Race and class, eh? Can’t win with ‘em, can’t win without ‘em. Order your popcorn now

By Chris Trotter*

How should Labour approach the by-election which must now be held in Tāmaki Makaurau? Occasioned by the death of Takutai Tarsh Kemp, the election to fill her now vacant parliamentary seat poses some sensitive questions for Labour’s leaders – Māori as well as Pakeha. How Chris Hipkins and his colleagues answer those questions will not only have a major impact on their relationship with Te Pāti Māori, but also with the Greens. Is Labour to be their ally – or their competitor?

The path of least resistance for Labour would be to simply not field a candidate against whoever Te Pāti Māori nominated to carry its banner in the by-election. This could be presented as both an acknowledgement of and a tribute to Kemp’s impressive contribution to the Māori communities of South and West Auckland. By effectively handing the seat back to Te Pāti Māori, Labour would be signalling its unwillingness to devalue Kemp’s legacy by forcing an ugly political contest upon constituents still mourning her loss.

Sitting out the by-election would be made an even more attractive proposition if it became clear that Te Pāti Māori’s president (and former Labour MP for Tāmaki Makaurau) John Tamihere, was likely to be its candidate. Going up against Tamihere would involve Labour in a symbolic tussle with more than a local standard-bearer, it would pit the political vehicle of the Centre-Left against the political vehicle of the Tangata Whenua. The loser of that struggle could hardly avoid sustaining serious electoral and ideological damage. The pay-off from Labour being seen to escort Tamihere back to a seat in the House of Representatives – as opposed to humiliating him at the ballot-box – would be substantial.

But, stepping away from the contest, or, even worse, being beaten by Te Pāti Māori, would leave Labour looking weak and lacking in confidence. It would also hand a very large stick to the parties of the Right. A stick they would use to beat Labour with all the way to the 2026 general election. Christopher Luxon, David Seymour and Winston Peters could individually and severally present Labour as a party enthralled to the social-cohesion-dissolving ideas and policies of Māori separatism: a process now so far advanced that Labour is unable and/or unwilling to stand up for a New Zealand composed of equal citizens with equal rights.

This is not a prospect which those Labour MPs determined to present themselves and their party as the “adults in the room” would welcome. These folk are determined to cast Labour as the only political force capable of replacing the National-Act-NZ First Coalition Government with something other than an infantile gaggle of ultra-leftists and ethno-nationalists.

The preferred candidate for this “adult” faction is probably Peeni Henare, the Labour incumbent of 2023 who lost the Tāmaki Makaurau seat to Kemp by just 42 votes. With Henare carrying Labour’s flag, the by-election could be presented as a reclamation. With Henare eulogising Kemp as a “sister” in the Māori cause, reclaiming his old seat could even be characterised as a kind of reconciliation. Henare joining the Te Pāti Māori MPs’ haka at the conclusion of the First Reading debate of the contentious Treaty Principles Bill might also ease locals’ acceptance of Labour’s return.

It is unlikely, however, that Te Pāti Māori will co-operate in such a demonstration of Labour’s “senior partner” status in Māori electoral politics, or, at least, not in the Tāmaki Makaurau seat. In 2026, Te Pāti Māori will be looking to challenge seriously, if not eliminate completely, Labour’s dominance of the Party Vote in the seven Māori seats. In 2023, that dominance was manifested in the 26,645 votes separating the two leading recipients of Party Votes cast by electors on the Māori Roll. Certainly, Te Pati Māori will not want to lose any of the six Māori seats it currently holds. Indeed, it will be looking to claim the one seat left in Labour’s hands, Ikaroa Rawhiti, at next year’s general election. That objective will be much more difficult to attain if, in the meantime, Te Pati Māori loses Tāmaki Makaurau!

There will be activists in both parties who reject entirely the whole idea of Labour and Te Pāti Māori joining hands and singing Kumbaya in a spirit of unity and reconciliation. Labour’s hard-liners are likely to argue strenuously that Labour can only end up being hurt by any widely-shared perception that it is strategically and/or ideologically aligned with Te Pāti Māori.

In particular, Māori voters registered on the General Roll (a choice which points to these electors seeing themselves as New Zealanders first and Māori second) may construe a too-close Labour alignment with Te Pāti Māori (and the Greens) as profoundly threatening to a status quo they strongly support, and decide to cast their votes for one of the right-wing parties. Labour’s hardliners will be quick to point out that their party cannot win unless the voter shift is almost entirely out of National. That will not happen if a majority of the electorate perceives Labour as standing, arms linked, with its radical allies.

Meanwhile, Te Pāti Māori hardliners will be hoping that Labour comes after their party with all its rhetorical guns blazing. Among the young Māori voters they are looking to mobilise, Kumbaya will elicit only eye-rolling disdain. But an angry Labour Party, hell-bent on defending the “white supremacist” legacy of “colonisation”, is more-or-less guaranteed to generate TikTok and Instagram responses powerful enough to get Shane Jones’ “nephs” off the couch.

The hardliners will not want “JT” to run. “Respect, bro, but you’re too old!” They will be looking for the South or West Auckland equivalent of the 33-year-old Zohran Mamdani who last week barnstormed his way to the Democratic Party’s nomination for Mayor of New York City. Someone like their very own Hana Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke whose spine-tingling pūkana from the floor of the House of Representatives went viral across the planet.

The choices which Chris Hipkins and his team will have to make in relation to the forthcoming by-election are daunting. He cannot avoid being guided by Labour’s Māori caucus, which itself cannot avoid being strongly influenced by Willie Jackson. It bears recalling that it was Jackson who masterminded Labour’s reclamation of all seven Māori seats from the Māori Party in 2017. This remarkable result was achieved by Jackson’s laser-like focus on the down-to-earth, bread-and-butter concerns of urban, working-class Māori. If he’s to do that again in Tāmaki Makaurau, he’ll first have to teach his boss how to think and talk like the radicals he has spent the best part of his career driving out of the Labour Party.

Race and class, eh? Can’t win with ‘em, can’t win without ‘em. Order your popcorn now.

*Chris Trotter has been writing and commenting professionally about New Zealand politics for more than 30 years. He writes a weekly column for interest.co.nz. His work may also be found at http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com.