The Labour Party has overtaken National in recent months and is now the most popular political party in most opinion polls.
A monthly Taxpayers’ Union–Curia released on Monday was the latest to confirm the trend but Labour has been ahead of National in five of the last 10 public polls and tied in a sixth.
National won 38% of voters in the October 2023 election but has rarely polled above 34% since the end of 2024. The party has now dropped to just 32% in our simple polling average.
Meanwhile, Labour has grown its support from just 27% at the election to be consistently polling above 30%. It has reached 33% in our average, one point ahead of National.
The party seems to be losing votes to the Labour opposition and to its unwanted coalition partner New Zealand First — which has climbed to 8.2% from 6% at the election.
NZ First is the only small party winning over voters. The Greens at 10.4%, Act at 8.9%, and Te Pāti Māori at 3.5% have not seen any significant changes relative to their election results.
An election held today would be tight, but the governing Coalition would narrowly retain a one seat majority if the result of our polling average were replicated in a 120 seat Parliament.
However, Te Pāti Māori won six electorates in 2023. If it did so again, that could add extra seats to the house and swing the balance of power towards the opposition parties.
The Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll found the economy or the cost of living were the top issues for most voters. Other topical subjects—like taxes, Te Tiriti, and housing—were front-of-mind for less than 3% of respondents.
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