Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is rejecting widespread talk about his leadership future as pressure mounts on the National Party following a damaging new poll.
Speaking on Newstalk ZB, Luxon said all of his ministers back him and none were telling him to consider his future. A rumour circulating widely was that Luxon would consider his options over the weekend.
“The only thing I’m considering is the future of our kids and our grandkids and that’s why I came to politics,” he told ZB, saying he thought the media had got “carried away”.
It follows his party’s disastrous 28.4% poll result released on Friday in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll taken earlier this week.
Earlier on Friday, political commentator Ben Thomas, who previously worked for the National Party, described the result as - “not great”.
“That mark under 30, it's obviously a psychological inflection point, but more importantly it changes the complexion of National's outlook for the election."
"So on 30%, 32% say, as they've [been] on a number of polls - historically a very low result for National but at the same time, the continuation of a National-led coalition government. [But] when National gets down to 28% without a corresponding increase in its coalition partners, then you're looking at a historically low result and being turfed out of Parliament after one term," Thomas said.
"That obviously puts a very, very different lens on it."
One Plus One director of government relations Esther Robinson, who previously worked for the Labour Party, said it was a poll that National couldn’t afford to ignore.
“As the backbenchers head back to their electorates this weekend, many will know that based on these numbers their jobs are at stake on Saturday, 7 November,” Robinson said.
“With support in the high-20s, a turnaround strategy is still possible for National, but intervention is needed."
“While smaller parties will play a decisive role in determining who forms the next government, the group of undecided voters remains significant this far out from an election. It suggests neither of the major parties has yet done enough to capture the attention of the voters who will ultimately decide the outcome," said Robinson.
Thomas said while the tangible effect of National heading into the election on a poll number “that is so much lower than they got in 2023 is obviously first of all, MPs in marginal seats are very much at risk”.
“And MPs on the list, which, because of the low number of MPs they got on the list in the last election, are very generally senior ministers, Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith, the speaker [Gerry Brownlee] ... they're the members of caucus who are most likely to be spooked by low polling numbers.”
12 Comments
No and right there starkly is the rub of the problem. The identity had little idea, aptitude and even less experience of politics to begin with and now ditto for understanding what that has led to in the end. It can only be assumed that it was a combination of naivety and ego that persuaded Mr Luxon that after not even one parliamentary term he could surmount the challenges and requirements of a prime ministership and now it would appear that those same characteristics cannot be budged. Ages ago these words resounded in the British parliament, and to be repeated in 1940, “You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!” Now in reality, this context today is hardly in the depth of those historic circumstances, but nonetheless, the message still rings true. Even though the subject has been sincere and well intended, the prospects of the nation are too vulnerable to allow one person to cause a change to a radical coalition government of extremism, and promoting racial selectivity.
Michael Laws on the Platform spelling it out
Losing Luxon now probably aint good for National I reckon. Too disruptive and it risks making the whole thing look like a panic move.... and voters can smell that a mile away.
Worked for Labour/Little&Jacinda in 2017 though...& Winstons already not going with Hipkins (yes, so he says atm..) so there's a roadmap
IMO it would have to be a woman to move the dial. The only demographic that consistently votes left in all RM polls is child bearing age women (I've previously challenged National supporters on this & their blinkered heads remain stuck in the sand).
Edit: Perhaps Luxon will now finally realise that he has nothing to lose in this last 6 months by delivering the changes he was elected to do…
…& it might even change the writing on the wall
Sitting on the fence permanently means they run the barbed wire through you
Yeh maybe but the Ardern switcheroo happend right before an election and Labour was already in opposition. Changing a PM mid term while governing is a different risk\calc. Nats would also have to think about whats gonna happen the day after, like who actually would take over and whether that really changes voters confidence. If the issue is voters not feeling that much has changed then swapping the leader prob aint gonna fix it.
Having said that… Stanford might at least make it look like someone grabbed the steering wheel...
They're at the point where they've got nothing to lose.
Maaaaaate if this was Aussie, the caucus would confirm support today, and knife him tomorrow!
I watched TV one news tonight and not a single thing mentioned re the poll results. That's very bizarre, even by TV one standards.
Maybe they're getting gunshy after getting called out on the gang numbers vs violent crime reduction a week ago
You won't see them publicise getting caught fudging their graph scales to favor Labour either
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2026/03/the_terrible_tvnz_story.html
More likely TVNZ considers their own polls so sacrosanct, the others cannot possibly even exist!
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