Latest political polling paints a concerning picture for the National Party, with it slipping to 28.4% support in the March Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll.
It comes as rumours circulate around political circles about leadership speculation in the party.
It gives the left-block a projected 61 seats if the results were to be reflected at the election, which is just enough to take power, against the right-bloc's 59 seats.
The poll suggested Labour support of decided voters was at 34.4%, up 0.3 percentage points and National was down 2.9 percentage points to 28.4%.
The Green Party was at 10.5%, while NZ First dropped 0.8 percentage points to 9.7% and ACT rose by the same percentage points to 7.5%.
Te Pati Māori was at 3.2% and 'other' was at 6.2%. Of those asked, 5.1% were undecided.
Translated to seats in Parliament, Labour had 44, National 36, the Green Party and NZ First both had 13, ACT had 10 and Te Pati Māori had 4.
For preferred PM, Labour leader Chris Hipkins was up 4.7 percentage points to 22.7% and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon was down 1 percentage point to 21%.
The poll was taken between March 1-3 of 1000 New Zealanders and weighted to the adult population. The maximum margin of error was +/- 3.1%.
52 Comments
It's around 8 months until the election.
That's a long time in politics, particularly considering the report on the government response to COVID will land before then.
That said, listening to RNZ journos get their undies in a bunch over the poll is kind of weirdly entertaining.
Most people are tired of reports on Covid. We've moved on.
Hear hear, leave it alone! And also leave Adern alone while they're at it! No wonder she doesn't want to live in NZ.
🥂🇦🇺
So, nothing new for the public to learn about what happened, and the response to events?
The enquiries made so far have essentially been made in camera, without the responsibile ministers publicly fronting.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/569906/coalition-parties-slam-form…
Many also have been adversely effected, and are still lacking accountability at the highest level. What functional democracy doesn't hold their highest to account for their actions?
Do you really think this inquiry is anything other than a chance to hang on on labour at election time?
If so I have a magnificent bridge to sell you.
No one who suffered anything adverse from COVID decisions will gain anything from this political circus. It though continue to allow Jacinda to live rent free in many peoples heads.
No one who suffered anything adverse from COVID decisions will gain anything from this political circus. It though continue to allow Jacinda to live rent free in many peoples heads.
The public have a responsibility, as much as possible, to hold the ruling elite to account.
Despite what some octogenarian politicians infer, I don't believe that is the point of the inquiry.
The COVID report is only relevant to a few fringe voters and those in the business of planning for future pandemic responses.
Well said
Does this mean swing voters will move to the left again at the next election?
With the pre-existing complaints about how Labour handled the end of the Covid epidemic (and gender identity related actions), I'd suggest voters just won't turn out at all.
Opportunities Party need to change their name again to The Other Party. They'd be over 6% already according to this poll.
I'll vote OP. Time has come to try something new. The current bunch are hopeless. The OP cannot possibly be worse
Yes, seems like a good time to introduce some innovative thinking into parliament.
So far me too. Yet to see anything inspiring from red or blue apart from flinging ill thought out crap like circus monkeys without considering the voters or the consequences.
The latest Roy Morgan poll, published on 3 March:
'A further 4.5% (up 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 4% (up 1.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) and a further 0.5% (down 1% point) who support other minor parties including the NewZeal, NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party (NZOFP), Vision NZ,
Conservative Party NZ, Women’s Right’s Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.'
That gives TOP nearly 90% of the 'Other' vote. If they score a similar proportion of the 6.2% 'Other' in the Taxpayers Union Curia poll they're looking at 5.5% support, which were it to hold on voting day would put them in Parliament with six seats.
Many people will feel much more comfortable at the prospect of a Labour-Greens-Opportunity government than one that included Te Paati Māori.
I wouldn't break out the bubbly just yet: polls tend to swing around a bit in election years, the minor parties around the margin of error.
The previous months Roy Morgan on 3rd Feb - "National opens largest lead on Labour for over a year"
True. I'm working on my 'if onlys' rather than 'what ifs'.
Their new leader was on 7 days. She seemed quite good, could be a vote winner if she can get some publicity.
She does, and I just sent them a little gift to help with publicity.
Leaders win votes, and it doesn’t take much to be better than the current pool:
- Luxon
- Hipkins
- Seymour
- Peters
- Swarbrick
They'd be a shoe-in if we had preferential voting
Luxon has no need to worry....he's sorted he tells us.
What he'd say to you is..."Byeee!"
He'll troddle off into the sunset with a golden handshake job offered by non other than his pal and mentor John Key.
Can't be far from the point where Luxon needs to jump ship before the election - both for himself and for the benefit of the party.
If we spend too much time discussing if he is the right pm, then he is not the right pm.
And obviously the nation too. It really cannot be ignored that he is not cut out for politics and what prompted him to think, after not even one term, that he would be a fit a for prime ministership is quite baffling. Underneath it all it suggests that the move was sincere and well intended which in a sad sort of way echoes the path and the fate of Todd Muller.
Funny looking back at the whole roadmap
No need for him to worry about leaving. Will be
re-elected if New Zealanders want this Country FIXED
Every 3 years a parade of barely educated clowns tries to convince us they're not clowns!
🤡
And with MMP each side is a three-ring circus
Lol...tres bon.
Whats that noise...oh it's the.snap of capital gains tax pulling up the spinnaker. Options.... join the rush to the specu exits or hunker down and start praying as capital losses accelerate.
But it's ok. They were only paper gains so not real.
I thought properties would never go up in value again, so what gains are you going to tax?
Touché
National needs a leader and not a paper shuffler. If Luxon comes on the radio I turn it off and I voted for him.
I rate Erica Sanford. Seems to deliver and not just talk. Comes across well in interviews. Much better energy. Her and Bishop would be interesting.
Yes she is and there is much to admire, but if the progress made under her direction in education is already showing up with far improved outcomes for NZ’s school children then it would be a shame to risk losing that momentum as this is where the prospects in life for every child start to be determined outside of the family. Mind you if I recall correctly, David Lange as PM took up the education portfolio so maybe more clout might be a good thing.
Hipkins was education minister for 6 years & his mum was involved in curriculum & NCEA development...look how well that turned out
So? What relevance could there possibly be in such a comparison? You appear to implying that Erica Stanford should now be positioned in the same category and of the same potential, respectively as Ministers of Education, as Chris Hipkins. Whereas the former, from all accounts, is beneficially progressing the portfolio and the latter did the opposite. For all my time on here I can’t think of anything that I could disagree with more
I could have explained / worded it better. I support Stanford, I have a relative with a couple of decades experience in education who speaks highly of her.
Was attempting to suggest that PM power isn't a prerequisite - Stanford is evidence of that
Stanford and Bishop would cast a remarkably similar silhouette to Ardern/Robertson
Do you mean Robertson?
Whoops correction made
PM Leadership above their pay grade. They are good at their present jobs let them get on with it
Hopefully Luxon will resign before he's pushed.
If he can resign tomorrow that'd be good, and while they're at it, Seymour and Peters can punch out too.
To be honest I don’t mind Luxon at all. He’s done a pretty good job at managing a difficult coalition, and before him the national party were in tatters with knives in backs everywhere.
Would much prefer Bishop or Stanford though. If they went Stanford I reckon they’re a shoe in as they’d get some female vote again.
I normally vote Labour but I’m not convinced by Hipkins. He seems to represent the “hand out my tax dollars to other people” side of the Labour Party I don’t like, and not the progressive side I do like.
A fair assessment, people underestimate the challenges of leadership in very complex circumstances with multiple players, agendas & the necessary rebuild of the undisciplined self entitled basket case that was the 2018-21 National party. I also was traditionally a Labour voter from Kirk until 2023 (a couple of exceptions), never again.
Luxon has proven to be a competent manager with interpersonal strengths in international leaders engagements (we knew that already): high public office demands something more of an x factor to maintain popularity, especially in difficult times.
"Luxon has proven to be a competent manager with interpersonal strengths in international leaders engagements (we knew that already):.."
Do we know that?...maybe compared to Trump, but that is hardly a measure of worth.
I suggest that the problem is that Luxon has spent many years engaging with international leaders at higher professional levels however usually misses the mark in connecting with the majority of voters who don't share their perspective.
I think its a shame. In public presentation & perception nowadays he's not the bright engaging & not up himself young guy I worked with in the 1990s (nor am I 🤣)
7 house Luxon and 5 house Helen where both rich pricks, but Helen seemed to be able to present as a common man... maybe it was the deep voice.
Luxon is just not JK (not that we need another)
But he was destined to be!?
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