New Zealand's government is welcoming news of a ceasefire in the Middle East.
United States President Donald Trump says the US will suspend bombing of Iran for two weeks, with US officials reportedly saying Israel has agreed to the ceasefire, and Iran reportedly saying talks will get underway on April 10. However, there appears to be some confusion over when the ceasefire will start, which the US says will be when the Strait of Hormuz opens.
Foreign Minister Winston Peters says NZ welcomes the US and Iranian announcements, as it welcomes all efforts to bring an end to the conflict, which is causing major disruption to global fuel supplies and has sent prices soaring.
"While this is encouraging news, there remains significant important work to be done in the coming days to secure a lasting ceasefire. We are grateful for the work of Pakistan, and others such as Turkiye and Egypt, to seek to find a solution to the crisis," says Peters.
“As we discussed with [US] Secretary of State Marco Rubio today, this conflict has had wide-ranging impacts and disruptions - for both those in the Middle East and further afield including in New Zealand and the Pacific region."
"In the coming days and weeks, New Zealand will stand in support of all efforts to bring about a lasting, durable end to this conflict," Peters says.
News of the ceasefire saw share markets and the NZ dollar rise, and oil prices drop.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says the ceasefire is "incredibly encouraging," noting potential for ships to move through the Strait of Hormuz.
"Given where we've been in the course of this week, where we saw a lot of escalatory rhetoric... This is a really promising and really encouraging move," Luxon told journalists in Wellington.
"It's the most encouraging news I think we've had in this conflict, absolutely. But I'm also acknowledging this is a really complex conflict...there's a long way to go."
34 Comments
Maybe Trump won afterall
Not sure what Trump has won. Doesn't seem to be too much in the ten point peace plan other than seeking nuclear weapons which apparently were obliterated:
- Complete cessation of the war on Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen
- Complete and permanent cessation of the war on Iran with no time limit
- Ending all conflicts in the region in their entirety
- Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
- Establishing a protocol and conditions to ensure freedom and security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz
- Full payment of compensation for reconstruction costs to Iran
- Full commitment to lifting sanctions on Iran
- Release of Iranian funds and frozen assets held by the United States
- Iran fully commits to not seeking possession of any nuclear weapons
- Immediate ceasefire takes effect on all fronts immediately upon approval of the above conditions
That's not the list I read:
- Complete cessation of the war on Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen
- Complete and permanent cessation of the war on Iran with no time limit
- Ending all conflicts in the region in their entirety
- Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
- Establishing a protocol and conditions to ensure freedom and security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz
- Full payment of compensation for reconstruction costs to Iran
- Full commitment to lifting sanctions on Iran
- Release of Iranian funds and frozen assets held by the United States
- Iran fully commits to not seeking possession of any nuclear weapons
- Immediate ceasefire takes effect on all fronts immediately upon approval of the above conditions
It's hard to know what the wins are for America without knowing their goals at the start.
Was it regime change? That's so far failed.
Was it removing the nuclear threat? Possible success but no detail yet - so far perhaps worse than the situation before Trump tore up the original agreement. We clearly can't believe statements from the Trump regime on this as they have been so self-contradicting - how many times have they completely destroyed the nuclear program now?
Was it simply to degrade Iran's capabilities? A limited success, but clearly they still have drones and missiles to use. And it looks like no requirement to limit their military development in the future
Another big question is the detail of reopening the Strait. If Iran get their 1-2 million dollars per ship, that's a huge win for them.
You changed your list!
How many of those are wins for Iran? Just 6, 7, 8.
DJT is probably constantly changing his list too.
Neither will be negotiating what is best for their country, just what looks best for the leaders. Both sides will claim a massive win.
As far as I can tell, Iran has been smashed and the US hasn't been touched.
Apparently Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Caine has a habit of asking in conference “then what” and indeed, it is a very good question. There is nothing here to stop the Iranian regime from recommencing production of a nuclear bomb nor from closing the Straits of Hormuz at will. Yes an agreement, treaty or whatever may be concluded but as Trump himself has expressed there is nothing to stop the Iranians from abandoning it and now even more significantly the Iranian hierarchy, in particular the Republican Guard senior officers, have proved to themselves that they can remain unbreachable. Be that as it may, for the sake of the hard pressed Iranian population, a cessation of hostilities and deferment of destruction of utilities essential to their daily life, will clearly be very welcome.
DJT is probably constantly changing his list too.
Changing of a singular brain cell would double his mental capacity
1-3 and 5 are generally good for Iran and their allies too. And only 9 is a "concession" on their side and that's not really offering more than what Obama had already got out of them previously.
JJ is a classic example of what happens when you start from a skewed base-line.
This is a massive change to global politics - a step-down after a lot of pressure. It isn't about 'Iran or the US winning' - it is about hegemony failure, human overshoot and degrowth, and corruption doubling-down to save its skin.
The major hegemony of this last 70 years is disintegrating. I've long opined here that a going-down Empire has to go to war early - the pretender(s) have to delay as long as possible. Clearly the US has been on the way down for some time - decades - but the chosen metric, GDP, fails to measure that.
It has shot its bolt and been found wanting. Global leaders have noticed; 40 got together ex the US, to discuss the future - and I don't think that included China? The US is being sidelined - better-put, it has sidelined itself.
The new order will include China, Russia, Iran and India - plus satellites like Malaysia. The new out-pirates will be what was the first world - likely including NZ. We were lucky in our timing; we got the best of the best of times, for longer than most. Now we need to become self-sufficient and resilient - because this was a curtain-raiser, if it isn't Act 1.
Anyone running a book on when this 'ceasefire' will start and how long it will last?
It appears all 3 sides have totally incompatible definitions of its terms.
Or they are all wording the conditions differently to their people. The main part of the agreement will be that each leader can say they won.
What agreement?
I rest my case (upthread).
This is a ceasefire - not an agreement. Hard to know who benefits from the breather - the US Navy is tired, the Patriots seem to have been fired, logistics are against them. The Iranians would have benefited from continuance - they seem to have the longer capacity.
But the world is into a new phase of permanently 'more expensive' energy. this was just the way that inevitability played out as players jostled for position.
The great danger zone is now embedded and it is highly precarious indeed. The Israeli & American attacks have exhausted legitimate and reachable military targets yet Iran still controls the Straits, retains subject uranium and continues to counter strike. Thus, just like Adolf vis a vis London, what’s left to do but switch to civil utilities as targets.The Middle East now has even more so, a very large and vehement enemy in Iran, on its doorstep. It is difficult to see anything that has changed now for the better and easy to see that long term the region will be entirely worse off. Obviously the nations concerned will have figured that out and therefore their reaction, now underway at the UN, is one of the key factors that needs to be considered as being relevant.
Define 'better', Foxy.
Seems to me that is arbitrary
You overlook it was expressed in the negative. Or perhaps you would see it as more relevant to align with the EQC assessor that our busted wooden front door frame would be screwed and glued back together as replacing it would be betterment. Reasonable parable that, with concern to the topic, if I do say so myself.
It may not even be a ceasefire...apparently missiles and drones have been launched since the announcement....
Is it in Irans, Russias or Chinas best interest if this ceasefire becomes permanent? They've got the West over a barrel (pun intended) so I'd say they'd like to see it continue that way. I don't think Israel will be too forthcoming with a long term cease fire either. Might be a good time to buy more USOY soon (sorry Murray).
Maybe Winston has more influence than we thought!
:D
Nah - everything he says Peters out
Oh, wait...
Everything going according to plan maybe. This could explain the enormous effort and sacrifice to get the downed airman back. An airman PoW would have been an Iranian pawn that the US didn't want to deal with right now.
It was unusual that a full colonel was in combat in the first place. Unusual too that the colonel dialled in his position with “god is good,” which confused the rescuers, whereas it would surely have been more effective to have a predetermined call identification code set up. Maybe he shouldn’t have been on the ride?
There's a lot that is a bit unusual about the whole story. If it was indeed just a rescue of an airman, that first, probably quite cheap, missile that took down the F-15 resulted in quite a lot of airframe damage overall - 1 x F-15, 2 x C-130, 1 x A-10, 1 x MQ-9 and 1 or 2 helicopters.
I knew Trump was going to WIN
It is a mistake to doubt the ways of the God-Emperor.
Read your link again. Carefully (my better half used to be a critical-literacy guru - it helps).
Chevron are now importing 250,000 barrels a day, eh? Someone wanting to hear what they want to hear, might assume that started with Trump.
Someone who knows how to think, might check the facts.
Which are that Chevron was always importing 200,000 barrels, under the previous regime.
And the rest is going to? They fudge that - because as far as I'm aware, it still goes to China.
Welcome back. Better as an adjective, adverb, noun or verb appears to have attracted your interest this evening. My edition of Chambers dedicates three and a half inches to explaining a variety of nuances and meaning. Perhaps your guru might agree then, with consideration to all of those, that its usage is should not easily taken as being literal, let alone arbitrary, unless of course, it is approached from a rather stiff point of view. Just jesting. Sleep well.
Kotter came to mind.
Mediocre
".... that Chevron was always importing 200,000 barrels, under the previous regime."
A lot less than that and only to repay debt owed to Chevron.
Oh, it would appear then that bitter would be the better adjective to discuss this evening?
It was only a nibble
I’ll raise your nibble to a quibble but more expressly, as before, sleep well. The opposite of that was definitely what I mostly remember about MacBeth being played at school and likely the nub of the insomnia that ensued especially when the Scotch wore off.
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