National has dropped back below 30% in the latest 1News Verian Poll, falling to 29%, but is still ahead of Labour's 27% support.
National - 29% (down 3 percentage points)
Labour - 27% (steady)
The Green Party - 15% (down 1 percentage point)
ACT - 12% (up 1 percentage point)
NZ First - 10% (up 2 percentage points)
Opportunity - 6% (down 1 percentage point)
Te Pāti Māori - 0.1% (down 0.6 percentage points)
In last week's 1News Poll, National had risen to 32%.
Translated to seats, in one scenario the poll assumes Te Pāti Māori wins four electorate seats and the Te Tai Tokerau Party wins one seat, causing a five seat overhang. That pushes the Parliament seat total up to 125.
The coalition bloc of National (on 34), ACT (15) and NZ First (12) would have 61 seats. Without an overhang of this possible size this would usually be enough to take power. However, more seats would be needed to govern under this arrangement.
Labour (33), the Greens (18) and Opportunity (8) would have 59 seats, so would need Te Pāti Māori to push a deal over the line.
In another scenario where Te Pāti Māori wins only one seat and the Te Tai Tokearu Party does not win a seat, the coalition bloc's 61 seats would be enough to govern.
For preferred PM, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon was at 24%, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins was on 18%.
The poll was taken between October 21-25, with 1000 New Zealand adults via mobie or online panel. The maximum sampling error was approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level.
Last week, the Post-Freshwater Poll, funded by Infrastructure NZ, put the Opportunity Party on just 5.4%, meaning if replicated at the election, the party would only just pass the 5% threshold to get into Parliament. Released a day before overseas voting begins and less than a week ahead of advanced voting, both Labour and National remained wallowing in the 20s.
Labour was on 28.7% and National on 27.6%. Both parties were up 1 percentage point since the last poll in September.
The Green Party was at 14.3%, NZ First at 11.8% and ACT on 9%. Te Pāti Māori was at 2%.
The poll surveyed 1,458 New Zealand adults between October 9-19, with a margin of error of +/- 3%.
Last week's 1News poll had Opportunity pushing up to 8%.
Earlier this month, the Taxpayer's Union-Curia Poll showed National at 28.5%, Labour on 28.2%, but with Opportunity below the 5% threshold at 4.8%.
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