Jason Wong

About

Jason Wong is BNZ’s currency strategist, producing analysis that informs the NZD view. He is also a part of National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Global FX Strategy team, which covers currency markets more broadly, with a focus on the G10 currencies.

Member for

8 years 3 months

Latest articles

More pressure to the downside

Record low interest rates and yields both locally and internationally. US energy debt defaults catch market attention

26th Feb 16, 8:08am

by Jason Wong

Record low interest rates and yields both locally and internationally. US energy debt defaults catch market attention

Selling pressure on GBP abates

GBP bounce could be temporary event; market ignores 6% drop in China's stockmarket; US durable goods orders data challenges view of slumping manufacturing sector due to strong USD

26th Feb 16, 8:07am

by Jason Wong

GBP bounce could be temporary event; market ignores 6% drop in China's stockmarket; US durable goods orders data challenges view of slumping manufacturing sector due to strong USD

The direction is down

Local swap rates fall and further falls are possible. Global moves add to downward pressures. Eyes on NZGB tender

25th Feb 16, 8:10am

by Jason Wong

Local swap rates fall and further falls are possible. Global moves add to downward pressures. Eyes on NZGB tender

Oil price continues to drive market gyrations

Oil prices continue to decline, inefficient & uneconomic oil producers will have to get out; weak economic data contributing to risk-off tone; relentless selling of GBP

25th Feb 16, 8:00am

by Jason Wong

Oil prices continue to decline, inefficient & uneconomic oil producers will have to get out; weak economic data contributing to risk-off tone; relentless selling of GBP

Saudis won't cut oil production levels

Oil price down as hopes fade for coordinated policy effect on supply; GBP continues to be hit on Brexit concerns; NZD weakens to 200 day moving average as risk-off mood prevails

24th Feb 16, 8:28am

by Jason Wong

Oil price down as hopes fade for coordinated policy effect on supply; GBP continues to be hit on Brexit concerns; NZD weakens to 200 day moving average as risk-off mood prevails

Inflation expectations rule

Local rates tracking lower with offshore hedge funds convinced the RBNZ will be 'forced into easing policy again'

24th Feb 16, 7:52am

by Jason Wong

Local rates tracking lower with offshore hedge funds convinced the RBNZ will be 'forced into easing policy again'

NZD moves above 200-day moving average

Next technical level for NZD/USD is 69c; GBP/USD plunged to a 7-year low; oil production freeze deal still alive; risk on environment as oil prices & equity markets rise strongly

23rd Feb 16, 8:25am

by Jason Wong

Next technical level for NZD/USD is 69c; GBP/USD plunged to a 7-year low; oil production freeze deal still alive; risk on environment as oil prices & equity markets rise strongly

Bonds don't react to commodity action

Currencies and equities absorb all the commodity impacts but bond prices and yields hold in a tight range, globally and locally

23rd Feb 16, 8:04am

by Jason Wong

Currencies and equities absorb all the commodity impacts but bond prices and yields hold in a tight range, globally and locally

Risk off

EU worries that negative interest rates undermine bank stability; US inflation up; Yen strong; UK split on June Brexit vote; commodity currencies weaker

22nd Feb 16, 7:56am

by Jason Wong

EU worries that negative interest rates undermine bank stability; US inflation up; Yen strong; UK split on June Brexit vote; commodity currencies weaker

Diverging tracks

US inflation higher than expected; chances of Fed hike rise. NZ inflation expectations lower than expected; chances of OCR cut rise

22nd Feb 16, 7:49am

by Jason Wong

US inflation higher than expected; chances of Fed hike rise. NZ inflation expectations lower than expected; chances of OCR cut rise

Next BoE rate move could be a hike

BoE Governor Carney says next move for rates were "more likely than not to rise"; market pricing in slim chance of RBNZ rate cut in March; investors attracted to NZ's higher long term rates

5th Feb 16, 8:39am

by Jason Wong

BoE Governor Carney says next move for rates were "more likely than not to rise"; market pricing in slim chance of RBNZ rate cut in March; investors attracted to NZ's higher long term rates

Weaker growth picture in US

Expectations of Fed rate hike ease on economic outlook; ECB & BoJ fail to talk down their currencies; USD weak across the board, NZD/USD over 67c

5th Feb 16, 8:27am

by Jason Wong

Expectations of Fed rate hike ease on economic outlook; ECB & BoJ fail to talk down their currencies; USD weak across the board, NZD/USD over 67c

FX markets in 'crazy session'

USD weaker as NY Fed chief notes tighter conditions. NZD gains on both jobless rate fall and Wheeler comments. Global equities weaker while commodities gain

4th Feb 16, 8:10am

by Jason Wong

USD weaker as NY Fed chief notes tighter conditions. NZD gains on both jobless rate fall and Wheeler comments. Global equities weaker while commodities gain

Markets push back OCR cut expectations

Wheeler's speech changes market perceptions, emphasises the flexibity he has, de-emphases the focus on the headline inflation rate

4th Feb 16, 8:01am

by Jason Wong

Wheeler's speech changes market perceptions, emphasises the flexibity he has, de-emphases the focus on the headline inflation rate

Oil-equities correlation reactivated

Oil majors thrashed with oversupply and softening demand; EU labour markets improve; NZD recovers quickly after less-than-expected GDT fall

3rd Feb 16, 7:51am

by Jason Wong

Oil majors thrashed with oversupply and softening demand; EU labour markets improve; NZD recovers quickly after less-than-expected GDT fall

NZ Govt bond yields stand out

UST yields keep falling but still attractive to yield investors; NZGBs even more so. Prospects for further Fed rate hikes diminishing by the day

3rd Feb 16, 7:40am

by Jason Wong

UST yields keep falling but still attractive to yield investors; NZGBs even more so. Prospects for further Fed rate hikes diminishing by the day

Only one US rate hike priced in

Risk off tone can't prevent US treasury yields from climbing; NZ swap rates moving to the beat of the offshore markets; 2-year swap rate 2.60%, 2s-10s spread remains in tight range

2nd Feb 16, 8:18am

by Jason Wong

Risk off tone can't prevent US treasury yields from climbing; NZ swap rates moving to the beat of the offshore markets; 2-year swap rate 2.60%, 2s-10s spread remains in tight range

US data undershooting expectations

Citigroup's economic surprise index falls to 8-month low as US data fails to excite; Chinese PMI falls to lowest level since August 2012; portfolio flows rather than fundamentals sends NZD higher

2nd Feb 16, 8:12am

by Jason Wong

Citigroup's economic surprise index falls to 8-month low as US data fails to excite; Chinese PMI falls to lowest level since August 2012; portfolio flows rather than fundamentals sends NZD higher

Commodities up, but NZD flat

Japan rate move causes odd currency reactions. Low US growth data hid some positive consumer drivers at work. Markets liked both events. Stocks and oil rose

1st Feb 16, 8:11am

by Jason Wong

Japan rate move causes odd currency reactions. Low US growth data hid some positive consumer drivers at work. Markets liked both events. Stocks and oil rose

Japan changes the risk outlook

Shock adoption of negative rates in Japan sees bonds rally and yields tumble, but limits of monetary policy 'generosity' edge closer

1st Feb 16, 8:04am

by Jason Wong

Shock adoption of negative rates in Japan sees bonds rally and yields tumble, but limits of monetary policy 'generosity' edge closer

RBNZ likely to be happy with market reaction

'Well-crafted' RBNZ statement sets the right tone, conveying a level of uncertainty that markets absorbed with respect

29th Jan 16, 8:06am

by Jason Wong

'Well-crafted' RBNZ statement sets the right tone, conveying a level of uncertainty that markets absorbed with respect

Economic data flow weak

US durable goods orders and pending home sales were weak; Euro-area confidence indicators underwhelmed; dovish tone to part of RBNZ's statement; Fonterra forecast milk price slashed again

29th Jan 16, 8:05am

by Jason Wong

US durable goods orders and pending home sales were weak; Euro-area confidence indicators underwhelmed; dovish tone to part of RBNZ's statement; Fonterra forecast milk price slashed again

Oil rallies, stocks up

Commodity currencies gain but Fed and RBNZ will set tone and determine whether the rally can be sustained

28th Jan 16, 7:49am

by Jason Wong

Commodity currencies gain but Fed and RBNZ will set tone and determine whether the rally can be sustained

Traders expect to be disappointed

Rates on hold in a risk-off environment. Low corporate bond issuance. Central banks likely to sit tight

28th Jan 16, 7:43am

by Jason Wong

Rates on hold in a risk-off environment. Low corporate bond issuance. Central banks likely to sit tight

Markets rally, ignore China

Strong rebound in oil prices on producer cooperation talk and uptick in US consumer confidence. Fitch changes NZ outlook to 'stable'

27th Jan 16, 8:10am

by Jason Wong

Strong rebound in oil prices on producer cooperation talk and uptick in US consumer confidence. Fitch changes NZ outlook to 'stable'