Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news we are about to join the rest of the world in an Omicron sickness wave.
But first up, signs that Omicron in the US is about to pass its peak are apparently good. A fast fall-away after that is expected. And they say early data on the booster shot shows it should have a long-lasting effect.
The US Conference Board leading index is marginally better for December, and they see US 2022 real growth at a healthy +3.5%. The Atlanta Fed's view is the US economy is expanding currently at a fast +5% pa rate, and the current blue chip consensus is even above that.
All eyes will be on Wall Street tomorrow after a week of sharp retreats. And on Thursday (NZT) the Fed will report its latest signals, which will be watched with unusual interest given the spike in inflation.
Canada's November retail sales results were released over the weekend and they were disappointing.
In China, ahead of both the Winter Olympics and the big Chinese New Year break, the economic news-flow is light, even for their closely controlled media situation. However one item does seem interesting - the artificial snow needed for the Beijing Winter Olympics is so much that making it is straining Beijing's water supplies. And Beijing is in a natural desert anyway with water stress always an issue. These Olympics might leave a legacy of this situation being worse.
Japanese inflation came in at +0.8% in December and higher than for November. But their core inflation rate was unchanged at +0.5% although that is its post-pandemic high.
Hong Kong business confidence (as measured in a Hong Kong Government survey) is flat. But at least it isn't retreating.
Consumer sentiment is flagging again in the EU as well.
In Germany, their new coalition government wants to attract 400,000 qualified worker immigrants per year to tackle both a demographic imbalance and labour shortages in key sectors that risk undermining the recovery from the pandemic.
In Australia, some key analysts are now saying that the RBA will abandon its current no-rate-change settings much sooner than anticipated, with rate rises to start in 2022. Westpac sees two hikes in 2022 from the current 0.10% and a regular set until 2024. ANZ agrees with Westpac that all this guidance will change at the RBA meeting on February 1, 2022 (tomorrow week). But the new expected track is far slower than what is proposed for New Zealand by the RBNZ which is already well down the path the Aussies are contemplating.
In NSW, there were 20,324 new community cases reported yesterday, a rise again, now with 238,645 active locally-acquired cases, but a high 34 daily deaths. There are now 2,712 in hospital there. In Victoria they reported 13,0917 more new infections yesterday, a fall. There are now 191,058 active cases in that state - and there were 14 more deaths. Queensland is reporting 11,947 new cases and 10 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 2,062 yesterday with no more deaths. The ACT has 694 new cases with no deaths and Tasmania 625 new cases. Overall in Australia, 48,979 new cases have been reported.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.77% and up +1 bp from this time Saturday and the same level as this time last week. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today unchanged at +75 bps. Their 1-5 curve is little-changed at +101 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also little-changed at +171 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -2 bps at 1.88%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.73%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is unchanged at 2.52%. A week ago it was at 2.47 so it up a net +5 bps since then.
The price of gold starts today at US$1836/oz and +US$4 firmer than where we left it on Saturday.
And oil prices start today lower by about -50 USc at just over US$84.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$87/bbl. For the week that is a +US$2/bbl rise however.
The Kiwi dollar will open today weaker again at 67.1 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are firmish at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we are a tad lower at 59.2 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts the week at 71.6, unchanged from where we left it on Saturday but with a -0.9% devaluation in a week and a -1.6% devaluation since the start of the year.
The bitcoin price has moved lower again, down -8.2% to US$35,297, most of that on Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.7%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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