What happened Tuesday

Business / news

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; no retail rate changes, service sector struggles, carbon price higher, Aussie CPI beats estimate, swaps stable, NZD weaker, & more

25th Jan 22, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Welcome to our first of these daily summaries in 2022. Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.

SERVICE SECTOR STRUGGLES TO AVOID ZOMBIE STATUS
The New Zealand services sector is now neither expanding nor contracting - and that is an improvement from November where is was definitely contracting. New order levels are still growing but the pace is slowing and quite quickly. Although the PSI tracks the NZIER's QSBO, that latter confidence survey is far more negative than the PSI. In comparison, the local factory sector is still expanding at a reasonably healthy pace, just not services. The Red traffic light setting shouldn't affect too many actual businesses outside tourism and hospo, and they are turning into zombie sectors anyway (kept alive only by taxpayers).

MAINTAINING A SUBSTANTIAL DISCOUNT
The carbon price has now risen to $75/NZU, a rise of about +$5 since the start of the year or +7% within 25 days, and more than doubling within a year. (One NZU is 1 tonne of CO2 equivalent.) The EU Carbon Permit price is now at €84/tonne and is shifted also by the exchange rate, so it is now equivalent to NZ$142/NZU. A year ago the EU price was €33 or NZ$56/tonne. So since then the NZ$ price has risen from 44% of the EU price, to now where it is 53% of the EU price.

WHEN A -1.1% FALL IS 'GOOD'
We noted the awful -3.5% performance of the NZX50 last week in yesterday's review. But we should note that the eight-company property sector in the NZX50 was down much less last week (-1.1%) and for the year is still up +1.9%. Last week's worst listed property companies were Investore (IPL, #37) down -2.1% and Stride (SPG, #31) down -1.9%.

A LID ON?
Australian December CPI came in higher than anticipated, but not hugely higher. They say their consumer prices rose 3.5% in 2021, above the expected 3.2% and higher than the annual rate in September of 3.0%. Housing and transport costs kept the pressure on. Clothing and tech kept it restrained there. Given how much CPI increases have beaten forecasts in other countries, this Aussie report isn't extreme. But it is above their RBA target level, and rising. And it is the highest rate there since 2014.

A SHARP RETREAT
Australian business confidence fell sharply in December, according to the widely-watched NAB business sentiment report, as the spread of the Omicron variant threatened to dampen their economy’s post-lockdown momentum. The fall in business conditions was driven by the employment component, which fell despite strong jobs growth reported in official data, reflecting the complexity of their labour market situation as businesses faced growing worker shortages and the prospect of a ‘shadow lockdown’ through the summer.

EYES ON THE RBA
Keep an eye out for the RBA policy review on Tuesday, February 1. Also we should note that there is significant event risk ahead in New Zealand on Thursday this week with our CPI release (markets expect 5.7%, up from 4.9% in September).

A SOLID EXPANSION
South Korea reported its Q4 GDP result today and it was impressive, up +4.1% and its fastest annual pace in 11 years.

SUSTAINABLE?
But some key commodity prices are just getting excessively frothy. Tin is at a new all-time high with another huge jump today. Nickel is even more frothy. Dr Copper is doing nothing however, although aluminium is making another run at it. Iron ore is beholden to China's slowdown (a bit like copper) so isn't faring in all this froth.

LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In NSW, there were 18,512 new community cases reported yesterday, a big increase from the prior day, now with 209,326 active locally-acquired cases, and 29 daily deaths. There are now 2,943 in hospital there and a record high. In Victoria they reported 14,836 more new infections yesterday, also a big rise. There are now 183,154 active cases in that state - and there were also 29 more deaths there too. Queensland is reporting 9,546 new cases and 11 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 1869 yesterday with 5 more deaths. The ACT has 904 new cases and one death, and Tasmania 643 new cases. Overall in Australia, 46,310 new cases have been reported so far although not all counts are in yet. In New Zealand, there were 37 cases stopped at the border, plus 25 new cases in the community. Testing shows 8 had Omicron. There are 467 active cases in isolation, a fall. More than 1 mln booster shots have now been given, 57% of those eligible.

GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trading, gold is at US$1840 and up +US$7 from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER AGAIN
Wall Street sank hard earlier today - and then it staged a rather remarkable recovery, with the S&P500 ending up +0.3%. The recovery was even more pronounced on the NASDAQ, enough to draw out the cynics in full voice. But that hasn't helped Tokyo which is down -2.1% in morning trade. Hong Kong is down -1.3% in early trade and Shanghai is down -0.6% in their early trade. The ASX200 has shed -2.4% in early afternoon trade, while the NZX50's drop is a more restrained -0.3% near our close.

SWAPS STABLE
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to be slightly softer. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 1.08%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is up +4 bps at 1.96%. The China Govt 10yr is down -1 bp at 2.70%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.55% and back above the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.54% (down -1 bp). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.77% having fallen overnight and risen back to yesterday's level now.

NZ DOLLAR STILL SOFT
The Kiwi dollar has stayed down and is now lower at 66.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 93.5 AUc giving up the overnight gains when the restrained CPI was released. Another jolt could come with the RBA announcement. Against the euro we are soft at 59.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now just under 71.4 and marginally lower.

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BITCOIN IN MINOR BUT VOLATILE RECOVERY
Bitcoin has tried to stage a recovery of sorts today. It is now at US$36,062 and up +0.5% from this time yesterday. But it did slip to US$32,984 in between, so the recovery is larger from there. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme at just over +/- 6.8%.

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Source: RBNZ

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76 Comments

by J.C. | 25th Jan 22, 4:25pm 1643081112

Given how much CPI increases have beaten forecasts in other countries, this Aussie report isn't extreme.

Yes, but remember that these forecasts and reported metrics are almost impossible to compare across countries. They're only directional at best. The RBA is a addicted to monetary inflation and the associated bubbles as any other.

by fortunr | 25th Jan 22, 4:40pm 1643082027

Expect the next CPI result to be north of 6%. This will force a 50 bps raise of the OCR this month. This is only the very beginning of a very significant upward adjustment of interest rates in NZ, which will likely see an OCR peak above 4%.

by J.C. | 25th Jan 22, 4:50pm 1643082645

We should call you 'Near-term Nostradamus.' Nevertheless, I think directionally there is a good chance you're correct. I measure the stress levels among the ruling elite by the redness in Adrian Orr's face and the lower incidence of smirks on Robbo's face.

by Officebound | 25th Jan 22, 5:27pm 1643084856

I'm picking 7%.

The period it's replacing from last year's stats was a net-0% quarter, so every bit of inflation in the last quarter goes straight on the headline number.

Has there been 2.1% inflation jump in that quarter, same as the previous quarter? Yes to my eye.

by Squishy | 25th Jan 22, 11:49pm 1643107762

There is no release valve for inflation pressure at the moment, or as long as borders remain closed, and RBNZ have fallen a long way behind the economy on the OCR. This'll probably be a scorcher.

by MortgageBelt | 25th Jan 22, 4:48pm 1643082525

Australia - the lucky country: Mortgages at 2.5%, no more COVID lockdowns like NZ, businesses and individuals left to get on with their lives, higher wages, 9 - 17% credited to their Super, and a backbone to stand up to China.

by J.C. | 25th Jan 22, 4:52pm 1643082776

I think Aussie is a potential disaster waiting to happen despite all their "luck."

by RickStrauss | 25th Jan 22, 4:59pm 1643083165

Did you not even read the article before commenting?

by J.C. | 25th Jan 22, 5:10pm 1643083852

You referring to moi? Please elaborate.

by RickStrauss | 26th Jan 22, 3:32pm 1643164340

Nah, MortgageBelt

by Hardly | 25th Jan 22, 5:01pm 1643083289

Don’t forget a country that is basically a big bowl of red dust with increasing temperatures and decreasing rain due to global warming.

Edit: and bush fires, lots of bush fires. And poisonous animals, lots of them too.

by billsay | 25th Jan 22, 5:50pm 1643086240

There appear to be two different Australia's.... one in which there are no restrictions and "business/individuals left to get on with their lives" - and the other one where (for instance NSW) according to the Sydney Morning Herald today "NSW has extended its pandemic restrictions for another month, as high case numbers and COVID-19 hospitalisations continue". Covid hospitalisation is at record levels in this version of Australia.

by MortgageBelt | 25th Jan 22, 6:34pm 1643088864

NZ is now in effective lockdown. Public service workers, council staff, many company office staff all sent home to WFH this week - probably for months.

Universities & tertiary education all mandated losing x% of their students who will try to study online or not be permitted to enrol.

Restaurants & cafes losing customers, city centre’s emptying out, staff fearful and ‘informing’ on mask non-wearing etc, hotels emptying out.

by Pa1nter | 25th Jan 22, 6:44pm 1643089454

When is not a lockdown a lockdown?

When mortgagebelt says so.

by JimboJones | 25th Jan 22, 6:56pm 1643090163

You can’t live in Auckland if you think this is what a lockdown is like.

by MortgageBelt | 25th Jan 22, 7:28pm 1643092129

Soon to be endemic if Omicron can spread in a reasonable manner:

https://youtu.be/U3W84wb5jKo

by Pa1nter | 25th Jan 22, 7:39pm 1643092774

That's also what the government is saying.

You either aren't paying attention, or need to create some massive strawperson.

by MortgageBelt | 25th Jan 22, 8:01pm 1643094082

Mainly Chris Hopkins.

He seems to be the messenger of hope, while the PM locks NZ down - risking Delta dominating.

NZers have never had a reasoned viewpoint on COVID such as Dr John Campbell to talk through the realistic experiences and endpoint.

by Pa1nter | 25th Jan 22, 7:59pm 1643093942

There's no "lockdown", it's the system we've known about for months now. You're encouraged to work from home, but it's not mandatory, you can go pretty much anywhere and do anything - except go to a concert, and concerts the world over are still getting cancelled, because covid in a community isn't very compatable with the logistics of trying to run a concert tour.

Maybe it's a memory problem, do you forget what actual lockdown is like?

by Pa1nter | 25th Jan 22, 8:18pm 1643095100

NZers have never had a reasoned viewpoint on COVID such as Dr John Campbell to talk through the realistic experiences and endpoint.

We have almost followed what he would recommend to the letter.

Where you are getting confused is some of his commentary is UK specific, on the basis that they couldn't contain covid, and have already gone through a significant amount of pain.

by MortgageBelt | 25th Jan 22, 8:39pm 1643096396

The NZ Govt is trying to stop the achievement of reaching an endemic state, or significantly delaying it. Which will cause more problems across multiple spheres.

Compare John Campbell reading the data transparently and the dispassionate look at various countries’ experiences with NZs extreme/emotional panic stricken academics advising the govt and spreading fear to the population.

NZ really is locking down - under another name. In fact it’s worse than level 4 in some ways especially within workplaces.

by Pa1nter | 25th Jan 22, 8:49pm 1643096981

The government accepts it'll be everywhere, but doesn't want it running rampant, for reasons that should be self evident. Employers want as few staff out of action at the same time, customers don't want to get sick just by going somewhere, emergency services need minimum staffing requirements, no one in their right might would willingly want this everywhere and anywhere all at the same time.

You're making very liberal interpretations, making other things up, and flat out ignoring basic common sense aspects around disease control and commercial sensibilities.

You keep talking about panic and fear and that seems more attribute to your own views than most people's.

by MortgageBelt | 25th Jan 22, 9:38pm 1643099922

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300501679/omicron-sio…

“Really worried” about the plan. Not the stance of a considered advisor helping NZers confidence.

by Pa1nter | 25th Jan 22, 9:53pm 1643100802

That article refutes most of what you're claiming about lockdowns and the governments approach.

Your grasp of the situation involves a lot of imagination and logical leaps.

by mfd | 25th Jan 22, 9:54pm 1643100864

She is complaining it isn't strict enough - the exact opposite of what you are complaining about. Your argument is all over the place. Our current settings are far softer than the old level 4, even the old level 3, which is what Siouxsie is complaining about. This is because the government has accepted Omicron can't be stopped and will spread through the country, just as you wish - this is no secret, messaging has been very clear to get ready to catch Covid.

by MortgageBelt | 25th Jan 22, 10:07pm 1643101662

Exactly - the advisors are inciting fear and pressuring the Govt.

Painter said “You keep talking about panic and fear and that seems more attribute to your own views than most people”. But I was pointing out the fear messaging from the team of academics which is not helping.

by Hardly | 25th Jan 22, 10:19pm 1643102365

The academics are health professionals. It’s their job to panic about people dying.

by Pa1nter | 25th Jan 22, 10:21pm 1643102502

Is Siouxsie Wiles an official government advisor, or a scientist the media call upon for a critique of what the government is doing?

by mfd | 25th Jan 22, 10:22pm 1643102574

So the problem is the advisors now? I thought it was government policy you didn't like, but they are resisting the more strident calls from academics.

by Pa1nter | 25th Jan 22, 10:36pm 1643103384

The train of thought is all over the map.

by CWBW | 25th Jan 22, 4:51pm 1643082678

Bitcoin has tried to stage a recovery of sorts today.

Usually that's the preferred method of slide. A steeper drop will entice the 'buy the dip' gang. A slow bleed to death and most won't notice till the big boys get their bail.

by J.C. | 25th Jan 22, 4:55pm 1643082947

Bitcoin bears running rampant at the moment. This is the kind of sentiment I like. Usually a good indicator.

Anyone who buys bitcoin should expect massive volatility.

Boomers are not emotionally equipped for this.

by Brock Landers | 25th Jan 22, 5:47pm 1643086077

CWBW has a buy high, sell low mindset.

by VTHO | 25th Jan 22, 8:18pm 1643095102

Still a chance for upward valuation, BE QUICK!

by Te Kooti | 25th Jan 22, 5:48pm 1643086134

Yeah JC, Boomers only cut their teeth through the energy crisis of the 70's, deregulation in the 80's (floating exchange rates), Wall Strret crash in 87, the dot com bubble and GFC. I mean, what would they know about volatility. So lucky to have the Crypto influencers and NFT boi's to help teach them.

by J.C. | 25th Jan 22, 6:00pm 1643086840

You have a point. Amazon dropped 90%+ at one point in time. Regardless, I doubt too many of the boomer cohort were in on that opportunity. Bezos never sold.

I very much doubt the boomers have been through the highs and lows that BTC has given in the past 2 years. I think it would be hard to find any asset that has. From the anti-sentiment of the bowling club members to Hilary Clinton to Warren Buffet, if you're a BTC owner, you've been pretty much on the outer. One of the untouchables.

by Te Kooti | 25th Jan 22, 6:42pm 1643089327

It's all good, when you have parents and kids the generations blur. We will all see some sh1+.

by VTHO | 25th Jan 22, 8:24pm 1643095489

I got bids set at $1.

by HW2 | 25th Jan 22, 6:18pm 1643087894

Because there was one covid case on an aid flight from Oz, the Tongans told them to turn back and not land. Do they need help and aid or what?! I better not write what I really think or some might get antsy..

by frazz | 25th Jan 22, 9:27pm 1643099246

Tsunami, cyclones, ash, meth..you really think they need covid as well? Enjoy your 1st world privilege HW, better yet how about a donation to help rather than smart arse comments on a website?

by Audaxes | 25th Jan 22, 6:58pm 1643090336

The recovery was even more pronounced on the NASDAQ, enough to draw out the cynics in full voice.

Who was the substantial put seller picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, other than the taxpayer?

Thank This Mystery Put Seller For Today's Historic Market Reversal

by Mark L | 25th Jan 22, 9:14pm 1643098467

Definitely something strange there.

by Nifty1 | 25th Jan 22, 7:09pm 1643090959

Never take your masks off people, it is not safe out there!

by MortgageBelt | 25th Jan 22, 7:28pm 1643092095

Are masks themselves totally safe?

Some have warnings on them, & some need specialist training for safe wearing.

by RickStrauss | 26th Jan 22, 3:36pm 1643164571

Don't grab the welders' masks. That's not the right one.

by Golfer | 25th Jan 22, 7:38pm 1643092718

More govt smoke and mirrors -

For months they have been dying to announce they are ‘getting tough on masks’ but sadly decline to ‘get tough’ on Emergency Department understaffing and under resourcing (it’s culminated in an ugly Specialist Doctor v Govt pay dispute which looks like it will results in Australia getting better staff) - routine 10 hours waits and getting sicker as you wait coming to your local hospital soon thanks to Omicron & Govt disaster combo. When will Jacinda and Treasury agree to a pay agreement (they are calling the shots not the MOH or DHBs)?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-declare-health-…

by Audaxes | 25th Jan 22, 7:45pm 1643093126

There were a combination of factors that made recommending N95s difficult, including supply and cost, he said. Link

by singautim | 26th Jan 22, 6:22am 1643131347

[EDIT - I am WRONG!!. 'Active cases' is an ever moving subset of the population. Omicron may or may not be dangerous but that cannot be deduced from daily figures! Statistics is difficult. Apologies for misleading readers.]

Covid was a killer. Those Italian doctors and nurses were real and the increased number of deaths very persuasive. So were the deaths in NZ retirement homes. However by simple math between 30 to 40 die of some cause daily per million people. The number depends on the country's average life expectancy. Every country collects data for how many citizens are currently infected (active cases); presumably varying from country to country depending on how long after a negative test is considered 'recovered'. A Covid death is defined as any death of an active case of Covid (i.e 'with Covid' not 'from Covid').

Today Australia has just over 1m active cases and it recorded 40 deaths; therefore Covid is not killing Australians. The UK has over 3m active cases but under 80 daily deaths for the last two days - implying having Covid in the UK is helping to save lives (guessing a diagnosis of Covid means less risky behaviour with better sleep and nutrition). Note the number of UK cases labelled 'serious/critical' has been declining while Omicron has raged.

There must be sad exceptions but it seems as if Omicron really is not dangerous for inhabitants of well vaccinated countries with good health care.

by JimboJones | 25th Jan 22, 8:20pm 1643095228

I liked your maths for a second, then I realised your flaw: a single person can be an active case for say 14 days, yet they can only die once. You need to use daily cases if you are looking at daily deaths.

by Nzdano | 25th Jan 22, 9:04pm 1643097843

Um no, likewise a single person can be alive for 30000 days, and they only die once. The daily death rate per million is the same.

by JimboJones | 25th Jan 22, 9:38pm 1643099921

If Covid was only considered active for 1 day instead of 14 then you would have 1/14th of the number of active cases on any given day and 14x the death rate according to the above calculations. The death rate is completely influenced by the number of days people are considered active which makes no sense.

by Nzdano | 25th Jan 22, 10:38pm 1643103495

The metric we are looking at is: proportion of a given population that dies on a given day.

In the general population that is about 30 per million.

If you take the people who currently have Covid and split them off into their own subset of population you can do the same calculation.

Admittedly this could be understated if people are counted as active cases for longer than they actually have Covid.

by Nzdano | 26th Jan 22, 7:51am 1643136717

An interesting thought, being alive for 3 weeks has an average "case fatality rate" of about 0.07%

by JimboJones | 25th Jan 22, 9:55pm 1643100927

Or to put it another way, if Joe Bloggs got Covid and died on day 14, for the 13 days before that you incorrectly classified him as an active case that didn’t die of Covid when in fact he did die of Covid. If you want to use active cases as your numerator, you need to use the total number of those cases that died as your denominator, not a daily number. Or alternatively you can use daily cases over daily deaths assuming the case rate is fairly consistent.

It’s so easy to make statistics sound convincing when they are rubbish.

by Hardly | 25th Jan 22, 10:07pm 1643101651

X people catch COVID-19 per day

Y people die of COVID-19 per day

Both are per day. Therefore, if you assume X and Y are constant, the formula is just Y/X.

For example, yesterday 44,441 people were found to have COVID-19 in Australia and 71 died. Therefore, 1.5/1000.

Seems quite high to me. Especially when you consider that is significantly modified by vaccination (would be 10x plus without vaccination).

Now those numbers aren’t constant and there will be undetected cases but you get the idea.

by singautim | 26th Jan 22, 6:24am 1643131448

There is a slow reduction in the 'serious/critical' numbers in the same developed countries experiencing an Omicron wave.

by pete johns | 25th Jan 22, 8:33pm 1643095995

Singa , yes delta was the deadly one , Omicron which wipes out delta , far less severe .

Will Jacinda take note of overseas facts , she needs a broader view , not just her experts.

Here in QLD the peak has been reached , numbers dropping very quickly , hardly any

restrictions , life is pretty much normal.......50 in icu......129 deaths . yes there will be another

1-200 deaths......heres a fact , over 50% were residents in rest homes....how do you keep them safe..

by Pa1nter | 25th Jan 22, 8:42pm 1643096542

It sounds like we have been basing our decisions on overseas experience; omicron is potentially the endemic endgame, it's going to go through the community, it's better to not let it run too crazy given the likelihood for interruption.

by MortgageBelt | 25th Jan 22, 8:47pm 1643096848

But NZ does need to let it run otherwise we will never be able to open the border to incoming kiwis. And NZ can’t afford to keep crippling our entire operation.

by Pa1nter | 25th Jan 22, 9:09pm 1643098181

Sounds like that's what'll happen.

What do you want, the government sanctioning us to spit in each other's mouths the moment we feel ill?

by Hardly | 25th Jan 22, 9:53pm 1643100788

There is no scenario where it doesn’t run. If that’s what you want you will get it.

As for the border, I disagree with the suggestion a closed border is ‘crippling our whole operation.’ Economic growth is high, employment is higher, wage rates are going up. Our economy is rebalancing to work with the people we have. New Zealanders are investing their money at home and improving their homes rather than jet setting around the world boosting other peoples economies.

On balance its pretty clear that a closed border has been pretty good. It’s given us time to get on top of the housing supply crisis.

by MortgageBelt | 25th Jan 22, 10:09pm 1643101780

Propped up by govt subsidies and internal monetary policy.

by pete johns | 25th Jan 22, 8:56pm 1643097412

Pa1nter , we finally agree on something , QLD from a dozen cases a day to 25k a day , reported cases , so maybe five times that....only took 5 weeks . Not sure if any thing will slow down Omi , cept lockdowns...dont do it Jacinda , only numbers you need to look at are people in Hospital & icu . Going on QLD numbers l think it could be ok ....not enuff staff may be biggest prob

by HW2 | 25th Jan 22, 9:48pm 1643100495

A mild to severe flu is what this is. As defined by Tony Blakely Otago Uni. It is an absolute joke

by Hardly | 25th Jan 22, 9:54pm 1643100898

Didn’t Ashley say today Tony advocated his 60 year old parents staying inside their house?

by MortgageBelt | 25th Jan 22, 10:13pm 1643102022

Ashley also said previously you can’t catch COVID at the supermarket- so that’s another safe place!

by Pa1nter | 25th Jan 22, 10:15pm 1643102126

A severe flu is actually not great, and most people confuse getting a cold with getting the flu.

So like a super contagious flu like virus, without much in the way of natural immunity.

by Hardly | 25th Jan 22, 10:21pm 1643102471

Someone pointed out Omicron killed in a week what the flu kills in a whole season in the US. And that was after COVID-19 already killed 800,000+. Like you say, it’s a stupid argument because if we had a severe flu that spread like Omicron we’d probably need a public health response for that too.

by singautim | 25th Jan 22, 10:25pm 1643102731

Have they separate figures for US deaths for unvaccinated/vaccinated and Covid-19 Delta/Omicron? Omicron seems fairly safe if you are vaccinated. More evidence required?

by Hardly | 25th Jan 22, 10:40pm 1643103627

Studies address this.

From what I’ve read a young healthy vaccinated person has very little to fear from Omicron but there is always random bad luck. Some people just seem to get hit hard and there is no point taking unnecessary risks while you want for the booster at least.

if you are older and unwell, be a lot more careful.

Keep in mind it’s no picnic getting it even if you aren’t hospitalised. The flu is brutal and we only get it rarely so we forget.

by Hardly | 25th Jan 22, 10:44pm 1643103873

These graphs give you an idea of the difference the vaccine makes.

https://twitter.com/joshdmiller/status/1484778453261946882?s=21

by singautim | 26th Jan 22, 6:28am 1643131705

Thanks for the info. I recently heard a figure of 16 to 1 for deaths in the UK/

by HouseMouse | 25th Jan 22, 10:53pm 1643104386

Yes, bad colds are often confused with the flu.

I have had the proper flu twice in my adult life, one of the times in particular was incredibly miserable, I had a fever for days on end, bad muscle pains not to.mention respiratory misery, and generally felt like death warmed up.

by singautim | 25th Jan 22, 10:22pm 1643102550

That is what I suspect - my mind changed today - see previous comments for my reason. However as an elderly person with a minor heart condition with a wife still recovering from serious cancer treatment a few years ago I feel decidedly nervous.

If Tony Blakely, you and I are right then we should be welcoming Omicron into the community (I think when I was young parents encouraged young boys to catch Mumps before puberty) because it will provide a better protection against all strains of Covid than any vaccine.

On the other hand this highly infectious but hopely mild version of Covid mutated from a slower more lethal version; it could abruptly mutate again into a fast, lethal killer. Read history and Covid has been trivial even at its worst; epidemics in the past could kill over 90% of a population. Even NZ history has its stories of visitors arriving at an uninhabited Māori village that had been thriving the year before.

by Hardly | 25th Jan 22, 10:37pm 1643103436

They are revising up the estimates of native Americans in North America because the European never saw them, they all died before they made far enough into the continent to observe them.

In terms of central and South America I remember a figure of 99% dying within 100 years. But they got hit by a whole raft of disease including smallpox and influenza.

In terms of Maori, they got hit hard but were a lot better off because they had much more recent exposure to the Eurasian disease pool.

by singautim | 26th Jan 22, 6:34am 1643132059

When 90% of a community dies rapidly so does its cultural knowledge. A homogeneous farming community will regrow but a more complex society may lose the only people with a specific skill - e.g. boat building, shoe making.