Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
WBS has raised almost all their term deposit rates.
BUYERS HAVE MOVED ON, SELLERS NOT SO
At Auckland realtor Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms they are busier to start the new year, but buyers are noticeably cautious and the sales rate dropped to 27% last week. Reserves are still being set on 2021 expectations but buyers have moved back from there.
RECOVERY INDICATIONS
ANZ's truckometer for January is still being buffeted by lockdown volatility. But the heavy traffic index suggests a solid increase in Q4-2021 GDP following the lockdown-induced -3.7% fall in GDP in the June quarter.
BIG PROFITS
Main Aussie bank ASB has reported a half-year profit jump by +23% helped by lending and income growth, plus loan provision write-backs. Their net interest margin rose. It will pay is owner, CBA, a $650 mln dividend for 2021. They paid none in the equivalent period last year.
INSIDE TRADING CAUGHT
Regulator FMA has filed proceedings against two individuals for alleged insider trading in relation to the sale of shares in Pushpay Holdings (PPH, #28). These charges (both civil and criminal) relate to trading with unannounced knowledge that the director and co-founder had resigned and sold down his shareholding. They do not involve either the company or the director/co-founder neither of who breached any laws. See more here.
MORE WESTPAC BOND DETAILS
As initially signaled yesterday, Westpac has now confirmed they are launching a $100 mln 5 year bond offer "with unlimited over-subscriptions at the discretion of Westpac NZ". The indicative margin is 0.75 – 0.80% over the five year swap rate, which today is 2.84%. The actual rate will be set on Friday (which is before the release of the RBNZ inflation expectations results, which may or may not be market moving). If there are few changes between now an then, these bonds could be set at 3.60% pa yield. For reference, a term deposit offer from Westpac for a five year deposit is currently 3.20%.
RESERVOIRS REPLENISHED
Recent heavy rain has dramatically improved inflows to the hydro lake batteries, and sharply raised their storage levels. Auckland's water reservoirs are also replenished and now at their 'normal' levels for this time of year.
SHOE NOW ON OTHER FOOT
Suggestion from Rio that the Bluff aluminium smelter may not be closed at the end of the current electricity supply contract are because of the rise and rise of the market price for aluminium. It is now at a record high since and has doubled in price since mid-2020. It is likely to go much higher because China (and others) are shutting capacity to meet environmental standards. The key going forward isn't the smelting, it is the electricity supply, and 'green' electricity is going to be worth heaps. Oh, to be the Meridian (MEL, #6) negotiator at the next Rio meeting.
MOOD DARKENS SOMEWHAT
In Australia, the apparent 'improvement' in their pandemic numbers was expected to improve the mood in the latest Westpac MI consumer sentiment survey. But it didn't. Opening up isn't a mood-changer, it seems. Australian consumers have moved on to worry about inflation and higher interest rates.
LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In NSW, there has been a rise to 10,312 new community cases reported yesterday, now with 71,001 active locally-acquired cases, and another 20 daily deaths. There are now 1,905 in hospital there, off their high. In Victoria they reported 9,908 more new infections yesterday. There are now 57,022 active cases in that state - and there were 21 more deaths there. Queensland is reporting 6,902 new cases and 24 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 1296 yesterday and xx deaths. The ACT has 475 new cases and one death, and Tasmania 601 new cases and two deaths. Overall in Australia, about 29,500 new cases have been reported so far although not all counts are in yet. In New Zealand, there were 46 cases stopped at the border, plus 204 new cases reported in the community. But testing rates are falling sharply, less than 7,000 in Auckland in the past 24 hours.
GOLD RISING
In early Asian trading, gold is now at US$1826/oz, and up +US$4 from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES MIXED
After a slow start, the S&P500 ended its Tuesday session up +0.8%. Tokyo has opened up +0.6% in late morning trade. Hong Kong has opened up +1.8% and Shanghai is has opened flat. The ASX200 is up +0.1% in mid afternoon trade, and the NZX50 is down -0.1% in late trade today.
SWAPS HOLD
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to be little-changed today, awaiting Friday's RBNZ inflation expectations survey. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.18% and its highest since before the start of the pandemic. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is up +1 bp from yesterday to 2.09%. The China Govt 10yr is also up +1 bp, now at 2.74%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.74% (up +6 bps from this time yesterday) and now matching the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.74% (up another +7 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.94% and up only +1 bps from this time yesterday.
NZ DOLLAR LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged today at 66.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are slightly lower at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are firmish at 58.2 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is holding at just over 70.8.
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BITCOIN UP
Bitcoin has risen to US$44,169, up +0.5% from where we were at this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.2%.
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104 Comments
Metals in general but Al, Sn, Sb, Cu, Ni, Co, Li in particular, are having a price tear. Great for the miners, not so hot for the ultimate consumers. Like EV manufacturers, which just coincidentally need Mo' of....all of the above.
Indeed some old cynics with calculators have averred that there aren't enough recoverable reserves of any of the above to electrify more than a fraction of the world's fleet...
Past time that Rio was being looked at , holding our electricity market to ransome really, all consumers are paying more because of this subsidized power to the smelter . Doesn't rio also get carbon credits from the government to insulate its profit . Australia implemented a super profits tax on its banks some years ago , time nz looked at the same Rio would be a great place to start then maybe the banks . All of these companies are making huge profits through the taxpayer effectively subsidizing them.
It doesn't : "go to the NI grid".
It is primarily a charge on generators who locate miles away from the loads. Plus big load customers.
I'm not sure where the proposed changes are at now. They were proposing to charge northern supply authorities way more. This may be politically unacceptable now that the costs to retail consumers are going up?
And will skyrocket if Onslow is ever given the green light.
Onslow taken a back seat for the time being. euphemistically called the battery project. In case the readers here don't know who is on the technical panel. I'll mention what I consider to be the two odd balls. Info about 1-2 years old
Amanda Larsson, Lead Climate and Energy Campaigner, Greenpeace (2017 – present), Various roles, World Wildlife Fund (WWF), United Kingdom (2010 – 2014)
Isla Day, Member, Wellington City Council Environmental Reference Group (2019 – present), Founding member, School Strike 4 Climate New Zealand (2019)
Interesting term of reference. Specifies the amount of energy the system must provide, at least 5000GWh. The Electricity Authority should have enough horsepower, with a few outside consultants, to come up with a time and power. Too political I suspect.
The "battery storage" is the product of the power (kW, MW...) and time h. To show extreme examples. For 5000GWh "battery storage", 1000kW (1MW) will last 5million h (571 years) whereas a 1000GW (1000million kW) will last about 5h.
Stephens said the biggest factor was the transmission costs the smelter had to cover. with NZAS currently paying about nine per cent of all Transpower's transmission charges to consumers. [for Invers-Bluff 40km line]
...Since 2004, $1.3 billion has been spent on the upper North Island grid, yet only 39 per cent of the investment has been paid for by the upper North Island.
Since that time, transmission prices have increased by 330 per cent in the South Island, 225 per cent in the lower North Island, and 40 per cent in the upper North Island.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/news/93150828/transmission-cost…
Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa - looking like a 3rd rate modelling outfit more and more everyday, just a shame the government are listening to them. Blame the testing rates, well just maybe people aer'nt feeling sick enough to get tested and the two-three jabs have done what is required. So lets get on with it.
Totally predictable, avoid quarantine by simply not taking a test. Also either the high vax rate is slowing it down or its spreading like wildfire and its not showing up due to low testing and people are just not getting that sick so are ignoring it and getting on with it.
I don't think the overseas modelling is any better. These are just models which come with stated limitations and inputs. It's when the media and govt cherry picks and presents the results separated from how it was calculated that it becomes a confusing inaccurate mess.
Like this one then...
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201882823…
New Zealand could be facing 50,000 daily Omicron infections by Waitangi weekend, according to modelling by a highly respected, overseas health research organisation, peaking at about 80,000 each day just a few weeks later.
The projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, updated last Thursday, predict an outbreak here lasting about three months, and a death toll totalling more than 400 by May
People then ultimately read the first sentence, see the modelled 50k infections don't manifest themselves by Waitangi weekend, and then proceed to lambaste the government around the watercooler on the assumption the Government had spent millions of dollars conducting this inaccurate model.
Modellers are paid to produce models which come to conclusions that the government likes. Public health policy is then implemented based on these models, and when their predictions invariably fail to come true, we try and find some "game changer" which happened in the interim to use as an excuse for getting it wrong.
People will recall Shaun Hendy's dire warnings of 7000 deaths per year at an 80% vaccination rate, which was the catalyst for this government's 90% target (which eventually turned into a "milestone" as soon as it was no longer politically palatable to have targets anymore).
Worth noting that Hendy's recommendation for avoiding this doomsday scenario was getting 90% of total population vaccinated, whereas the government's target was 90% of eligible population; not too far off the 80% of total population which, according to Hendy, would have resulted in the 7000 deaths per year.
No wonder he's faded into obscurity. Better to call on people like Michael Baker who limit themselves to emotive platitudes, and get the same results without the need for pesky science.
I guess that models are science. To a point. If calibrated properly with past events and take into account all the differences of the new event.
But to do this well requires a very very skilled and experienced person using an appropriate software model.. Who knows if NZ has such a thing.
Bold prediction time:
Cases will sit around 200-300 reported and never exceed this; red light system does just enough to stop super-duper mega spreading, anyone who's vulnerable has already had the chance to get boosted, as well as people clearly not getting tested for what is a minor cold for most. Basically, we are just enough on top of Omicron that it won't run away on us.
However, the modelling-driven threat of thousands of daily cases will lurk around the corner and in the public consciousness, meaning restrictions have to continue (because, if we are seeing 200-300 cases and no doubling, the restrictions clearly work).
In effect, we wind up in Covid purgatory! Never enough cases to truly explode and force us to get on with life, never so few cases that we can say it has been beaten.
Red light, vax passport, and no events forever and ever amen (or at least very much the foreseeable future).
Having said all that, we will now wind up with 1000 cases reported tomorrow. My covid predictions are as bad as my stock picks.
Don't disagree at all.
Problem is how do you ever roll this back?
Government can't fully well say "that whole Covid thing was a bit overblown, wasn't it?"
Media are incentivised to keep people panicking, especially as that generates all-important clicks (and clickbait seems to be the only way mainstream media outlets can generate revenue in the digital age)
In theory, you'd think we should wind up like places like the UK and Australia - effectively forced to confront the reality of Omicron ... i.e. it is bad for some, but the vast majority will be fine and life goes on. However, that would be predicated on a great many people being forced to confront their fear, and escaping out the other side. That ain't happening here, at least not based on the numbers we are getting.
Can we get over it if we don't go through it? I don't know.
Let's say we woke up tomorrow in a society with 100% booster uptake, all kids vaccinated etc ... I still think many would be at "panic stations".
If it hasn't properly kicked off by end if Feb then I think we will get our wave by mid March a few weeks after borders open. Lots if seeding events will definitely ramp it up. The boosters will make a huge difference. We are only 8k behind queensland for 3rd doses given. Before our wave and similar population. Working in health I'm hoping for a low peak. We creak under BAU. Like you I agree we need our wave and move on. There is a chance if it all works it will be a smallish wave. But I think it will be big enough to count.
Bold prediction 2:
If we stay in the 200-300 case band, the border opening won't proceed as planned.
Government won't be able to resist the pressure from the experts and media-fuelled Joe Public, who won't want to see cases rise (despite - as you allude to - the fact we really need it to happen to move past Covid).
Platitudes will be issued, and the new goal will be getting some crazy high booster uptake (via mandate) before we can reopen.
"What's a few months more of MIQ between friends".
Not that bold. Quite realistic I would say. The fear mongering is already underway. The PM in parliament in the vein, beware the Ides of Winter. Cold fingers are reaching for you, pull the blanket up. And if omicron is just loitering at the moment, and if this continues, then it might just be that omicron times it’s big entrance right in the fall, in which case if Mr Pfizer is outflanked, New Zealanders are going to get it right in the neck aren’t they. Ironic isn’t it, government might end up saying in a week or two, go forth and get it. Don’t panic Corporal Jones, not yet. Just kidding.
Meanwhile the ship that is very slow to steer that is the housing market overshoots as a delayed border opening results in developments either stalling, recently finished construction projects struggling to sell. FHB can take up the slack sure, but how long can landlords keep filling the rental properties when their tenants leave?
We can see overseas that there have been large surges in cases in years past but that doesn't stop successive waves. So everything really hinges on Omicron being the endgame, and any further mutations are increasingly benign.
So if you don't get it this time, don't worry there's plenty of opportunity.
Or - we have thousands of cases a day right now but finding that out is reliant on testing which the govt basically told people not to bother with via their mad hatter restrictions...
The only reason I can see worth getting tested for is if you're inbetween jab 2 and jab 3 and can therefore prove there is no point getting jab 3 as you already have the natural immunity required.
Delta provided two lessons. Firstly the underworld ain’t gonna get tested anymore than they contact trace. Hence hookers on the hike. Secondly patients were streaming into Middlemore, a clinician noted at the time, with covid but not aware of it because they were there for other treatment. Now just those two factors alone are at play again with the more transmissible omicron. And then think about why it happened with Delta. Because those individuals all had their reasons for not wanting to be tested and not wanting to lose either income or freedom of movement. All that is playing out now tenfold or more.
Main Aussie bank ASB has reported a half-year profit jump by +23% helped by lending and income growth, plus loan provision write-backs.
Just for a bit of background, parent company CBA stock price up approx 13% yoy, but only 10% over past 2 years.
Stock price up 5% today, possibly on the back of ASB profits.
Yep, hospo and to a lesser extent bricks and mortar retail will be getting decimated following summer. T. Alexander's latest survey looks grim in terms of people's intentions for eating out etc in the near future. His survey results mirror my own experience - we've had fun with a post-lockdown spending spree in retail and hospo, now it's time to pull back - save the pennies, and lower the risk of getting covid.
Related to this, anybody else noticing that the quality of food in hospo outlets is going downhill?
I guess as ingredient prices rise, restaurants are trying to cut costs.
I've had a few disappointing, overpriced meals recently from places I enjoyed not too long ago. If I want slop I can cook it up at home in the crockpot.
People are so over showing passports I could show a picture of Felix the cat just as long as it’s black and white your in. I would imagine tests are down as you risk being lockdown with everyone you know or talked to for a few weeks also who is going to police this once thousands of people have omicron. Jacinda and her crew will be only people taking note of rules.
Govt depts are sending out 47 page flow charts instructing organisations all their notification procedures once cases arise. There will no time to run their organisation as everyone will need multiple project managers to comply! No wonder many are no longer scanning & turning off their COVID app Bluetooth.
I recently wondered out loud, on this website, how unsuccessful one of the government's key housing policies, their shared equity scheme, might have been. I mentioned I would do an OIA request to confirm my theory.
Thankfully, I didn't have to do that and deal with a government ministry trying to stone wall my request.
You can read about it here, 58 families housed in 19 months, pathetic:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300513706/government-home-own…
I think at the end of the day you need industry experience to get any traction with housing, and appointing it to some generic minister will never get traction.
It's why construction is woeful now, they have inexperienced people with degrees doing project management.
Exactly.
And the ministries are full of people with a really weird mix of wokeness and neoliberalism, who don't have the foggiest idea about real world development and finance. Most of them are academically quite clever, but practically hopeless.
I tell you, it's just unbelievable how hopeless they are, I did some contracting work for MBIE about 3-4 years back. Basket case of an agency. I told them straight up several key things they were looking at would fail, I was ignored because it didn't fit their minister's philosophy and rhetoric.... and I was right.
I wish I could short government policy!!!
Roy Morgan poll January 2022
The January 2022 Roy Morgan is out.
Party Vote
- Labour 33.0% (-2.5% from December)
- National 35.0% (+3.5%)
- Greens 10.5% (+2.0%)
- ACT 13.5% (-5.0%)
- Maori 2.5% (+1.5%)
- NZ First 2.5% (+0.5%)
Seats
- Labour 42 (-23 from election)
- National 45 (+12)
- Greens 13 (+3)
- ACT 17 (+7)
- Maori 3 (+1)
Governments
- Labour/Green 55/120
- National/ACT 62/120
Wow.
I suspect many traditional Nats who voted Ardern last time are returning to the Nats fold.
Then, there will be a few centre-left people like myself totally pissed off with Labour who will be voting Nats effectively as a protest vote.
Phonies are eventually found out....
Yeah.
I'm tossing up between not voting and voting for Nats as a protest vote.
At least with the Nats you know what you are getting, what you mostly get with Labour is false promises and heaps of poor policy and unintended consequences that are counter to their core *supposed* values.
I don't know if I've told the story here, but prior to Ardern first being elected, a friend who has almost always voted Labour said to me he wouldn't be voting for them. He thought they were a bunch of total incompetents. I'd had enough of Key, and had kind of bought into the Ardern fairy dust (although never being fully convinced deep down), and argued the case with him.
How right he was!!!!
Be careful! labour are starting to deliver housing, it looks like house prices will fall (partly through investment tax changes), we are getting more clean vehicles through their “Ute tax”, the light rail line is going ahead. If you value those changes then national will cancel them all. If you don’t then you are probably a core national voter anyway.
Bullshit.
I'm centre-left more on social matters than environmental ones. Labour have failed massively on housing and inequality. I'm not going to reward them for failure, by giving them my vote.
I've come to the view that although not intended, National will probably do less harm to the poor than Labour do.
Fair enough, they have been pretty bad, but maybe they are starting to get things working. It’s hard to imagine National doing any better when they are ideologically against those things. They don’t even have Nick Smith and his clipboard any more!
realistically there isn’t much more labour can do about house prices IMO other than interfere with the independent reserve bank and make us a banana republic.
Why can't they build a lot more houses themselves?
Oh, that's right, they are f$$%en incompetent!!!!
Nats aren't any better on social and environmental things, for sure, but then we don't expect them to be, and they are probably no worse (and possibly better on the social side). It's the massive let down of the gulf in promises (or at least 'policy') versus delivery that's the killer for me...
And at least with the Nats, I might get a tax cut or something.
What was a key lesson from the mezzanine finance collapse / GFC debacle in NZ from 2006 to 2008 - we need to have contingency if the private development sector collapses. I don't think we've learnt that lesson at all. The same thing is going to happen - private firms will fold, and we'll lose a whole lot of skilled people to Aus and beyond.
I have quite a lot of time for David Shearer. He originated the Kiwibuild policy, and it's been trashed...
Originally, it was the government to invest in some large prefab plants and build at massive scale. Not really rocket science, if you have competent people and resource at hand. We've effectively done it in the past.
Phil Stoner Twyford morphed that into a hopeless underwriting scheme of the private sector.
The rest, as they say, is history.
With what builders? The ones that are already occupied and currently building?
Heard of the Trades Training Apprenticeship Fund? It's been around for a couple of years, and provides people access to government funded trades training with polytechnics. I'm currently working through my Diploma in Construction with QS.
That was addressed in my second paragraph around the TTAF. Training has been neglected for decades, however fees free targeted funding to trades was introduced a couple of years back. It's a start.
Agree on mass prefabrication. Rather than ship the logs to China, you could have purpose built milling and pre-fab facilities. Logs go in, pre-nail comes out.
Chloe is a good speaker. I don't think she gets how the real world works though. The Greens have embraced their social radicalism side and seem only interested in destroying the economy to save the planet. I think they secretly want billions of people to die so life fits their pre-industrialisation model with organic farming and famine etc
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