What happened Thursday

Business / news

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; waiting on interest rate signals, Auckland primed for house building surge; NAB/BNZ also post strong results, swaps on hold, NZD firm, & more

10th Feb 22, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.

THE APPROVALS ARE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER NEW HOME BUILDING SURGE
Depending on border policies, supply chain issues, and the impact of rising interest rates, new home completions in Auckland may top 2000 a month in 2023 which is unusually high. But they are starting 2022 easing from 2021's highs, but may surge again next year new data suggests.

BIG FOUR BECOMES BIGGER TWO PLUS NOT-SO-BIG TWO
After yesterday's stellar ASB/CBA profit announcement, today NAB/BNZ signaled a strong result too. These two will contrast with ANZ and Westpac where results are expected to be lackluster by comparison, certainly on the Australian side. The big Four is splitting into two camps.

BNZ DECEMBER QUARTER LENDING UP 2.2%
BNZ grew lending by 2.2% in the December quarter, parent National Australia Bank (NAB) says. This came as NAB reported unaudited cash earnings of A$1.8 billion for the quarter, the first of its financial year. NAB says this is a +12% increase on the average from the second-half of the bank's previous financial year.

SOLID INTEREST IN WESTPAC BOND
Westpac NZ has attracted at least NZ$575 million to a five-year bond issue that's offering an indicative margin of 78 basis points to 80 basis points over swap. Books close Friday. Westpac said it was seeking $100 million plus over-subscriptions.

A 15 YR BOND IS A BIT LONG FOR MANY INVESTORS
There was another $200 mln tendered by Treasury today in two bonds, one well supported, the other not so much. The May 2032 $100 mln attracted $281 mln in bids from 32 bidders. Eighteen of then won some at an average yield of 2.74%, up from 2.68% two weeks ago. But the April 2037 $100 mln bond offer only attracted bids of $116 mln from 21 bidders, and 19 of them won something at an average yield of 2.96%, up from 2.82% two weeks ago.

EXPECTATIONS IN THE SPOTLIGHT
Two pieces of data news tomorrow have the potential to move markets. First and early tomorrow, the US releases its January CPI data. And at 3pm tomorrow the RBNZ releases the results of its business inflation expectations survey. If the US core inflation rate varies much from the expected 5.9% expect a market repricing. If the RBNZ survey varies too much from 3.5%, expect a local reaction.

LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In NSW, there has been a rise to 10,130 new community cases reported yesterday, now with 69,603 active locally-acquired cases, and another 24 daily deaths. There are now 1,795 in hospital there, off their high. In Victoria they reported 9,391 more new infections yesterday. There are now 55,946 active cases in that state - and there were 16 more deaths there. Queensland is reporting 5,854 new cases and 8 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 1671 yesterday and 2 deaths. The ACT has 500 new cases and no deaths, and Tasmania 637 new cases and one death. Overall in Australia, about 28,200 new cases have been reported so far although not all counts are in yet. In New Zealand, there were 30 cases stopped at the border, plus 306 new cases reported in the community.

GOLD RISING
In early Asian trading, gold is now at US$1834/oz, and up +US$8 from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES FIRM
After a good start, the S&P500 ended its Wednesday session up +1.5% with the gains building through the session. Tokyo has opened up +0.2% in late morning trade. Hong Kong has also opened up +0.2% while Shanghai is has opened flat-to-lower. The ASX200 is also up +0.2% in mid afternoon trade, and the NZX50 is up +0.4% in late trade today.

SWAPS HOLD
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to be little-changed today, awaiting tomorrow's RBNZ inflation expectations survey. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 1.17%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is unchanged from yesterday to 2.09%. The China Govt 10yr is also unchanged at 2.74%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.73% (down -1 bp from this time yesterday) and now below the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.74% (unchanged). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.93%, little changed from yesterday at this time, but it has been volatile in between.

NZ DOLLAR FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is up almost +½c today at 66.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are firmer too at 93.2 AUc. Against the euro we are firmish at 58.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is up to just under 71.2.

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BITCOIN STABLE
Bitcoin is little-changed at US$44,221, barely up +0.1% from where we were at this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep ahead of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

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57 Comments

by FCM | 10th Feb 22, 4:09pm 1644462545

why are we so PC in this country. Can the police just get a water cannon and some tear gas and get the job done in Wellington. Waste of taxpayer dollars sitting their playing chicken. Is this why we are in Red light Jacinda, to protect this mob, well done, I'm sure all the businesses that have been destroyed by your protect one we must protect all policy will be very pleased.

by printer8 | 10th Feb 22, 4:54pm 1644465249

FCM

Nah - let them keep packed tightly together, unvaxed, and without masks as they currently are. We need this to weed out our dumbwits. Natural selection depends on it.

by Beanie | 10th Feb 22, 4:36pm 1644464208

No need for water cannon..there are 3 days of rain forecast. That ought to do it.

by DTRH | 10th Feb 22, 4:23pm 1644463392

This is part of being a democracy if you don’t like it move

by FCM | 10th Feb 22, 4:27pm 1644463664

you better tell Jacinda and Trev that, they called the cops.

by DTRH | 10th Feb 22, 4:34pm 1644464059

Maybe Jacinda and Trev can move with you.This government will have a torrid time come next election.

by FCM | 10th Feb 22, 6:13pm 1644470013

You a but touchy DTRH, maybe you should travelled to wellington. Don't worry about all those hard working businesses that been trying work through Covid, having to shut, the ones pay workers who have families. You can have your day in democracy, but you can go too far as well!. I ain't a labour fan, but when your actions start impacting innocent bystanders you gone too far. You shouldn't praise that

by DTRH | 10th Feb 22, 6:36pm 1644471412

The business in this area should be cashing in with all these protesters or customers the rest of country can only wish they had this amount of customers.

by KH | 10th Feb 22, 7:04pm 1644473074

Not happening. That lot are just squatting on the cheap.

Look at Picton, the idiots have taken over a public park. Not in the campground. Probably leave their crap for the council to clean up

by Beanie | 10th Feb 22, 8:31pm 1644478319

Haha..if we ever see a protest happening in a campground we will know KH organised it. Ever thought of being a politician?

by kiwikidsnz | 10th Feb 22, 7:18pm 1644473925

Non violent, civil disobedient & disruptive protest is only permitted/endorsed by the Left as legitimate when the Left do it.

by Pa1nter | 10th Feb 22, 7:34pm 1644474843

A democracy means you get to participate in free and open elections.

It doesn't mean you can act like a public nuisance because you're feeling sad.

by Fox E | 10th Feb 22, 4:49pm 1644464979

"And those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music" Nietzche

by Foxglove. | 10th Feb 22, 5:04pm 1644465863

Well understandable if they were playing Wuthering Heights, Kate Bush. You try dancing to that, and see what you look like.

by Fox E | 10th Feb 22, 7:14pm 1644473666

lol!

by HouseMouse | 10th Feb 22, 7:32pm 1644474731

Interpretive dancing!!!!

by Carlos67 | 10th Feb 22, 5:15pm 1644466514

Wow just wow. People are allowed to protest mate, have you seen the countries that don't allow protests and use live ammunition and basically have the military in charge ? I suggest you move there if you don't believe people should be free to protest. This is nothing to do with PC.

by KH | 10th Feb 22, 7:09pm 1644473372

There are ways to protest, and ways not to.

This one has attracted some of the deluded. eg the woman with the flag which said 'Love is the answer.' But also was screaming at the media they should be executed. Sad.

by paashaas | 10th Feb 22, 7:35pm 1644474927

Sure - they are idiots and should not be protesting the way they are - it does not make water cannon a justified answer.

by Carlos67 | 10th Feb 22, 9:29pm 1644481740

From the limited video I have seen there appears to be a disproportionately high number of Police present. Still better to crush the protest pretty quickly or else what's next ? People protesting at house prices that are to high ? Not a good look for the government, still a water cannon is probably justified for those just whining about house prices (sarc)

by Noncents | 10th Feb 22, 10:54pm 1644486896

"From the limited video I have seen there appears to be a disproportionately high number of Police present."

I think this is quite an important point.

Overlayed with the complete lack of Police presence as crime surges in Auckland CBD, Gangs actively taking over roads/intersections throughout the country, and let us not forget the great press conference that the Police just randomly put together re the complete lack of charges/investigations involving a certain person without any prompting from the PMs office.

It reeks of the Police protecting the PM rather than the people that vote for her.

by Pa1nter | 10th Feb 22, 11:05pm 1644487558

Or, we want to discourage the sort of shitty shambolic mess like what occured at the US capitol last year.

I think also early on the police were caught napping and had an under representation.

by Audaxes | 10th Feb 22, 6:27pm 1644470823

There was another $200 mln tendered by Treasury today in two bonds, one well supported, the other not so much. The May 2032 $100 mln attracted $281 mln in bids from 32 bidders.

The 2.0% 15/05/32 is about to become the new 10 year benchmark issue, replacing the 1.5% 15/05/31.

Another sovereign 10 year UST bond issue is on the cusp of being surpassed in yield by the 7 year benchmark, with the 5 year close behind.

by HouseMouse | 10th Feb 22, 4:22pm 1644463321

David, you have correctly placed 3 large caveats in front of your summary of the likely trajectory of residential construction over the next two years. This nuance was conspicuous by its absence in Greg's article.

However, I think you can do more than caveat these things- supply chain problems are baked in for at least 6 months, and interest rates are rising and almost no one thinks they will not continue to rise.

by Zack Brando | 10th Feb 22, 4:54pm 1644465285

Toleration Lost

Fault-lines at Parliament

John Locke, commonly known as the "Father of Liberalism” wrote in support of toleration.

When the majority of society find themselves at odds/enmity with a minority opinion, toleration should be applied.

For starters; the Minority Man might be correct, after all you only need one person to know the way, if listened to everybody escapes a cold night it the forest!

Perhaps the Minority Man isn't entirely right, but he has some good points and approaches.. in this case toleration improves the understanding and outcome for all.

Alternatively, the Minority Man could be totally wrong.. toleration allows for the sharpening of debate, an opportunity for ideas to be challenged and changed. Most of all it allows for the contest-of-ideas which is so vitally important for our democracy.

I remember as a kid doing the Tour of Parliament.. the checkered floors, the surprise at the smallness of the debating chamber, people hurrying along.. but what stuck with me most was the fault-line! While showing us the lead-shock-absorbors parliament sat on, our guide reminded our group that only meters away lay the 'Wellington Fault-line'.

I sit here today in Christchurch as my fellow citizens have brought their voices to the steps of parliament. I think they're asking for toleration.. the Babel shaped Beehive is of one accord - silence. No greeting party is sent, no diplomat or representative dispatched. No politician will go near or listen to these voters.

Our politicians, those lovers of comfort sit in their offices and chambers - they're less flexible than those lead shock absorbors. The citizens at their door have been “othered” and the doors will not be opened, no olive branch extended! So they debate, not toleration, no no - who's worse on housing, then Poto Williams thanks the police for keeping them safe form the voters locked outside.. many whom once were theirs.

by theoutlawtorn | 10th Feb 22, 5:05pm 1644465948

Very, very well put.

by MortgageBelt | 10th Feb 22, 5:30pm 1644467419

These protests are a global phenomenon and it would be interesting to really understand the motivations and reasoning behind the multiple sub-groups.

Even within mandated organisations there are a growing number of people uneasy with the forced divisions, mandate enforcement, potentially endless partially-effective boosters, and MVP checking. What else will we all put up with in future?

by Foxglove. | 10th Feb 22, 5:56pm 1644468985

On our last election night our PM waxed lyrical about the mandate, there’s that word again, entrusted to her government by the electorate. And in the same vein as the be kind and transparent mantra, gushed enthusiastically we will be governing for all New Zealanders. Highly ironical then isn’t it when you consider what the first mandate has given birth to in the enforcement of the second. But the protest is more than about that. We were told repeatedly that vaccination was the pivotal key. Those assurances must have acknowledged within their make up, that there was always going to be a percentage of unvaccinated. The way this government is continually shifting the ground from under our feet it is apparent that even if NZ was 125% vaccinated our freedom would still be being circumvented. Yes the protest is mandate inclusive but it concerns much more profoundly, the loss of liberty/freedom and the betrayal by this government to honour its own directions & undertakings while 95% of the population has been compliant to their bidding. Quite frankly, they suck!

by HouseMouse | 10th Feb 22, 5:57pm 1644469074

I don't agree with their views but I certainly have some sympathy for the spirit of their views.

Minority groups with extremist views often reflect something boiling away in the souls of the majority.

by Pa1nter | 10th Feb 22, 7:38pm 1644475122

The problem is this is a collage of aggrieved minorities:

- 3 waters

- vaccine mandates

- paying too much for a ute

- wearing masks

- 1080 poison

To people with an axe to grind in any of these realms, they're just going to be more and more annoyed that nothing is going their way.

To anyone thats had to deal with life as an adult, these are all trivial issues.

by MortgageBelt | 10th Feb 22, 7:52pm 1644475943

Yes, perhaps for every 10 protesters there’s another 1000 kiwis working in those buildings who may not protest but quietly disagree with enforced mandates etc in their workplace, and are only going along with policies for fear of their jobs and salaries.

To adapt Martin Niemoller:

First they came for the Antivaxers, and I did not speak out—

Because I was not an Antivaxer

Then they came for the Anti-mandaters, and I did not speak out—

Because I was not a Anti-Mandater.

Then they came for the Restauranteurs/SME owners, and I did not speak out—

Because I was not a Restaurant owner or small business owner

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

by Pa1nter | 10th Feb 22, 8:38pm 1644478704

Most people are adult enough to distinguish the pandemic from the government.

There gets to be a free and fair election next year. I doubt the NZ experience by then will be considerably worse than most other nations due to covid by then but I'm sure if our government is dooming us as so many say that'll be apparent enough for a change in regime.

by Noncents | 10th Feb 22, 9:08pm 1644480515

I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.

by Pa1nter | 10th Feb 22, 9:16pm 1644480992

Ughhh, some people also confuse free speech with "I get to say any old nonsense with total impunity".

by Noncents | 10th Feb 22, 10:01pm 1644483696

If someone has the right to free speech, that does not diminish your right to ignore.

However, our PM and other MPs have met many other protests/Hikois/petitions often with less people. They chose not only to avoid this, but to actively dismiss them as crackpots, (which they may well be)

But like it or not, they are voters and deserve representation, and with each MP in NZ technically representing ~40k people (~30k voters). You cannot tell me that this group of people (Who appear to have at least that level of support nationwide) do not deserve representation in some form?

by Pa1nter | 10th Feb 22, 10:14pm 1644484497

Perhaps it's telling that no MP from any party is willing to capitalise on these protests and support them.

The problem is compounded by the fact their only universal message is they're not happy, and they represent a range of seperate self interests. Most other movements have a primary aim that gets more focus.

by MortgageBelt | 10th Feb 22, 10:32pm 1644485532

Rodney Hide would meet them

https://breakingviewsnz.blogspot.com/2022/02/rodney-hide-i-support-prot…

by Pa1nter | 10th Feb 22, 10:39pm 1644485982

He can re-enter politics then, see how far he gets without the guarantee of the Epsom electorate.

by Noncents | 10th Feb 22, 10:39pm 1644485954

I don't disagree at all with what you have written, but re your first sentence, it appears one MP was instructed by their party not to meet with them, after initially saying they would. So not quite as straightforward as All MPs agreeing it is junk.

Re your second sentence, I agree it is conflating issues, but the inherent message is that people are not happy with the Govt Covid reponse (Mandates, MIQ, lockdowns)

Were we swap to swap these loons out for the kids that protested climate change, would the outcome be different? Sometimes you just need to listen to the message rather than the messenger.

by Pa1nter | 10th Feb 22, 11:03pm 1644487397

I guess it's hard because most other protests are for some sort of advancement, be it race relations, sexuality equality, the environment, etc.

This is people who feel aggrieved by a range of pandemic responses that require compliance to have the most efficacy. It's their individual rights vs the collective rights of a society.

There's not a heap of middle ground.

by Noncents | 10th Feb 22, 11:57pm 1644490657

Re the mandate, I don't think we needed them. Collectively vaccination was already well above 50% and tracking to the high 70s. Did it push some people to get it yes, but that pushing is the issue at the heart of the matter, it was blackmail/coercian by any other word. Jab or Job (i.e. livlihood).

The vaccine is safe but we still saw two fatalities. Imagine if we saw more (and they only received due to mandate).

Its effectiveness is also being undermined by the apparent 7-10 week effective life leading to multiple boosters. I know a lot of people that have passed the 3 month (and 4 month) marks that are not going to get shot 3. Yet Hipkins has already added the third to the mandate, with mid-march being the cutoff for the first cohort.

As many others have noted, the it is likely just the tip of the iceberg in terms of those who disagree with the mandate. So come mid march, will we see a much more focussed and larger protest.

by Foxglove. | 10th Feb 22, 9:28pm 1644481708

Yes that came to my mind too. It seems though the issue here is how they are saying it. It is not simple. A democratically elected government in 1981 sanctioned a Springbok rugby tour. The people rose. They wore motorbike crash helmets to protect themselves from police batons.It was ugly and shocking, even elderly ladies were dragged away. Yet the consensus is now that the violence that spilt out in those confrontations was justified. The thing is New Zealand has little history of this. Yes the waterfront strikes, and the Holland government suppression, but that and the above in 1981 are distant. The point is situations and circumstances that give rise to these scenes outside of parliament, for the second time now, are unusual in our nation. The government has a responsibility to ask themselves, rather than simply dismissing the participants as rabble, how was such division instilled to cause this uproar.

by Pa1nter | 10th Feb 22, 9:41pm 1644482496

There's been 2 years of a pandemic and all the collateral damage therein, hence a lot of aggrieved people with axes to grind. It's not rocket science, you aren't going to go through something like this and not have people getting upset.

by Solve_it | 10th Feb 22, 11:31pm 1644489111

The Springbok tour protests were motivated by concern for injustices to other people.

This antivax movement is only concerned by inconveniences to themselves.

To compare the two scenarios is ridiculous.

by Passerby | 11th Feb 22, 12:15am 1644491747

Anti vax or anti mandates? I don’t think they are telling you not to vaccinate yourself or your whanau. I think they want to choose what they put into their own bodies and that their jobs shouldn’t be taken away if they choose not to inject their bodies. It is as simple as exercising bodily autonomy.

Just think if this in reverse, you want to get the vaccine and you are forced not to get it and if you do, then you lose your job and won’t be able to support your family.

I am vaccinated on my own accord and I think the mandates are completely unnecessary. Live your life and let others live their lives.

by Solve_it | 11th Feb 22, 5:05am 1644509132

I literally got told by someone in the movement the other day that if I got the booster or vaccinated my 2 year old they would never speak to me again.

The mandates were created as a tool to get the necessary percentage of the population vaccinated. Without them we never would have got the coverage we now have, which is resulting in the lowest death rates in the world.

If people were smart and unselfish enough to just go and get vaccinated in the first place they wouldn't have been required, and I believe wouldn't have been implemented.

Means to an end. And very effective in that. A minor inconvenience in what is a major global pandemic. As mentioned, these people need to get out more, and preferably not to waste police time and resources.

by kiwikidsnz | 10th Feb 22, 6:44pm 1644471857

The response of ALL the politicians, media & police to this protest is a stark contrast to their actions at ihumatao.

Must be something about getting in their face...& of course ihumatao was only private property not a public space

by Noncents | 10th Feb 22, 9:13pm 1644480809

My concern is the PMs statement. Paraphrasing, "We don't need to meet with them as it is a small minority of people, and does not reflect the wider view"

Really, less than 30k people out of 5mil signed a petition to shut oil and gas, and significantly less than attending this protest handed it over, yet it was met at the gates by the PM and actioned within hours.

As other commenters have mentioned, protests in NZ often represent just a fraction of those that support particular views. In this particular one I think there are a lot of mixed views that are being presented as one whole. But speaking around my colleagues. Opinions are definitely changing on vaccine mandates and seemingly permanent mask wearing.

by waymad | 10th Feb 22, 9:27pm 1644481652

There is another, perfectly uncontrollable protest happening:

No scan (but perform the Mask Kabuki, hold up the phone to the QR code and press Wordle).
No test so no traceable public consequence.
No Case, so not counted.
No presence at an LOI so no contact trace possible.

Passive resistance......

by Foxglove. | 10th Feb 22, 9:49pm 1644482980

My god. There it is, my modus operandi. Not so clever after all. I am being shadowed and observed. Thought it was paranoia. But now I know that the old nape hairs are still on the alert. Best change the overcoat. Least I know I am not alone. There are similars, everywhere if you dare to glance! Must ask Jacinda. How did she stay on the run, defeat the trackers, for seven days, before they caught up. What a trick she must be then!

signed

Foxglove the fugitive.

by Noncents | 10th Feb 22, 10:23pm 1644485001

A mate joked, "you can only catch covid via the app."

Funny thing is,as you show No scan = no trace = no contact = no test = no covid. So for the bulk of people who don't even get symptoms, it essentially holds true.

by Brock Landers | 10th Feb 22, 10:36pm 1644485777

Make sure you turn off the bluetooth also.

by Whatwillhappen | 11th Feb 22, 10:00am 1644526800

Use the Rippl app instead.

by J.C. | 10th Feb 22, 5:10pm 1644466245

Blackrock thinking of moving into the crypto space. Quite a turnaround.

The world's largest asset manager, with over $10T in assets under management, planned to enter the decentralized space with "client support trading and then with their own credit facility," one of the people told CoinDesk. This implied that clients would be able to borrow from BLK by pledging digital assets as collateral.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3798096-blackrock-considers-cryptocurrenc…

by Pragmatist | 10th Feb 22, 6:03pm 1644469409

Ticket clippers in it for the fees.

by DD62 | 10th Feb 22, 10:31pm 1644485482

There is always a silver lining. Malllards folly ($600K slide) might be getting a good workout!

by KiwiinSpain | 11th Feb 22, 4:09am 1644505768

I have never heard so many moderate, educated or generally well meaning people express such vitriol and hate towards this Government and it's ministers.

At a trivial and simplistic level, this can only indicate that our great leaders are causing people undue pain and suffering. Maybe i'm wrong. We can blame social media et al.

Our family will be making a 600km trip across Spain at the next NZ election to express our democratic rights. I'm not sure if that is equally is as fanatic as camping out in the Wellington summer but man, any well behaved protester deserves some respect.

Ardern is doing the same to NZ that Trump has done to the USA! I've never seen us so divided and nasty.