A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; many rate increases, business confidence clobbered, mortgage debt rise slows, milk production down, swaps slip, NZD lower, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank and BNZ both raised their floating rate today, completing the response by the big mortgage lenders. Kiwibank also raised fixed rates as well. Late on Friday, the Cooperative Bank raised rates too. More here. The Police Credit Union rates their rates too.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank raised savings account rates and term deposit rates. The Cooperative Bank also raised term deposit rates, as did Rabobank who also raised savings account rates.

CONFIDENCE CLOBBERED, INFLATION SOARS
According to the ANZ Business Confidence Survey, confidence has nosed dived in the early part of 2022. In addition to surging Omicron infections, businesses are grappling with a range of headwinds including shortages of staff and materials, as well as rising costs. Those conditions are squeezing profitability. If anything is 'positive' in this survey it is that Own Activity views are less problematic.

MORTGAGE DEBT UP LESS
January mortgage debt rose +$1.7 bln in January from the prior month, and is up +$30.2 bln in a year. But that year-on-year rise is actually the smallest in ten months. Still it is a +10% rise. The month-on-month rises is the smallest for a January since 2019.

BUSINESS LOAN APPETITE IMPROVES
Meanwhile, the debt appetite of businesses is rising. It was up +6.1% year-on-year, a two year high, to $123.8 bln.

CAN'T KEEP IT UP
After rising +1.8 bln in December from November, these same household term deposits rose only $191 mln in January. Maybe the recent resurgence in term deposits will be a fleeting thing?

SBS BANK OUTLINES BOND ISSUE
SBS Bank is seeking to borrow up to $150 million through an offer of five-year, unsecured, senior, fixed-rate bonds to both retail and institutional investors.

WESTPAC LIFE SALE COMPLETE
Westpac has completed the $400 million sale of Westpac Life to Fidelity Life. The deal will see Westpac distribute Fidelity products to its retail customers for the next 15 years.

AFFIRMATIVE DIVERSITY IS IN
There has been the appointment of three new members of the Financial Markets Authority Board, along with the reappointment of a current board member. Tokens are now important. "A range of factors, including ethnicity and age, were considered, with [Kendell] Flutey’s strong connection to Māori and young New Zealanders, as well as geography and knowledge, with [Steven] Bardy and [Mark] Weenink both having international experience and a wealth of industry knowledge. With the newest board members, the gender mix of the FMA Board will be five men and four women."

PRODUCER POWER
Fonterra is noting that milk production is all the main global exporting regions is down in January. For NZ the decline is -6.1%, in Australia -1.2%, the EU -0.8, and the USA -1.6%. This is likely to solidify the floor when the Wednesday dairy auction gets underway. Further, the EU and the USA are exporting a lot less. (They also noted that China's monthly imports are falling.)

MARKET LOST
Fonterra has suspended further sales to Russia, a market that takes about 1% of their product. Presumably getting paid now is an issue.

OPERATOR DOWN
Last week, the capitalisation of the NZX50 fell -1.8% to now be down by -1.5% from this time a year ago. Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH, #1) fell -4.1% in the week. In fact only seven companies did not fall in this NZX50 set. The largest fall was by the market operator (NZX) itself, down -16.1% taking it down five places in the rank to #45. Other notable falls were by Pacific Edge (PEB, #35) down -9.6%, and Kathmandu (KMD, #31), down -6.5%. The overall capitalisation of the NZX50 is now $121 bln, or 35% of NZ GDP. A year ago it was 38% of GDP.

AUSSIE RETAIL HOLDS ON
An Australia, retail sales rose +1.8% in January from December and are +6.4% higher than a year ago. But these changes are "current prices", so inflation will account for much of the rise. Online and Department Store activity rose the most.

FINANCIAL STRESS EXTREME
The Russian ruble has just opened for trade this week. It was instantly down -30% on top of last week's -30% dump. It is now approaching 120 to the USD. It is hard to imagine Russia selling its hard assets to protect the value of its currency. Why would they give up real assets for their own wavering currency?

GOLD UP
In early Asian trading, gold is now at US$1909 and up +US$20 from where we opened this morning.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is up a minor +0.5% in later afternoon trade. The ASX200 is up by +0.7 in early afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.2%, Hong Kong is down -0.3% and Shanghai is flat. The S&P500 futures suggests Wall Street will open -2.4% from where it closed at the end of last week.

SWAPS SLIP TODAY
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to have fallen somewhat today across the board. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +2 bps at 1.26%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is down -5 bps from this morning to 2.19%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 2.80%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.77% (down -4 bps from this this morning) and the same as the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.77% (down -4 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.92%, a -5 bps fall from where opened this morning.

NZ DOLLAR LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is lower by -½c from where we opened this morning and back to the level this time Friday, now at 66.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are lower at 93.2 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 59.8 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is lower at 71.7.

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BITCOIN LOWER
Bitcoin has fallen back today, now at US$37,785 and down -3.3% from the US$39,092 it opened at this morning. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.8%.

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