Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB, ICBC, Nelson Building Society and Kookmin Bank all raised fixed rates. Heartland Bank also hiked its reverse mortgage interest rate by +25 bps to 6.45%.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Kookmin Bank and ICBC also raised most term deposit rates.
GRIM
Kiwi households aren't in a good mood. The latest survey of consumer confidence is just awful. The ANZ NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence survey dropped in February to its lowest level since this survey began in 2004. Interest rates, inflation and high consumer prices are all conspiring to dampen the economic outlook. Despite this, the news had no impact on the NZD.
MUCH GRIMMER
Unconfirmed reports out of Ukraine from their Foreign Ministry say that Russian forces are targeting a nuclear plant there, firing artillery at it, and preventing firefighting efforts. This is very serious as it is Europe's largest nuclear power facility. This news is moving markets.
A LITTLE LESS MISMATCH
By regulation, NZ banks are required to hold a sufficient stock of liquid assets to be able to fill the projected ‘mismatch’ between cash inflows and outflows over the next week and the next month. These mismatchs reduced slightly in January from December. But they are still relatively high compared with 2019 levels, and now at about 2020 levels (and above 2021 averages).
ALUMINIUM JUMPS AGAIN
The price of aluminium has leapt again, breaking new records daily.
P2P RATES RISE
Lending Crowd raised most of its lending and investor rates on their P2P platform today.
GOLD HIGHER
In early Asian trading, gold is now at US$1935/oz and up +US$4 from this time yesterday. A week ago it was at US$1918, so a net +US$17/oz rise since then, or just +1.2%.
EQUITIES ENDING WORRIED
Wall Street ended its Thursday session down -0.5% with the prospect of a positive US non-farm payrolls report overshadowed by ugly news out of Ukraine. That news has Tokyo down -2.8%. Hong Kong is down -2.5% at their open. Shanghai is down -0.6% at its open today. The ASX200 is down -1.3% in early afternoon trade there but heading for a +0.8% weekly gain. The NZX50 is down -1.0% near its close, but heading for a +1.4% weekly gain.
SWAPS VOLATILE
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to be up but by the end of trading maybe not by much. But before the Ukraine news they were up sharply, now that is being pegged back quickly. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.34%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is up +1 bp from this time yesterday to 2.16%. (A week ago it was at 2.24%.) The China Govt 10yr is up +1 bp at 2.86% and up +4 bps in a week. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.76% (down -2 bps) and now still well below the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.81% (up +1 bp). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.81%, a -4 bps fall from this time yesterday.
NZ DOLLAR FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed than this time yesterday, now at 67.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -¼c at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +½c at 61.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is firmer at 72.7. A week ago it was at 71.8, so a +90 bps.
Appreciate this coverage? Support us and go ad-free. Find out how.
(We are not supported by the Public Interest Journalism Fund, nor Google, nor Facebook's similar programs.)
BITCOIN LOWER
Bitcoin is down -5.9% today, now at US$41,259. From a week ago however it is up +7.7%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.6%.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep ahead of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
65 Comments
WW2 the Russians, and as employed against Napoleon, used the scorched earth tactics extensively and successfully. But someone should tell Putin it is the defensive team that does that, not the invaders. Whatever victory is achieve it will be pyrrhic at best, and at worst, a long running ulcer in the side of guerrilla & partisan resistance for years to come.
I'm no expert on Ukraine power grid, but the Russian invasion plan could well be to scare the Ukranians into shutting down all nuclear power plants and removing power from the majority of the country.
If this is true, it looks as though as it is working as the Ukranians are shutting down the power plant. Might be part of a collective plan to cause widespread chaos across the country and make life unbearable for Ukranian citizens until they cease resistance.
Might not be so Darwin as is collectively thought assuming the accuracy of the attack is within controlled limits (of which of course I cannot comment on!)
Yep although in the fog of war it is always difficult to tell what is really happening (despite everyone in the media and on twitter saying Putin is trying to blow it up...)
If I was in Putins shoes, removing power to the country would be part of the invasion plan until I have control. Not madness, just part of a invasion strategy (although invading is possibly mad in the first place!)
That assumes Putin can gain control. I still haven't seen a credible end game for Putin - takes over all of Ukraine ( which I am still convinced he will do) - then what, Put in an occupation force (that costs money and most likely a steady trickle of body bags for Russian mothers to bury), Put in a puppet government - how long will that last.
Some other outcome.... (if someone has a sensible outcome please post it here)
A Russian media outlet posted an article "Ukraine has returned to Russia" which was quickly deleted - apparently it has been cached however.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60562240
which does really sum up Russia's view of Ukraine. The article uses the term "Little Russians" which is a derogatory term for Ukrainians.
Putin just wants to punish Ukraine and I think he is prepared to impoverish Russia to do so.
I was just reading up on the deep history of Ukraine. It has been occupied consistently since the bronze age with descendants still existing in the modern Ukrainian population, although there is also archeological evidence of occupation going back 40,000 years and enduring the last ice age.
I met in Chicago in the 1980s a Ruthenian. A long standing ethnicity, their own language, sited slightly east of Kiev almost abutting Poland. They disappeared, were displaced, in the mop up post WW1 and of course the Bolsheviks, the civil war. Ironically those that made it to the USA have been able to re-establish their community & culture quite freely, are at liberty to carry on with what is still very close to the Russian Orthodox doctrine. And while at it, have a look at the Bolgar Volgas. This was as far as the Genghis Khan 13th century empire stretched eastwards, so it subsequently was part of the Yuan dynasty sort of. Wonder if the CCP is looking that far afield then?
The Huns are another fascinating Eastern influence in the history of the West.
Norse influence between East and West is probably the shadiest. The Vikings raided and kidnapped Slavs so prolifically along the rivers down to the Islamic Empire that our modern word for slave is derived from “Slav”. The Muslim rich favoured Slavic thralls. There was no Western supremacy in the medieval era.
Ukrainian has some linguistic links to Iranian. Although genetically, they have much shared ancestry with the Polish.
It's more likely a ploy to have the power plant shut down by the Ukrainians, normal war strategies of taking out telecommunications and electricity (internet) to isolate the foe. Can't imagine there being any plan to damage the reactor while piling troops into Ukraine, that would be dumb, which Putin is not
Well that is the optics anyway, Russia has a lot of oil and gas, right as europe is in an energy crisis. The US is still importing Russian oil, can they afford not to? Remember US oil reserves would only cover 1 dat of US use if it came to that. Russia is in a stronger position than people give them credit for
He or she is sitting quiet. And so he or she should. China is on the brink of strengthening, increasing its power immensely. Russia is doing that all on its own. Russia will emerge from whatever it might achieve in Ukraine far far weaker than when Russia entered. And it won’t start getting any better at that point, only worse. China is positioned both geographically and economically to advantage themselves of that downfall, and do so hugely and with some irony note that Russia will need China more than ever before. It’s going to be win, win and win again for China without them having had to lift a little pink finger.
Forget the Aluminium price, just take a look at the wheat price. Russia and Ukraine produce 30% of the worlds supply between them and the maize harvests elsewhere in the world are looking poor too. There are going to be a lot of hungry people if this isn't over soon. Time to stock up on flour and rice.
It would make sense to seize control of the power plant. Doing so probably involves a degree of military violence during a war. I doubt they are just shelling the power plant randomly. Explosions and fires on the periphery are likely.
I know it sounds like I am defending the Russians, but not really, it's just we can't blindly believe unconfirmed reports from the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry. They could be a little biased.
All Russia will do, unless someone makes a Mistake, is pressure the Power plant to close down, thus depriving 30% of Ukraine with power in the middle of an icy cold snap. The losers, as always in a siege mentality war, will be the ordinary civilians who will die in their tens of thousands.
Wall Street ended its Thursday session down -0.5% with the prospect of a positive US non-farm payrolls report
It's notable that Omicron is now being touted as a "mild disease" by the authorities. Please don't go to hospital, just suck on a lozenge and you'll be fine is the current advice.
Some of us were being severely berated for such ideas not so long ago. Now it's official advice.
Please don't censor me. It's not a conspiracy, it's in the news!
McIntosh (Primary care co-clinical lead for whānau HQ) said she recognised some people might feel anxious about the high case numbers, but reminded people that Omicron was a mild illness.
A mild disease now is it, how convenient. If so why then after the not so mild Delta had been “seen off” did virtual lock down measures have to be re-instated beyond what was in place up until 21/12/21 & the opening up put in place abruptly cancelled. Have to say the endless spin, massaging of facts & figures by this government & its bureaucracy has become simply unbearable. Undoubtedly the Prime Minister is in the thick of this. How many years honing such skills in the department of UK Prime Minister Blair. Never make any statement, or answer any question, unless the words used, have at the very least, two different meanings. Still being able to talk out of the side of your mouth with a forked tongue does take, I imagine, quite some practice and application.
I think you are being disingenuous. It is a mild disease for most (especially those vaccinated), but with a large number catching it, even if only a small percentage get hospitalised it could cause havoc. That is why the PM keeps talking about removing the rules after we hit a peak in cases which probably isn’t far away. But I’m sure you knew all this already.
Zelensky needs to capitulate before the place is bombed out. Already going down the Aleppo road. Zelensky is also belittling Putin. Not a good idea. Putin has said there'll be more demands from the initial ones. Putin not likely to be on the scenes for more than 10 years or so. The Russian people will be suffering heavily and someone more sensible is likely to take over.
There was an article the other day that pointed out that the average age of the "war cabinet" was 68. It makes me wonder if the rumours about Putin having Parkinson's is true (or some other terminal illness) - he wants to leave a "legacy". and this is the last chance to do so.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.