A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; mortgage and TD rates move up, other lending rates up too, ComCom says yes to merger, China surprises, commodities do sharp turn lower, swaps jump again, NZD down, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has now come out and matched the ANZ increase. More here.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has also raised term deposit rates. Heretaunga Building Society has raised some TD rates.

BUSINESS LENDING RATES
ANZ has raised its key business lending rates by +25 bps. Their Business Bank Indicator Rate is now 9.10%, their Business Overdraft base rate is now 11.10%, and their Agri Current Account is now 7.30%. Comparatives here.

'PAIN IS ACCUMULATING'
The BNZ-Business NZ services PSI was still contracting in February, even if a little less so than in January. As BNZ notes: "February’s Performance of Services Index (PSI) was conceivably better than some might have thought, given Omicron’s escalating spread through the country during the month. But, at 48.6, which was a touch higher than January’s 46.0, the PSI remains weak. February marks the PSI’s seventh consecutive month below the breakeven 50 mark. Pain is accumulating."

'GO FOR IT'
The Commerce Commission has approved the merger of 2 Degrees and Orcon, finding that there it is unlikely to affect competition in the telecoms market.

CHINA NOT AS WEAK AS ASSUMED
China released some February data today, and it was all much more positive than some (me included) were expecting - even if it is benchmarked against a weakish base. Retail sales were up +6.7% year-on-year when +3% was expected. Industrial production was up +7.5% on the same basis when +3.9% was expected. Electricity production was up +4.0%, so the activity they are reporting is probably 'real'. But they did report a rise in their jobless rate to 5.5%, a sharpish rise from 5.1% in January. Of course, the widening lockdowns in March might take the gloss off these February results.

COMMODITY PRICES TURN FAST
Commodity prices seem to have turned lower, mainly on fears the wind is going out of the post-pandemic recovery. Higher interest rates aren't helping. Recession is a word being used more now. Oil prices are down to under US$97/bbl in the US, under US$100/bbl for the international price, a sharp change even since this morning. Most other commodity prices are weak today. The Aussies are fretting.

EYES ON NEXT DAIRY AUCTION
We have a dairy auction early tomorrow morning. The expectation is for another modest increase. But the fast-changing commodity sentiment might unstitch that expectation.

GOLD FALLS FURTHER
In early Asian trading, gold is lower today from this time yesterday, now at US$1949 and down another -US$26.

EQUITY UPDATES
The S&P500 ended its Monday session down -0.7%, with most of the fall early in their trading. But the Dow industrials were up +1.1%; the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down -2.0%. Tokyo has opened up +0.3%. Hong Kong is taking it on the chin again, opening down another -3.6% for a two day loss of -9.1%. Ugly. Shanghai has opened down -2.1% adding to a big loss yesterday too. The ASX200 is down -0.9% following yesterday's surprise rise. The NZX50 is up +0.2% in late trade today.

SWAPS PUSH UP FASTER
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to have risen faster today, an accumulation that can't be ignored. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.49%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is up +10 bps at 2.52%. The China Govt 10yr is up +3 bps at 2.81%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 3.11% (up another +7 bps) and still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 3.09% (up +11 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 2.16% and up another +12 bps from this time yesterday.

NZ DOLLAR DOWN
The Kiwi dollar is now at 67.4 USc down more than -¾c from this time yesterday and the US dollar surges at the expense of commodity currencies. Against the Aussie we are up almost +½c at 93.9 AUc. The Aussie dollar is being hit rather hard. Against the euro we -½c lower at 61.6 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now just under 73.1 and net lower.

BITCOIN FIRMER
Bitcoin has firmed today, now at US$38,985 and and up +2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.6%.

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