Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Bluestone has raised both its floating and fixed rates today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Rabobank raised all their term deposit rates for terms between six and eighteen months.
DAIRY-DOMINANT REGIONS POSITIVE, EVERYONE ELSE GLUM
Westpac reports that regional economic confidence has plunged over the March quarter as households across the country were hit by the one-two punch of the Omicron outbreak and cost-of-living increases. Moreover, these effects were widespread – all but two regions are now in pessimistic territory. Only the Waikato and Southland have a net positive outlook.
AMANDA OWEN TO BE ANZ NZ'S ACTING CFO
ANZ NZ's Chief Financial Officer Stewart Taylor, who is leaving to become CFO of insurer Partners Life, will have his last day at the bank on April 14. Taylor's departure was announced earlier in the week with no leaving date provided. ANZ NZ says its Head of Finance, Amanda Owen, will be Acting CFO from March 28 until a new permanent CFO is appointed.
WHAT PRICE GREEN ALUMINIUM?
ANZ analysts are noting that the supply-issues for global aluminium are putting the remaining producers in a prime position - if they have the electricity supply. Although Russian aluminium itself is not sanctioned, their access to both electricity and bauxite is badly affected. As a result, aluminium buyers are scrambling to secure supply amid low global inventories and strong demand. The upside pressure on prices is likely to remain for the foreseeable future, they say. Does New Zealand benefit from this - or just NZAS?
THE BIG DO THE MOST, THE SMALL DO LITTLE
The results of a Statistics NZ business operations survey of 47,000 business found that while 80% were aware they were having an impact on climate change, only a third said they were doing something active (mostly "reducing waste"). Of the businesses doing meaningful things, most were large enterprises. And most businesses who say they are planning to do something meaningful in the next five years are large businesses. Interestingly, one industry doing major stuff and planning more is the mining industry, says Stats NZ. 16% of mining businesses currently measure GHG emissions, compared with 5% of manufacturing businesses. (Disclosure: interest.co.nz was part of the survey responses. We don't do anything or plan to do anything because it isn't clear what more we can do. I am sure there is something, so suggestions welcome. WFH has always been a part of our operations.)
DON'T LET THE FACTS GET IN THE WAY OF A FIRMLY HELD BIAS
We noted the other day from the 2020 national sector balance sheets that "financial institutions" made up less than 25% of all the assets in the country. And that this was less than in 2007 (26+%) when this series started and less than in 2010 (26+%), ten years earlier. However, here is some detail that might surprise you. Only 11.4% of those assets are at banks. The rest are scattered between insurers , investment funds, "others", pension funds, and "captive financial institutions" (at 5.4% and the largest of the non-banks). We may all grumble about 'bank dominance' but this data clearly shows they and most sectors are getting smaller over time - except households.
RATE RISE KERFUFFLE
Mexico raised its policy rate by +50 bps today, now up at 6.50%. What makes this news is that the Mexican president talked about it hours before the official announcement, confirming there is little central bank independence there.
GOLD UP
In early Asian trading, gold is up +US$15 from this time yesterday at just under US$1962/oz. It ended in New York earlier at US$1957/oz and in London last night at US$1965/oz.
EQUITIES BOOKING IN A POSITIVE WEEK, MOSTLY
The S&P500 ended their Thursday trading up +1.2% with a positive finish at the end. Tokyo has opened today down -0.2% and if it ends like that it will be a good +4.6% weekly rise. Hong Kong has started down -0.2% and if that holds they will be up +0.4% for the week. Shanghai has started up +0.2% and if that holds they will end their week flat. The ASX200 is up +0.5% in early afternoon trade and heading for a weekly gain of +1.7%. But the NZX50 is flat in late trade and heading for a -1.4% weekly loss.
SWAPS SWING BACK HIGHER
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to have risen today. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.57%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is back up +7 bps from this this time yesterday at 2.77%. The China Govt 10yr is back down -2 bps at 2.83%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 3.34% (up +6 bps) and now lower than the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 3.35% (up +9 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 2.37% and a +5 bps rise since this time yesterday. It ended last week at 2.14% so there has been a big +23 bps shift higher so far this week, with one day to go on Wall Street.
NZ DOLLAR HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is now at 69.7 USc and little-changed this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are slightly softer at 63.2 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is still just on 74.9.
BITCOIN UP STEADILY
Bitcoin is up another +2.3% from this time yesterday, now at US$44,032. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.8%.
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51 Comments
Good call. And to add:
"Does New Zealand benefit from this - or just NZAS?"
https://www.nzas.co.nz/pages/nzas-owners/
Not us. Not at all.
Australia has grown into the broad based robust economy that it is by taking risks ... by not being afraid to lead , and to innovate ...
... us Kiwi laggards ... we enjoy " an abundance of caution " , and by being led compliantly by clueless , souless , drab bureaucrats ... we'll wait ... and wait ... until it's safe ... waiting ...
It's great to see travel restrictions being unwound now.
As for the wider economy we're moving into a commodity supercycle and Australia will likely benefit. You can ready see employment numbers looking very sharp and I suspect people will be attracted not least from New Zealand.
Well just as central government is bricking it on a falling population left to carry the can for centrally funded infrastructure and services, so are local government. Central government probably more so given the burden of super annuitants and health care for the aged.
Do any of us have any real intention or meaningful plan? It appears we're all expecting governments and The Economy to lead us out of this, yet it appears these have got us into this mess. We, the people are the solution but it appears we're just as clueless. The EV's, ebikes and green investment is pretend and posture too.
Russians pride themselves at being grandmasters of chess ... but , one can't help but feel Putin has checkmated himself ... rather than scare NATO into backing off , he's emboldened them to be tighter & stronger ...
... if a whiff of chemical or biological weapons drifts across into a NATO country , it is assuredly game on ...
""... if a whiff of chemical or biological weapons drifts across into a NATO country , it is assuredly game on ...""
Interesting to guess what the NATO move would be. Not an invasion on a broad front, not an invasion with troops from a historic enemy: Germany, Poland, Lithuania. Probably a strongly symbolic action by experienced troops not afraid to shoot - something like take control of the air and Russian communications and then a Turkish parachute regiment take control of the Kremlin, Red Square and/or Putin's holiday homes. Japan to reconquest those northern islands. Or rerun the Crimean war.
I believe a chemical attack would trigger NATO airstrikes on some Russian strategic assets in Ukraine, possibly something controlled by the Wagner Group . Probably with a heads up to Russia it was coming to avoid unnecessary loss of Russian troops life. It ratchets up NATO's direct involvement in the invasion but can still be framed as a defensive measure (because the Russian assets are on foreign soil).
Doesn't trigger the nuclear response from Putin unless the regime is intent on total self-annihilation and wants to go down in a blaze of glory. If this is their intention then there is nothing much that can be done to avoid that and we're all f.... NATO cannot give up any more ground so they will have to respond militarily.
In fact Putin has made Russia more vulnerable than ever. The Russian ground forces have been revealed as suspect in action. The airforce unable to secure the skies. The Black Sea navy, stuck where it is. As such they are as a military force markedly weaker than when the invasion commenced. A skirmish! a flare up, on the Polish, Hungarian, Rumanian, Baltic, Slovakian borders could introduce NATO into the war. What reserves does Russia have on hand to deal with that then?
Much as Russia got bogged down in Afghanistan ... followed by the Americans later ... and the US in Iraq ... giant mighty armies made to look second rate by patriotic locals defending their homelands .... you're on a hiding to nothing if you attack the mouse , and the mouse roars ...
Does seem a bit of a miscalculation from 'Vlad the Invader'.
Whatever ultimately transpires in Ukraine, he's drawn Nato closer together, given the participating countries all a good bit of motivation to jack up defence spending, and provided impetus for countries like Finland to seek to join (some interesting polling out of there shows that public appetite has quickly shifted to joining Nato) while also revealing Russia's hand militarily.
Had he stopped at fully seizing control of Crimea/Donbass, parked up the tanks and said 'take one step back towards us and we invade the rest of Ukraine', he probably would have got away with it. Seems unlikely that the Ukrainians would have tried to mount a full scale counterattack. Western nations would have tut-tutted, lobbed a few sanctions, and probably not done much else. Trying to invade the rest of the Ukraine (presumably to topple the government and install a pro-Russian administration) forced everyone's hands.
In the end I'm sure Russia will get what it wants in Ukraine, simply because Russia will be able to bleed for longer than Ukraine in military terms, but at what cost to them in terms of strengthening Nato and weakening their own position in the world?
GBH
re: Putin has "emboldened them (NATO) to be tighter & stronger . . . "
I am wondering what the situation would be if Trump had been returned as President. Trump established a very close friendship with Putin while quite happy to offend NATO and its leaders . . . . makes one wonder if Trump was being purposely groomed by Putin.
Would this keep him in the shadows?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/ex-prosecutor-donald-trump-guilty-of-n…
I am wondering how Vlad the Mad's invasion of Ukraine affects Donald Trump's preselection run for Republican nominee to run against Biden for the 2024 Presidential campaign ... knowing what a fan of Putin the Don is , will he have scuppered his favouritism within the GOP ? ...
Putin doesn't care less about NATO as long as they stay inside of their own borders. NATO can put everything they have in Europe he would not care less. The USA have already said no boots on the ground and a big no to shutting down the airspace, that's all Putin needed to hear.
Lol,are you kidding me?
Nato have been shown the door.
They know if they touch foot in Ukraine ,they are Toast and so are their European command centers etc.
Now Putin is rubbing their faces in their own shit they created by demanding Roubles for the gas they need.This will be followed up next with Roubles for Oil,and metals etc.
All because they insisted on placing missiles on Russia's boarders.
Putin has been very contrained with his counter sanctions.
Russia does not need or want to go nuclear as they have conventional missiles that are far superior than any thing US/Nato have,and Nato knows it.End of story.
Best you stop watching the Western MSM propaganda they are feeding you.
Shows just how little you actually know.
The mistake the free world makes with Russia is in treating it like a real country. It's a bunch of Oligarchs, essentially organized crime running the country. The Russian army has been shown to be a paper tiger, a third world army capable of bullying much smaller, weaker opponents with long range artillery only. The soldiers are mostly not even ethnically Russian, they are poor boys from the east of their empire freezing to death and starving with barely any rations. This war is a logistics disaster for them, complete incompetence by the leadership, which is not surprising. Why work hard for a crime lord if you don't get to enjoy the spoils? Russian missiles are mostly being shot down, with few smart munitions left. Their hypersonic missiles have never been verified, just faked video. If they wanted people to fear some new technology, they would surely display it. Instead they choose to install fear and wonder, and hope we exaggerate their capabilities for them. Even if they had a few 'hypersonics', they wouldn't have enough to turn things around. The war is costing Russia 1 billion per day. Putin has been passing around the hat to China, but they refuse to give weaponry to Russia. Its looking bleak for Vlad, and unfortunately the Russians haven't even felt the sanctions yet, its going to be rough for the people. Unemployment and poverty in Russia will be very high, but he can stay in power if he controls the media, police, and internet trolls. For a while anyway, but how many months can he hold on? Sadly this may not end until at least one Russian city is turned into glass and the people rise up and choose a new crime lord/dictator.
I suggest people watch Aljazeera new and you will see shots from the sky of Mariupol and basically its been leveled. It looks like its been hit with nuclear weapons its that bad. The west is playing down the Russian military big time. Putin is playing for time until he gets wants he wants or he would have just leveled the whole of Ukraine.
I found out today that ANZ offers quite significant mortgage rate discounts for homes that have at least a Homestar 6 rating. A discount of 0.7% for fixed loans. I didn't know that. Our place was certified a couple of months back as Homestar 6, so something I will consider later this year when we need to re-mortgage.
HM, its slightly better than that:
ANZ reward customers buying, building or renovating a home to a Homestar rating of 6 or higher and gives you a discount of up to 1.00% p.a. on your interest rate providing you deposit your full salary into your ANZ transactional account.
This. Higher quality. Lower energy consumption costs. Energy is only going to get more expensive, those houses that are more efficient will begin to attract a premium. Rental minimum standards are also likely to increase over time, these houses are ahead of the game and the banks know it. Remember, until you've paid off the mortgage it's pretty much still belongs to the bank.
Is the govt. worried there might be some legal claims over the mandates?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-defence-police-vaccine-m…
Can some resident "legal beagle" explain why the government would bother appealing this? Seems a total waste of time and taxpayer money if the mandates are being wound back.
Is it some weird attitude of not wanting to be seen to take an L (to the extent it is one) on something?
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