What happened Monday

Business / news

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; more big home loan rate rises, term deposit rises, Infrastructure Commission knows why, Aussie jobs demand high, swaps stable, NZD stable, & more

4th Apr 22, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Today it was Kiwibank who raised many fixed rates - but not their one year 3.99% rate. More here. Bank of China raised all their fixed rates, including their one year, but that is now up +20 bps to only 3.85%. The Police Credit Union set their one year fixed rate at 4.40% - and also launched a new reverse mortgage product, at 5.75%, (below SBS Bank's equivalent at 5.85% and well below Heartland Bank at 6.45%).

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank launched a new (for them) 90 Day NoticeSaver account, at 2.00%. Kiwibank raised almost all their term deposit rates by +10% to +50 bps. The Police Credit Union raised their TD offers fron +10 bps to +60 bps.

WHAT RESPONDING TO THE WELL-CONNECTED RICH DOES
A new Infrastructure Commission report points the finger at changes in local council development policies as the cause of the housing crisis. It said town planning moved away from facilitating growth to maintaining character of existing suburbs leading to a reduction in housing supply, and that strangled supply for decades.

LOTS OF WELL-PAYING JOBS
In Australia, an upward revision to February job ad levels which were maintained in March points to further solid employment gains and upward pressure on wages growth. March was the first time ever they posted more than 250,000 job ads.

SCOMO'S LAST HURRAH?
Behind in the polls significantly, the Australian coalition government seems to be waiting until the very last minute to call its federal election. Even the Murdoch press seems resigned to the likelihood Scott Morrison can't make a miracle comeback this time - because he seems to be the weak link in all of this.

THE COST OF WAR CRIMES
We report economic news, but it is in the shadows today as the scale of the barbarity is revealed as Russian forces pull back from the Kyiv region. It has generated European horror, solidifying their resolve to toughen sanctions further even at considerable cost to themselves. Clearly financial consequences are not driving this new push, even if there will be many - like the further rise in the natural gas price, back near its recent October high - although still miles lower than its record 2008 levels..

GOLD SOFT
In early Asian trading, gold is down -US$6 from where we opened this time morning, now just on US$1920/oz.

EQUITY TURMOIL
The NZX50 is down a mere -0.1% in late afternoon trade today. And that is actually quite a heroic position, mainly because the NZX has made a right royal balls-up of listing the Air New Zealand rights issue, stumbling through two trading halts in the process. Away from the carnage, FPH, IFT and SPK have all posted outsized gains today. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in midday Monday trade. Tokyo has opened flat in early trade. Hong Kong has opened up a strong +1.1%. Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges are closed today and tomorrow for the Qingming (Tomb Sweeping) holiday. The S&P500 futures suggest Wall Street will open tomorrow down a minor -0.1%.

SWAPS LITTLE CHANGED
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to be little-changed. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 1.67%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is down -2 bps from this morning, now at 2.83%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 2.82%. And the New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now marginally higher at 3.32% (up +2 bps) and still above the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 3.29% (up +2 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 2.42% and a +3 bps recovery since this morning.

NZ DOLLAR LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is now at 69.3 USc marginally higher today but just where it was this time Friday. Against the Aussie we are a little softer at 92.2 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 62.7 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 74.5.

BITCOIN LOWER
Bitcoin is down -1.1% today from where we opened this morning to now be at US$45,885. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.8%.

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24 Comments

by Foxglove. | 4th Apr 22, 4:25pm 1649046320

War crimes. Underneath it all it is pretty obvious that nothing much has ever changed in Russia despite hopes from the West that it had and which now prove to have been in vain and naive. Russia remains the enigma in a puzzle as per Churchill and with all the brutal history of that unabated. For instance what occurred in the suburbs of Kviv is but a small rerun of the Katyn Forest massacre of the Polish military in 1940. It would have been, I suggest better to just have left it all alone, behind the Iron Curtain, all to themselves. Politics then were decidedly more clear cut and predictable.

by Chinaman1 | 4th Apr 22, 6:40pm 1649054409

There is of course another side of the storey.

russia have tried to assimilate into the west but the west doesn't want them. America has always needed an enemy to help fund the war machine. Do you know how many time Russia has tried to join nato?

Methinks biden and the dems wanted this war as much as putin.

by Foxglove. | 4th Apr 22, 6:51pm 1649055079

Russia desires NATO membership. That wouldn’t be a white ant, but a bloody big red one. NATO was formed, in the same fashion as the Marshall plan, as a united defence against Russia. You might as well contemplate Glasgow Rangers joining Celtic! But it would raise a rather complex question. What would be triggered should one NATO member attack another NATO member.

by Wilco | 4th Apr 22, 4:28pm 1649046503

I am always amazed that those at the top table can continue to converse in a most civilized manner while those poor buggers three layers lower are busy trying to kill and maim each other.

by Chinaman1 | 4th Apr 22, 6:41pm 1649054460

Always has been and always will be.

They just want to make you think you have some sort of say.

by sit23 | 4th Apr 22, 5:31pm 1649050291

Best keep the jury out on "Russian Barbarity". Any Russian barbarity reported by Ukrainians can be taken with a grain of salt. The Ukrainians are not "goodies" and the Russians "baddies" in what is going on there. The Ukrainian track record on civil and military atrocities, and political manipulation, is not flash either. Could be fake or true.

by Fitzgerald | 4th Apr 22, 5:43pm 1649051026

What the absolute heck are you talking about?

Check yourself, really ask yourself whether you have fallen into a rabbit hole. Have you been sucked in by internet misinformation? Really ask that question of yourself.

by Chinaman1 | 4th Apr 22, 6:43pm 1649054600

Taking things you hear in the main stream media with a grain of salt is best practice.

He's not saying it didn't happen. But the propaganda war is rife on both sides.

by Fitzgerald | 4th Apr 22, 6:59pm 1649055599

No. He is saying that Ukrainian civilians, men, women and children, who have been killed in their own country, are not "goodies".

Like, wtf is that meant to mean? That it is OK to kill them, to bomb their buildings, because they are not "goodies"?

Inhumane, Orwellian nonsense.

by KH | 4th Apr 22, 8:29pm 1649060950

Ukraine has been shelling folk in the Donblas for near a decade. But let's not mention that.

Ukraine believes them to be it's own citizens. Go figure.

"........An OHCHR report from March 2016 stated that the organization had "collected detailed information about the conduct of hostilities by Ukrainian armed forces and the Azov regiment in and around Shyrokyne (31km east of Mariupol), from the summer of 2014 to date. Mass looting of civilian homes was documented, as well as targeting of civilian areas between September 2014 and February 2015......... "

Don't believe anyhing on the day

by Chinaman1 | 4th Apr 22, 8:37pm 1649061460

Ok so not swallowing everything the herald says = its ok to kill and bomb civilians.

Orwellian indeed

by Fluffybunny | 4th Apr 22, 7:04pm 1649055890

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion#Human_rights_violations_and_war_crimes

So ethnic Russians in the east have been detained, robbed, kidnapped tortured, worse.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-parliament-language-idUSKCN1S111N

Ethnic russians have been subject to state-sponsored attacks on their culture.

Its an ethnic/civil war that's been raging for years and has been getting sweet bugger all of your previous attention.

I'm no russian fan & I'm sure both sides are equally acting like bag of d***s. But i'm not stupid enough to get riled up just because the MSM bandwagon rolls past.. full of sweet democratic indignation.

The whole country is a hard right, corrupt hole. There's a reason no other country is willing to put actual lives on the line...

By feeding them the ability to continue the war (weapons) At best we (west) are using the people of Ukraine as cannon fodder for our high ideals.

Best we stay out of it...

by agnostium | 4th Apr 22, 8:46pm 1649061973

I'm just curious why all of you lot who think the main stream media (whatever that is) is intent on lying about what is going on in Ukraine? It was the same thing with covid deniers. The ones I spoke to were 100% convinced that it was all a big lie but when I tried to find out who was behind the lie and why it was all either very defensive (you wouldn't understand, do your own research) or just plain bonkers Bill Gates was trying to get the human population down.

So I'm really interested to know why you think war reporters from the "msm" would willingly enter a war zone, put their lives at risk and then make up lies. Why?

by nigelh | 4th Apr 22, 9:13pm 1649063583

Its not necessarily that they are lying. It's just their current emphasis is too one sided and what happened 5 odd years ago is either conveniently omitted or unknown to the relevant reporter/journalist.

by agnostium | 5th Apr 22, 7:24am 1649100245

Good, so we agree that Russia has invaded a sovereign state, sent conscripts to the front line to fight, is bombing Ukrain's cities and citizens to s**t, it's troops are carrying out rape, executions and other war crimes, directly targeting civilians and the press, Putin is keeping people back in Russia in the dark about the whole thing, imprisoning those who try to report it.

But you want more balanced reporting??? To me it seems pretty clear what the mainstream media should be focusing their reporting on. All of us who are sitting comfortably miles away from the destruction and murder are going to take a very small hit due to the economic repercussions of the sanctions and it's important we are well informed of the reasons why. This is a conflict where it's no good to just sit on the fence, you have to pick a side and I for one am absolutely certain I don't want to be on the Russian one.

by Uninterested | 4th Apr 22, 6:03pm 1649052213

Infill housing has up until recently been the thing that people did. In the area I live in it used to be 400m2 min section size to do that. Now it seems that you can fit twice as many on sections. So you have no trees or even space for a decent garden. That certainly takes away the character! And the natural environment. And in summer creates heat and the need for aircond. And in winter it creates a need for heating (no sun for some).

Wonderful.

Not.

by HouseMouse | 4th Apr 22, 6:30pm 1649053845

The Infrastructure Commission makes plenty of good points but it's also pretty biased. It's surely not coincidental that it has been released just two weeks before Auckland Council consults on major planning changes for Auckland.

A lot of people value things like character housing, treed environments, outlook, sun, light. For good reason.

The protection of character and amenity went too far, but things are at risk of going too far the other way now thanks to the government's mandates...

by agnostium | 4th Apr 22, 8:53pm 1649062414

Nah, the reason why you end up with crap infill is because the planning rules were designed to indirectly restrict the amount of infill that could be carried out (minimum parking requirements, setbacks, recession planes, blanket heritage designations across whole suburbs). They were there to stop more housing in the wealthy inner suburbs and force car dependent urban sprawl. Removing these rules will allow better types of development (e.g. perimeter block housing rather than sausage flats). Over time the rules will allow better, more intense development closer to good public transport links and amenity. Unfortunately it is going to take time.

by Uninterested | 5th Apr 22, 7:59am 1649102389

Perimeter block housing with perimeter block housing right hard up against it on the other, sunny side.

Great.

by Justa comment | 4th Apr 22, 6:52pm 1649055160

Re OCR- RBNZ is behind the curve, maybe middle ground: for the next two meetings one at 0.5 and one at 0.25, in any order.

by Smudge02 | 4th Apr 22, 7:19pm 1649056784

Well if they go .25 this month it sends a clear message as to who their priority is, and it ain’t the working middle class.

by Justa comment | 4th Apr 22, 7:53pm 1649058801

exactly, time to stop subsidizing high street and consider main street....

by Carlos67 | 5th Apr 22, 3:04am 1649084669

They have already shown their priority at the last meeting with a 0.25 that's why everyone knows its another 0.25 next meeting.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 4th Apr 22, 9:49pm 1649065793

When the PMs talking at the podium

I see red I see red I see red

... apologies to Split Enz .. . But , this red will never enz ... it's like the country is stuck in a Franz Kafka novel ... and all we'll ever see is red .... neverending red ...