A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; we are back after a painful outage. ANZ cuts a key rate, confidence slips, spending soft, RBA raises +50 bps, swaps up, NZD mixed, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ cut its two year rate today by -35 bps, putting that carded rate below all its main rivals. More here.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Nothing to report here.

HOLDING HIGH
June commodity prices slipped in world price terms, but rose in NZD terms as our currency slipped. But overall they stayed high. Dairy and horticulture rose, but meat forestry and aluminium fell in June from May.

RESILIENT
Despite a further fall in economic confidence, the NZIER's June Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) highlighted resilient economic conditions in recent months with trading activity holding up, along with continued strong inflation pressures. That's consistent with forecasts for another +50 bps rise from the RBNZ next week. The worry this survey reports is in contrast to the good activity it reports. But cost pressures are certainly adding to the downbeat mood.

APOLOGIES
We have suffered a severe server outage today – at about the worst possible time for our tech team. Sod was in the house. It was an internal issue. Our apologies, because we had important updates we couldn’t bring you. Some updates will be posted later. More tomorrow.

SPENDING THE SAME, GETTING LESS
New consumer spending data released by Worldline (ex-Paymark) today suggests Kiwis are spending about the same as they were a year ago but getting less for their dollar – while the first Matariki long-weekend provided a welcome boost for the Hospitality sector in the regions. Consumer spending reached almost $2.8 bln in June, up just +1.0% on June last year and well below the latest reported annual inflation rate of 6.9%.

RBA RAISES +50 BPS, MORE TO COME
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its office cash target rate by +50 bps to 1.35%. "The Board expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions in Australia over the months ahead. The size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data ..." they said.

SWAP RATES RECOVER
Wholesale swap rates recovered yesterday's 10 bps fall, but are still tracking in a lower trend. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged aat 2.83% today. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.54% and up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 2.86% and -1 bp lower. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 3.72%, up +9 bps this time yesterday and now above the earlier RBNZ fix for this bond which was up +2 bps to 3.69%. The UST 10 year is now at 2.90% ahead of Wall Street's Tuesday open.

EQUITY PRICES RISE
The NZX50 was up almost -1.0% today on top of yesterday's good gain. The ASX200 rose +0.3%. Tokyo was up +1.0% too. Hong Kong was up +0.1%, and Shanghai was flat. All eyes are on New York now.

GOLD DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$3 from this morning at US$1810/oz.

NZD MIXED
The Kiwi dollar is -40 bps softer from this time yesterday at 61.6 USc. Against the AUD we have firmed +40 bps to 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are +20 bps firmer at 59.7 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is now just over 70.1.

BITCOIN UP
Bitcoin is now at US$19,881 and up +3.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/-3.4%.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE WITH US

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