A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; BNZ raises TD rates, Vulcan buys Ullrich, IAG signals premium hikes, Japan gets sustained inflation, swaps fall, NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
BNZ increased its term deposit rates and their new 9 month 3.30% rate is notable as now the best of any main bank for this term.

HOME LOAN AFFORABILITY NO BETTER
First home buyers must navigate between the swings and roundabouts of lower house prices and higher mortgage interest rates. Nationally, it still takes 47% of take-home pay to service a mortgage for a lower quartile house purchased in June 2022 with a 10% deposit. It's much worse in Auckland which remains a hideously expensive place for first home buyers. 

VULCAN STEEL ACQUIRES ULLRICH ALUMINIUM
In 1961 an aluminium importing company was founded in Auckland, Ullrich Aluminium. It quickly morphed into a farbricator. Then it expanded fast both here and in Australia where it became substantial. Now it has been sold by owner Gilbert Ullrich of Manukau City for $165 mln to Vulcan Steel, also an Auckland company, and also with a strong distribution base in Australia.

PRICE HIKES FOR CUSTOMERS, MORE PERILS, LOSS ON SHAREHOLDER FUNDS
The big Australian general insurance giant IAG (even more dominant in New Zealand) has reported group results for 2022 and the outlook for 2023, a release that never mentions New Zealand. They are riding higher gross written premiums and a AU$347 mln profit (compared to a -AU$427 mln less in 2021). They expect premium growth will be higher in 2023. They also report much higher natural peril costs requiring a strengthening of provisions, and their shareholder funds have been pushed lower by -AU$105 mln. The annual report might release some transparency on their New Zealand operations when it is released on August 12, 2022

JAPAN FINALLY GETS SOME SUSTAINED INFLATION
Japan reported June CPI inflation today with their headline rate now at 2.4%, down fractionally from 2.5% in May, and still above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%. It's been above that target for three consecutive months now. It's been seven years since they have had inflation like this and that was because of a GST hike. Excluding that, is been 32 years.

SWAP RATES FALL
Wholesale swap rates may have suffered some retreat today, maybe about -7 bps on global forces. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps to 3.14%. It was 3.10% this time last week. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.49% and down -8 bps from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 2.80% and up +1 bp. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -7 bps at 3.73%, and now just above the earlier RBNZ fix for this bond which was down -7 bps to 3.72%. The UST 10 year is now down at 2.90% and an -11 bps retreat from this time yesterday. A week ago it was at 2.96%.

EQUITIES FIRM
The S&P rose another +1.0% on Wall Street earlier today, building on the prior day's big gain. So far this week this index is up +3.5%, basically on healthy earnings reports and positive outlooks. Tokyo has opened +0.3% firmer and heading for a +4.0% weekly surge. Hong Kong has opened up +0.7% today and heading for a weekly rise of 1.2%. Shanghai is up +0.5 in their early Friday trade and heading for a weekly +1.7% gain. The ASX200 is flat in afternoon trade but heading for a +3.0% weekly rise, most of it on Wednesday. The NZX50 is also flat in Friday late trade heading for a weekly rise of +1.4%.

GOLD RECOVERS
In early Asian trade, gold has risen +US$24 from this time yesterday, now at US$1,717/oz.

NZD FIRM
The Kiwi dollar has held 62.4 USc from this time yesterday. Against the AUD we are soft at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 61.2 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is still just under 71.1 and will end the week up +40 bps.

BITCOIN HOLDS
Bitcoin is now at US$23,115 and down another -0.7% from this time yesterday, so really still holding its recent gains. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/-2.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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