A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; Barfoots very quiet, GHG emissions fall, yuan weakens despite PBoC, Aussie C/A strong on minerals demand, swaps on hold, NZD on hold, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
China Construction Bank raised its one year fixed rate by +20 bps to 5.15%.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ICBC raised savings and term deposit rates. Its new 1 year rate is now 4.20%, and matching the Bank of China and CCB as the market leaders.

14 YEAR LOW
Auckland's dominant realtor Barfoot & Thompson reported a sales slump in August with prices lower than a year ago as stock levels rose to an 11 year high. The number of their sales transactions fell to the lowest since 2008 for any August. They claim they have 1600+ salespeople and 80 offices. They closed only 578 transactions in August 2022. Separately, the latest monthly mortgage figures show a market that has gone from raging hot to freezing cold in a very short space of time.

GOING BACKWARDS, IN A GOOD WAY
Statistics NZ released data today that shows our greenhouse gas emissions fell in calendar 2021 from pandemic-challenged calendar 2020. Industry emissions decreased -0.4% (-283 kilotonnes), largely due to decreases in Taranaki (down -715 kilotonnes), Northland (down -223 kilotonnes), and Southland (down -141 kilotonnes). But household emissions increased +1.1% (+85 kilotonnes), largely due to increases in Northland (up +26 kilotonnes), Bay of Plenty (up +23 kilotonnes), and Waikato (up +23 kilotonnes). The Auckland region is home to 33% of the population, who emitted 2,402 kilotonnes (30%) of all household emissions in 2021. This was -0.3% lower than the previous year. Auckland's industry emissions fell -0.9% on the same basis. Between the two emissions fell -71 kilotonnes on 2021 from 2020 and is a -9.1% reduction in ten years (-970 kilotonnes). This data stands in contrast to the breathless warnings about how bad we are doing.

DEBT CAPITAL MARKETS GUIDELINES ISSUED
The New Zealand Financial Markets Association (NZFMA) has issued best practice guidelines for the operation of NZ's debt capital markets for the first time. They're intended to give issuers, investors and intermediaries guidance on best practice in market issuance. The guidelines aren't binding. Rather they're intended to prompt market participants to consider the best interests of the wider market when undertaking market activities or making decisions.

UNABLE TO HOLD BACK MARKET FORCES
In China, their central bank cut its FX reserve ratio yesterday from 8% to 6% to bolster the yuan. But today they set the official CNY:USD rate at 6.91, its weakest since August 2020. Markets have driven it lower since.

LUCKY IN TRADE
Australia's current account surplus jumped to +AU18.3 bln in the June quarter, from a downwardly revised +AU$2.8 bln in Q1. Despite the surge, it was less than the +AU$21 bln markets expected. Within that, their trade surplus widened to +AU43 bln in Q2 from +AU$27 bln in Q1-2022. (When we get our NZ current account data next week, we will show deficits and huge variations from the Aussie experience.) Despite this strong trade showing, analysts are downgrading Q2 GDP growth for Australia from a +4.5% rate for Q2 to +3.6%, on weaker "public demand' metrics.

HOLDING & 'DISAPPOINTING'
US vehicle sales came in at an annual rate of 13.2 mln in August, holding the levels they have had for the prior three months. Supply-chain issues seem to be easing there, but they were in evidence for August and the result was considered a disappointment.

SWAP RATES UNCHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today we all wait for the US to take its long weekend holiday. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 3.51%. That is still near its highest since July 2016. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.66% and unchanged from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is marginally softer at 2.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.04% and up +5 bps from this time yesterday and now just above the earlier RBNZ fix for this bond which was up +7 bps at 4.03%. The UST 10 year has now still at 3.21% and firming slightly ahead of their return to work.

EQUITIES STAY ON HOLD
Wall Street is still on holiday, but futures trading suggests the S&P500 will open up +0.5% tomorrow. Tokyo has opened unchanged in Tuesday trade. Hong Kong is down -0.4% in early trade. Shanghai is up +0.5% in their opening session. The ASX200 is up a minor +0.2% and the NZX50 is down an equally minor -0.3% in late trade.

GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$9 from this time yesterday to US$1,718/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is now up at 61.2 USc, and marginally firmer than this time yesterday. Against the AUD we are unchanged from yesterday at 89.7 AUc. Against the euro we are at 61.5 euro cents and also little-changed. That all means our TWI-5 is still at 70.7.

BITCOIN IN MINOR SLIP
Bitcoin has been marginally softer, now at US$19,726 and down -0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».