Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB raised its floating rate by +50 bps to 7.25%. They also raised fixed rates, as did China Construction Bank.
SAVINGS & TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
BNZ raised their term deposit rates today, but none are to market leading levels.
EASING BACK
BusinessNZ and BNZ are reporting that the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) continues to be choppy month-to-month. After a decent push higher in August, up to 54.8, the PMI eased back to a slower pace of 52.0 in September. Any reading over 50 is an expansion, under 50 is a contraction. After a strong rise in August, new orders fell heavily in September, and a significant weakness. Employment is barely positive.
FINAL BIG ALLOCATION
The Christchurch Earthquake Appeal Trust established in 2011 distributed $6.8 mln in grants today, mainly to Christchurch City Council for 'community projects". This seems to be the final significant distribution of the $15 mln raised by the Trust.
SAVING - WITH APPLE
Apple users will soon have access to an Apple Savings account. “Apple Card users will be able to open the new high-yield savings account and have their daily cash automatically deposited into it -- with no fees, no minimum deposits and no minimum balance requirements”. "High yield" is apparently 3%. "Daily cash" refers to the rewards that card users generate through their purchases via the Apple Card. It's a partnership with Goldman Sachs.
DO THEY ACTUALLY CARE?
With homelessness soaring here, and at unprecedented levels (almost three times the levels above it was when this Government took office eight years ago), they are offering to allocate $6.8 mln to community organisations at the cliff-face. There are more than 4000 people living "without shelter", more than 2000 in "temporary accommodation", and more than 50,000 in shared accommodation in severely crowded situations. Another 60,000 people are in "uninhabitable housing" (lacking access to one of six basic amenities). Given those levels, I think the response is an insult to humanity. (And yes, this is 2018 data. Let me know the link to 2022 data if you know.) There are 1,943,000 households in New Zealand, and 689,000 are in rented or 'free' accommodation. That puts the scale of this problem into perspective. It's huge.
"BUT TOGETHER WE CAN DO AMAZING THINGS"
If you have 3 minutes, this will lift your spirits.
LESS MILK PRODUCED
After reducing their milk collection forecast in early September, Fonterra has reduced it again today. Their revised forecast for its 2022/23 New Zealand milk collections is down to 1,480 million kilograms of milk solids (kgMS), down from its previous September forecast of 1,495 million kgMS, itself a reduction from the initial 1,510 million kgMS. Getting the blame is "variable weather conditions which caused a slow start on farm have continued".
RECESSIONS TAME INFLATION
Earlier today we got the American CPI data for September. It was more stubborn than expected and embedded at 8.2% pa and a 40 year high. Now we have the Chinese equivalent. This is as expected at 2.8% and a small rise. The Chinese also reported that producer prices rose at only +0.9% in September from a year ago, a very low rate and mirroring the struggles the Chinese economy currently faces.
A FATHER'S PRICE
The father of a mainland Chinese woman who splashed ink on a Xi Jinping poster in 2018 has died in prison, according to human rights activists and media reports. His body was said to be covered in bruises and wounds. Dong Yaoqiong earned the nickname “ink girl” after she live-streamed herself splashing ink on a billboard featuring the Chinese leader in Shanghai in 2018, saying she “opposed Xi Jinping’s dictatorship and tyranny.” She was later sent to psychiatric facility. Her father, Dong Jianbiao, fought for her release but was eventually arrested and sentenced to three years in prison.
SWAP RATES FIRMER AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are firmer on both local and global trends yet again although they may be up lesser than recent rises. The key real action comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up another +3 bps at 3.98% and back at its highest since January 2009 when it was on its way down from 8.89%. Prior to that is was never as low as 4%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.01% and little-changed from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 2.74%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.54%, and up +2 bps (up +30 bps in a week) and now about the same as the earlier RBNZ fix for this bond at 4.55% which was up +6 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 10 year is now at 3.94% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday. From this time last week it is up +11 bps.
EQUITIES ALL OVER THE PLACE
Wall Street ended stronger today with the S&P500 up +2.6% at their Thursday close inj a rising trend. This index is up +0.8% for the week so far with one trading day to go. Tokyo is also up strongly, up +2.8% today at their opening. Hong Kong started today up +1.7%. But Shanghai has started down another -0.3%. The ASX200 is up +1.7% in early afternoon trade, and the NZX50 is up +0.7% in late trade. Both these local indexes are heading for a weekly dip of -0.2% however.
GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1661/oz and down -US$9 from this time yesterday. From this time last week, it is down -US$50/oz.
NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar has firmed +½c from this time yesterday to be just over 56.6 USc. A week ago it was at about the same level. Against the AUD we are about a +¼c firmer at 89.6 AUc. Against the euro we are firmish at 57.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is at 67.2 and up +30 bps. A week ago our TWI-5 was at 67.1, so little changed.
BITCOIN FIRM
Bitcoin is firmer today, now at US$19,423 and up +1.6% this time yesterday. From this time last week this is -2.9% lower. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just over +/- 3.5%.
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