A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; rate change front quiet, auction activity low, home loan affordability worse, population growth low, swaps retreat, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The only change so far today is from the Police Credit Union who raised rates across the board.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
The Police Credit Union also raised term deposit rates.

BUSINESS BANKING RATES
ANZ's business rates have risen +50 bps, so their Indicator Rate is now 11.6%, their Business overdraft rate is now 13.6%, and their Agri Current account rate is now 9.8%. (Home loan borrowers can see from these rates how they get priority, all as a consequence of the RBNZ capital adequacy rules.)

WHS UPDATED
We have updated our handy profile of the Warehouse Group (WHS, #24), the last of the NZX50 companies that had a June or July financial year end reporting.

IT ISN'T HAPPENING
A third of properties sold under the hammer as auction rooms last week. We're halfway through spring but there's no sign of a lift in residential auction activity.

GOING BACKWARDS
In case you missed it over the weekend when we released the September update of our home loan affordability report, first home buyers now far less likely to be able to afford a home of their own than 3 years ago. Over that time, the position of aspiring first home buyers has deteriorated substantially.

SLOWEST POPULATION GROWTH SINCE THE 80s
Statistics NZ says a migration loss contributed to a net growth of just +0.2% in the population in the year to June, while the natural population increase of 24,100 was the lowest since World War II. They estimate our June population at 5,124,100 with Auckland becoming the source of growth for regional New Zealand.

SHARPISH DEVALUATION
We should note that the yuan is depreciating fast today, just as PRC equity markets are falling too (see below). It is now at 7.1668 yuan to the US dollar or 4.087 yuan to the NZD.

SWAP RATES RETREAT
Wholesale swap rates are noticeably weaker today so far. The key real action comes near the close however. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 4.13%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.11% and down -21 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.74%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.60%, and down -6 bps and now marginally above the earlier RBNZ fix for this bond at 4.59% which was down -10 bps from this time Friday. The UST 10 year is now at 4.21% slipping slightly from this morning.

EQUITIES RISE EXCEPT FOR PRC MARKETS
Wall Street ended their Monday session rising with the S&P500 up +1.2%. Tokyo has started today up +0.7% and building on yesterday's rise. Hong Kong however is still in a major retreat, down -1.3% in early trade after yesterday's shock -6.4% rout. Shanghai fell -2.0% yesterday and has opened today down another -0.8%. (In the absence of the Hong Kong collapse, this Shanghai result would be big news.) The ASX200 is up +0.3%, handicapped by the China links of many of their listed companies. The NZX50 is far less exposed, and is up +0.9% in late trade.

GOLD STABLE
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1650/oz and unchanged from this morning.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is a little firmer at just on 57 USc. Against the AUD we are a little softer at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 57.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is at 67.6 and also little-changed.

BITCOIN UNCHANGED
Bitcoin is firmer today, now at US$19,261 and virtually unchanged from this morning's open. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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