Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Unity Money raised its one year fixed rate.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here today.
THE CONSTRUCTION GOLDRUSH ...
Almost 1 million sqm of new warehouse space was consented in the September year, enough to cover 100 ha (270 acres and enough to cover all of Newmarket, Auckland.) New warehouses and factories the stars of the commercial construction sector with 1.4 million sqm of new space consented.
... PUSHING UP CONCRETE PRODUCTION
Ready-mixed concrete produced in the September quarter was an all-time record for a Q3 at 1,157,604 m3. That is well above the Q3-2021 period of course because we were partly locked down then. But it is also +7.5% more than the average for the prior five years. But the main gains were in Auckland, up +9.2% on that basis. Wellington fell -6% and Christchurch fell -16% on the same basis.
NZGB DEBT POPULAR
105 bids were received today for the $400 mln on offer in the three parcels of NZ Government debt that was tendered, and almost $1.4 bln was bid. The April 2025 $200 tranche was won by 15 bidders, from the 35 who bid $565 mln. The winning yield was 4.52%, up from 4.41% two weeks ago. The most popular tranche was the $150 mln May 2032, but only 2 bidders won anything (of 47), and they got it at a yield of 4.43%, up from 4.32% two weeks ago. The final $50 mln of April 2037 paper was popular too, attracting $141 mln in bids from 23 bidders. But only 7 were successful at 4.66%, which was up from 3.74% when this was last offered three months ago.
EQC GETS REINSURANCE SUPPORT
The international reinsurance world continues to show strong support and confidence in New Zealand’s national hazard insurance scheme in a challenging reinsurance market, EQC says. The Government support also helps, and reinsurers recognise the wide range of perils EQC covers and that this supports the broad uptake of home insurance across our high-risk country, which in turn spreads the risks for reinsurers. Our national scheme limits the average annual premium to $480, compared to many thousands in other countries - if you can even get equivalent cover there.
RISING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
In Australia, consumer inflation expectations rose to 6% in November, up from 5.4% where they had been anchored for the prior two months.
SWAP RATES FALL
Wholesale swap rates may have given up most of the recent strong lift but most of the real action happens near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps at 4.19%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.80% and down -15 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.71%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.49%, and down -17 bps from this time yesterday and now well below the RBNZ fix for the NZGB 10 year which was down -4 bps at 4.52%. The UST 10 year is now at 4.09% and down -6 bps from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES SLIDE
In a volatile session on Wall Street, the S&P500 ended down -2.1% in its Wednesday trade. Tokyo has opened -1.0% lower. Hong Kong has opened -2.0% lower, Shanghai has opened -0.7% lower. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. The NZX50 is down -0.2% in late trade.
GOLD STAYS UP
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1708/oz and little-changed from this time yesterday, holding on to most of its recent resurgence.
NZD RETREATS
The Kiwi dollar is lower at 58.9 USc and retreating -60 bps. Against the AUD we are also little-changed at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we soft at 58.7 euro cents and more than -¼c lower. That all means our TWI-5 is now at 69.1 and down -50 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN DUMPED FURTHER
Bitcoin is sharply lower again today, now at US$16,217 and down another -12% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme again at just over +/- 9.4%. At one point it dipped to US$15,555 so there has been a small bounce since that low point. Here's an explainer.
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63 Comments
Williams Corporation, whose young founders travel around the country in private jets, offers staff redundancy. Managing director Matthew Horncastle says he hoped to avoid layoffs. Staff were told in a letter this week that overheads needed to be cut by 15% to 30%.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/130433028/prolific-townhouse-…
Not sure if its in the above article but they referenced in the herald that they had anticipated selling 1600 homes / per year and sold 800 last year and 500 this year... If 1600 homes are in the expected revenue line then the 30% might not be enough of a haircut.
Makes you wonder how the smaller players might be faring then. There seem to be so many "Williams Corp Jr" outfits around these days ... I would imagine that they are doing it even tougher (on the flipside, I guess they aren't flying around in private jets so maybe that saves a few dollars).
If these guys are the 3rd generation of the ex Coast ChCh Horncastles who built a major hotel/motel property group from nothing back in the post WW2 period then it's likely the old story:
"fu bu guo san dai"
Clogs to clogs in three generations
https://www.internationalinvestment.net/internationalinvestment/news/35…
Peter Thiel reckons about USD4.3 million for a BTC.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2022/04/07/peter-thiel-crypto-b…
Should we say it needs to crash by December 2024 then? And the crash can either be to zero or even let's say half of the current value?
Happy to take that bet. Will save a copy of this comment, chuck a reminder in my calendar, and - if you're still around in two years - I will genuinely transfer you $100 if ya win!
Bollocks idea of the day -
$54 million funding pot for projects that will transform NZ tourism | Stuff.co.nz
EQC. Let’s just hope that those funds levied directly by the government on NZ insurance policy holders for their financial protection from natural disasters are left alone by said governments and not siphoned off for expenditure elsewhere. Roger Douglas shifted these funds onto the government books but he wasn’t the first to do so. Don’t think any of the deficiencies that were exposed by the Canterbury EQs in this regard, have been addressed.
I thought the republicans were the threat to democracy? Or did someone forget to reprogram the voting machine?
"A state lawmaker in Pennsylvania was re-elected on Tuesday despite passing away last month.
Tony DeLuca, a Democrat, died of lymphoma on Oct. 9, DeLuca was 85.
DeLuca, who served in the state legislature for 39 years, defeated the Green Party’s Queonia “Zarah” Livingston, garnering more than 85% of the vote "
Golds pretty boring. Even some gold-bug monied types I know have been investing in physical goods more than gold over the last 24 months.
I'm not a chart follower, but presumably anyone hoarding fuel, weapons, food, caravans, etc will likely have out performed gold and most other inflation hedging stores of wealth in the last 1-2 years.
There might even be a long term story there.
It’s mainly for Boomers like me. Physical coins are usually buy now and wait a month or more for supply. Buy/Sell margins are terrible so it’s a long term hold. Silver is fun to play with in bulk but Gold is more efficient to store/hide. I bought most in June 2020. It’s a push on value since then. Still wish I had more.
In Australia, consumer inflation expectations rose to 6% in November, up from 5.4% where they had been anchored for the prior two months.
Yeah but RBA have hardly given people confidence they are willing to fight inflation.
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