Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
In addition to the small increases from Westpac which came in late yesterday, BNZ, TSB and HSBC also raised TD rates today. HSBC also raised its savings rate.
BRACE YOURSELF
On Wednesday, January 25, we will get the Q4-2023 CPI result. We already have the food price component (+11.3%), but the MBIE petrol price monitoring shows that this component will show a -11% drop from Q2, and a -5.3% drop from Q4-2021. It is not easy to imagine other costs that will have similarly declined. The RBNZ reckons overall prices will have risen. So do many analysts.
THEY ARE BACK - TO 62% OF 2019 LEVELS
According to the November data from Stats NZ, out today, there were 231,300 visitor arrivals in the month, a sharp increase from October (161,600). Of special note is that this is a recovery back to 2012 levels. The usual pattern is for this to rise by about +1300,000 to +150,000 in December. If we had anywhere near rise this year, that will be a significant boost to local spending. Tourist arrivals now exceed resident departures on vacation.
CAPITAL CLOSED
Just a reminder for those outside the region, Wellington is on holiday on Monday, their Anniversary Day.
HARD TO SEE IT AS TEMPORARY NOW
Japanese inflation hit a 41-year high in December, up +4% and above their central bank 2% target for a ninth straight month. It is up from +3.7% in November, the sharpest rise since 1981. Prices of electricity increased +21%, while grains rose +9.6%. Last year the overall level was up +2.3%, so a rising pace. "Core inflation" which excludes food, was also up +4.0%. The rise from November to December was at an annualised +3.5% rate, so perhaps there is some moderation coming.
UNCHANGED AGAIN
The Chinese central bank reviewed its loan benchmarks today and left them unchanged. This wasn't a surprise and is the fifth straight month they have been untouched. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), which is used for corporate and household loans, was held at 3.65%; while the five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, was held at 4.30%. Lower mortgage rates are not inducing more house sales in their struggling housing markets, so a change would make no difference.
THE CHINESE TRAVEL BUG RETURNS
The gigantic Chinese New Year (Year of the Rabbit) travel event is starting, which will see more than 900 mln people move around internally and externally, probably extending Covid to every corner of their country. Some 2.1 bln trips are expected to take place during the 40-day Spring Festival period, double the number of treks from last year.
TREAT YOURSELF
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SWAP RATES RECOVER SOME
Wholesale swap rates were likely higher today after yesterday's sharpish retreat. The real action comes near the close however. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +2 bps at 4.83%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.39% and little-changed from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.95% and unchanged. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.02% and up a mere +1 bp, and still above the earlier RBNZ fix for the NZGB 10 year which is unchanged at the lower 3.99% level. The UST 10 year is up +3 bps to 3.40%. We should also note that negative yields have returned for Japanese 1yr and 2yr Govt bonds.
EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
The S&P500 ended its Thursday session on Wall Street down -0.8%, and is down a net -2.5% so far this week. Tokyo has opened flat today and heading for a +2.2% weekly rise. Hong Kong has opened its Friday session up +1.1% pushing its weekly change to +0.4%. Shanghai is up +0.3% at its open and heading for a +1.6% weekly rise. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade and heading for a +1.7% gain. The NZX50 is up +1.1% today in late trade and heading for a +2.2% weekly rise and among the best of the equity markets we follow.
GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up sharply, now at US$1930/oz and up +US$29 from this time yesterday.
NZD SLIPS MARGINALLY
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed than this time yesterday, now at 64.2 USc. But against the AUD we are -½c lower at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -½c at 59.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is now at 71.2 and down just -10 bps since yesterday.
BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is up +1.7% from this time yesterday at US$21,030. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.3%.
QUOTES PLEASE
We are still keen to get suggestions from readers for additions to our "quotation" database. We have added about 50 in the past week (to 150), but we need many more. Either email me, or pop them into the Comment stream below. Thank you to everyone who have already responded.
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