A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; ASB mortgage rates invert; SBS Bank offers 6% for a TD, credit card demand up, Laybuy retreats, swaps hold, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB changed home loan rates today, some up some down, and reintroducing an inverted rate curve. More here.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
China Construction Bank raised TD rates today. Gold Bank Finance did too. But SBS Bank has raised its 1 year TD rate to ... 6%. This is the first time we have had any bank offer 6% since November 2008.

CREDIT CARD APPETITE UP, HOME LENDING DOWN
Equifax is reporting that mortgage demand continues to be down on both 2020 and 2021 volumes, with a -27% drop in the December quarter year-on-year, representing a continued softening in home lending appetite. However, enquiries for unsecured credit are up +4.2% year-on-year for the December quarter as a result of increases in credit card demand.

UPDATED I
Petrol prices monitored MBIE are now updated in our charts, here.

UPDATED II
Regular users of our livestock prices and charting services should know they are back updated after the holidays - and recording step-down levels from the lower levels we left them in mid December. For easy reference, M2 Bull, P2 Steer, Saleyard Prime Steer, and Y Lamb.

WELLINGTON ANNIVERSARY DAY
In case you overlooked it, it is a public holiday in the Wellington region and the lower half of the North Island.

LAYBY LAID-LOW?
Takapuna-based, but ASX-listed, buy-now-pay later company Laybuy has put its shares into a trading halt in Australia, pending release of an announcement "in relation to an application to be removed from the official list of ASX". The company indicated the announcement would be made before Wednesday (January 25). The Laybuy shares last traded at just 6 AUc a share, down from 20.5 AUc a year ago and down from AU$1.42 in January 2021. Laybuy says it's on track to achieve operating profitability by March 2023. It made an operating (EBITDA) loss for the six months to September 2022 of -NZ$13.9 million, "an improvement of 35.2% on the year prior", while losses after tax were -NZ$14.9 million, "an improvement of 34%". All up, Laybuy has built accumulated losses of -NZ$128.5 million through to September 2022.

KEEPING ON TOP OF THE CHALLENGES
For fund managers struggling with doing the right thing around ESG issues that are under attack from external politics and internal greenwashing, ResearchIP has a couple of useful links (CFA and Lazard) in their new RIPPL Sluice briefing sheet. Fund managers are under pressure on all fronts to deliver better returns for their investors, and SuperRatings shows this hasn't been a good outcome recently. Will ESG standards be a casualty?

NOT TAKING THE FOOT OFF
In an interview in Holland, an ECB member said the central bank will raise rates by +50 bps in both February and March and will continue to raise them further in the months after because "it's clear we are not there yet". The current ECB rate is 2.50%. This comes as some in the US reckon the US Fed will tone down its rate-hiking path.

SWAP RATES HOLD BUT SIGNALS FIRM
Wholesale swap rates were likely little-changed today. The real action comes near the close however. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +4 bps at 4.87%. That is now +62 bps above the OCR. (Recall, back just before the November +75 bps OCR hike, the 90 day bank bill rate was +82 bps above the prior OCR. A month before that last review, the 90 day bank bill rate was +63 bps up. The next OCR review is on February 23, 2023, also a month away.) The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.46% and up +7 bps from this time Friday. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.96% and little-changed. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.10% and up +5 bps, and still above the earlier RBNZ fix for the NZGB 10 year which is up +6 bps at 4.05%. The UST 10 year is up +7 bps to 3.47%. We should also note that negative yields have returned for Japanese 1yr and 2yr Govt bonds.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 has opened its account this week with a -0.5% fall in late trade. The ASX200 is flat in early afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened with a strong +1.2% gain, on top of last week's good +1.7% gain. Hong Kong is closed until Thursday and Shanghai is closed for the full week. In advance of Wall Street, the S&P500 futures are trading with a +0.3% gain indication.

GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is up slightly, now at US$1933/oz and a +US$7 rise from this morning's open.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar has risen +½c to 65 USc during the day from this morning. Against the Aussie we are now at 92.9 AUc and very marginally lower. Against ath euro we are at 59.6 euro cents and unchanged. That all means our TWI-5 is still at 71.8 and still touching its 2023 high.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is down marginally from where we opened this morning, now at US$22,765. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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