Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank reduced its 2 year fixed rate to 5.99%, and that is notable because all their home loan rates are now below 6% (including their floating rate).
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None today here either. But we are expecting at least one big bank to make changes tomorrow.
NO LET-UP AS INFLATION PLATEAUS HIGH
The big story today was the Q4-2022 consumer price inflation data, which basically came in unchanged from Q3, at 7.2%. Non-tradable inflation is running at 6.5%. Bank analysts saw signs that inflation may have peaked and all said so loudly, pushing the narrative that the RBNZ should ease off their indicated +75 bps February hike. Banks don't enjoy the adjustment of a slower economy that high interest rates are inducing especially in the housing market. But in fact this data reveals inflation way higher than the RBNZ policy target, and with little actual concrete evidence it will retreat to that level any time soon. Remember, food price inflation ran at 10.7% in the quarter. Having said all that, financial markets are betting rates will ease from here. (See below.)
CREDIT CARD USE WEAKER
Credit card spending in December was weak. In fact it came in fractionally below the December 2021 levels, so a 'real' fall. For all of 2022, this spending rose +7.2%. So the December levels are a fast falling away.
CREDIT CARD BALANCES UP
But credit card balances are rising and were up +3.1% from year ago levels. This is the third straight month they rose after a longish string of declines (in 34 or the past 36 months). Still, only 51.8% of all balances incur interest which is near its record all-time low. You do have to wonder how long that can last.
MORE FX FIREPOWER
The Reserve Bank and Finance Minister have agreed a new framework for managing foreign reserves, which will include the RBNZ holding more cash offshore - but it's not saying how much more.
SCAM ALERT
The FMA advises they are concerned that Magnitude Financial Group is operating a scam via their websites magnitudefinancialgroup.co.nz and magnitudefinancial-nz.co. They point out they are not a registered financial service provider in New Zealand and therefore not permitted to provide financial services to New Zealand residents. A check of their domain name registration points to an Eastern European owner.
NOT THE SHIFTS YOU MIGHT EXPECT
The latest Roy Morgan political poll for New Zealand has Labour at 27.5% (up +2% from the November poll), National at 35% (down -4%), the Greens at 11% (down -2%) and ACT at 14.5% (up +3.5%). 12% of those polled mentioned other parties (down from 12.5%). This polling was done before the Ardern resignation.
NO RELIEF IN AUSTRALIA
In Australia, their CPI rose +7.8% in the year to December. That was above market expectations and its highest since 1990. The most significant price rises were domestic travel and accommodation (+13.3%), electricity (+8.6%), international travel and accommodation (+7.6%). Food prices rose +9.2% there. The RBA next reviews its cash rate target on Tuesday, February 7, 2023. It is more likely to be a substantial rise now - and that in turn may affect the RBNZ thinking for its February 23, 2023 MPS review.
AUSSIE NEW HOME MARKET VERY WEAK
In Australia, their new home market is retreating faster. Sales of new homes fell by -4.6% in December leaving sales in the final quarter of 2022 a remarkable -42% lower than at the same time in 2021. Anecdotal data in New Zealand suggests a similar pattern is developing here in 2023.
SWAP RATES FALL LESS THAN EXPECTED
Wholesale swap rates likely slipped today after the CPI data but probably not be anything significant. Early indicators suggested a chunky fall, but later ones not so much. The real action comes near the close however. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +2 bps at 4.90%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.45% and down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.96% and unchanged of course. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.11% and down -3 bps, and still above the earlier RBNZ fix for the NZGB 10 year which is down -5 bps at 4.04%. The UST 10 year is down -6 bps to 3.45%.
EQUITIES UNREMARKABLE
The NZX50 is heading for a +0.3% gain today, and most of that came after the CPI data was released. The ASX200 is down -0.2%, undermined by their high CPI news. Tokyo has opened little-changed. Hong Kong and Shanghai are closed still of course. The S&P500 ended on Wall Street earlier essentially unchanged too.
GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is firm, now at US$1938/oz and up +US$5 from this time yesterday.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar has slipped marginally to 64.8 USc from a day ago, moving remarkably little after the CPI data release. Against the Aussie we are now down more than -¾c to 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 59.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is still at 71.6 and just marginally lower.
BITCOIN SLIPS
The bitcoin price is down marginally from this time yesterday, now at US$22,535 and -1.9% lower with most of that fall coming since 11am NZT. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.5%.
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