What happened Thursday

Business / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; Barfoots suffers, building consents rise, HLPI vs the CPI, Westpac offers grants, strong demand for NZGBs, swaps fall, NZD rises, & more

2nd Feb 23, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ and BNZ both changed fixed rates, some up, some down. More here.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ANZ raised many of its TD rates today. The Cooperative Bank raise some short rates.

BUYERS HOLD BACK
Barfoot & Thompson have reported a very slow start to the year as sales volumes and prices tumbled in January. They say their median selling price has now fallen by -$240,000 from its November 2021 peak, a -19.4% fall. (CPI inflation in those 15 months was +8.1%.) New listings also dropped sharply in December, even though existing listing levels remained high.

BUILDERS DON'T
Building consents issued in Canterbury surged in 2022, rising by +1184 more than in 2021. That eclipsed the rise in the Auckland region which was up by +772 on the same basis. All up, 8898 dwellings were consented in Canterbury in 2022, compared with 21,301 in Auckland. Canterbury and Auckland account for more than 60% of all 2022 building consents issued. There was a significant tailing off in Auckland in December with -25% fewer consents than the same month a year ago. But there was no tailing off in consents issued in the month in Canterbury. At the same time, dwellings being consented got smaller, with floor areas falling on average by -10% as there was a shift from full houses to smaller townhouses.

HLPI EXPLAINS THE CPI
According to Stats NZ's latest household living-costs price indexes (HLPI), household mortgage interest costs soared by +45% in the year to December 2022, helping push up the living costs for Kiwi households by +8.2%. A major difference between the HLPIs and the CPI is that the CPI includes the cost of building a new house (which rose 14% in the year to December), while the HLPIs instead includes mortgage interest payments.

OFF THE TOP SPOT
New Zealand is ranked second equal with Finland in the latest Corruption Perceptions Index, Denmark is now clearly at the top of the ranking. New Zealand’s score dropped one point to 87 while Denmark improved by 2 points scoring 90. New Zealand’s score is affected by a gradual decline in its score on three of the eight component indexes that contribute to its ranking. These three indexes all survey business leaders – international and domestic - about their experience with public service corruption.

BANK OFFERS CASH GRANT FOR FLOOD VICTIM CUSTOMERS
Westpac has launched a $1 mln fund to help its small business customers impacted by the floods in the upper North Island. Small business customers who meet their eligibility criteria can apply for a $2,500 cash grant to help with urgent expenses or repairs.

STRONG DEMAND FOR NZGBs
There were three NZ Government Bond tenders today for $400 mln on offer in total. 119 bids were received involving $1.2 bln, leaving $800 mln unsatisfied. 35 bidders offered $495 mln for the $200 mln May 2028 bond and 17 won something at an average of 3.94% which was the same as the yield two weeks ago for this same bond. There were 61 bids for the $150 mln on offer for the April 2023 bond and 19 won something at 4.09%, which was marginally higher than the 4.05% yield two weeks ago. But the most popular offer was the $50 mln April 2037 bond which attracted 23 bids and $231 mln and more than 4x oversubscribed. The seven winners got that at 4.29%, well up from the 4.18% two weeks ago.

AUSSIE REBOUND
In Australia, their building consent levels rebounded very strongly in December ending a period where they languished. Bouncing back most strongly were approvals for new apartments, surging by more than +50%. However, despite this December jump, Q4-2022 consent levels are still lower than Q4-2021.

MOVED ON FROM COLONIAL RELIC
And the Australian central bank has decided to dump the head of a British monarch from their currency banknotes. What took them so long? Lets hope we do the same soon. It's cringe to have foreigners on such sovereign paper, especially a family as disfunctional as that one.

SWAP RATES FALL SHARPLY
Wholesale swap rates likely retreated today with chunky retreats across the curve all driven from the US Fed's positions. The real action comes near the close however. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +2 bps at 4.91%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.51% and down -4 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.95%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.12% and down -7 bps, and now just below the earlier RBNZ fix at 4.13% which was up +3 bps. The UST 10 year dropped back -11 bps on the Powell press conference remarks to 3.41%.

ALMOST ALL EQUITIES RISE
The press conference remarks after the US Fed rate hike changed the market mood. Wall Street rose almost +1.1% after being lower prior to the presser. Tokyo has opened up +0.3%. Hong Kong has opened up +0.6%. However Shanghai has opened down -0.3%. The ASX is up +0.3% in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 is up +0.4% in late Thursday trade.

GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up sharply from this time yesterday at US$1953/oz and a +US$28 gain, almost all currency-related.

NZD FIRMS FROM SINKING USD
The Kiwi dollar is at 65.2 USc, and up almost +1c from this time yesterday after the hawkish press conference from Powell as the USD sank. Against the Aussie we are still down at 91.2 AUc, and unchanged. Against the euro we are also still down at 59.2 euro cents and also unchanged. The TWI is now at 71.6 and +30 bps higher in a day and all on the USD.

BITCOIN RISES SHARPLY
The bitcoin price has risen sharply today, up almost +US$1,000 from this time yesterday to US$24,064 or +4.3%. Volatility has been high at +/- 3.2%. Fed boss Powell's mention that "the disinflationary process has started" affected this market too.

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

Select chart tabs

Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

117 Comments

by JohnfromtheTron | 2nd Feb 23, 4:05pm 1675307101

ANZ also lowered the 2-5 year TD rates

by Justa comment | 2nd Feb 23, 5:10pm 1675311052

Yes they have bailed out of the 5yr big time. Will be interesting to see how high the 1 yr ends up, 5,5% still on the cards for the big banks.

by bw | 2nd Feb 23, 4:09pm 1675307391

"IMF urges Australia to restrict tax breaks for the family home...That’s a very costly tax exemption and benefits disproportionately the wealthy households"

If the IMF suggests CGT on even the family home, I shudder to think what they think of our property taxation mess.

by solardb | 2nd Feb 23, 4:15pm 1675307707

It would be good to know details of the Australian GCT.

by solardb | 2nd Feb 23, 5:22pm 1675311741

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/au/investing/capital-gains-tax/

by Foxglove. | 2nd Feb 23, 4:21pm 1675308090

Whether they liked it, wanted it, or not hundreds of thousands of NZ household have sky rocketed in value, simply by living normally in their family home. Those $ billions must be very tempting for the Greens at least? Last election time it was the fairly naive, brazen and blunt tool wealth tax for which the catchment has now of course hugely increased. Await their new manifesto with interest.

by bw | 2nd Feb 23, 4:33pm 1675308835

I would assume that any CGT here could be based on the next transaction after implementation or CV, whichever is the lower, adjusted (as it is in Aussie) for inflation.

eg: Sell a property today with a CV of $950k for $850k and CGT is calculated in the future based off $850k. On the other hand, sell it for $1,000k and anything over $950k is CGT assessable at the next sale.

Not perfect, but a starting point. (If the CV is seen as 'too low', then a review can be asked for at the time of implementation of the CGT regime, and more rates paid as a result!)

by Justa comment | 2nd Feb 23, 5:14pm 1675311293

Yes the IMF watching to see if the NZ and AU housing markets are going to go back to their old ways later this year or next. All depends on what National want for NZ (especially those under 25) for the future. The debate later this year will be interesting after policies are announced.

by Justa comment | 2nd Feb 23, 5:19pm 1675311561

As an aside, Wayne Brown will be realizing about now the reality that Auckland really needs 10% rate rises for each of the next 10 years. OK, they will sell the old Manukau Councils airport shares this year to kick the can down the road for another couple of years, but when theres nothing left to sell he wont be able to keep rate rises below 5%.

by Roger the dodger | 2nd Feb 23, 7:03pm 1675317828

Not sure it will be his problem.

And 10% rate rises for 10 years will make Auckland about as busy as Temuka.

by Te Kooti | 2nd Feb 23, 5:53pm 1675313601

Hesus wept, are you really proposing taxing capital gains on primary residence? How does anyone relocate with work if they are unable to sell and buy a comparable house due to CGT? How about the RBNZ maintain th integrity of the NZ$ by raising rates, then we don't have to worry about it. Also, the IMF are about as credible as the WEF, ie to be ignored completely.

by lostinawoods | 2nd Feb 23, 5:57pm 1675313874

In most countries you have to either pay stamp duty or property tax when you sell or purchase the property. They somehow live with it.

by kiwikidsnz | 2nd Feb 23, 6:16pm 1675314972

That doesn't make it right - or logical, fair, justified...sensible....

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 6:27pm 1675315673

Or that much of a difference to home ownership rates.

It's all BS and Jellybeans unless you fundamentally resolve supply.

by Foxglove. | 2nd Feb 23, 7:00pm 1675317605

The NZ family home is sacrosanct. It is an inherent and vital feature of our civilisation here. To alter that status, to provide an income stream for the government, from whatever angle or form, would assail the very nature of our society. NZ governments have failed to sufficiently differentiate between household and other property ownership. Had they done so there might have been clearer and more effective controls on property speculators. That goes back to Norman Kirk’s much unappreciated Labour government that introduced the Property Speculation Tax. That worked sufficiently well for Muldoon to keep it intact until into his second term and then met its fate at the hands of all the industry lobbyists of that time.

by Te Kooti | 2nd Feb 23, 7:58pm 1675321083

That is as cogent and well-reasoned a reply as you will ever find on this site Foxglove, well said. Where would the money go anyway, to pay hedge funds to grow more pine trees here?

by Rob Reid | 2nd Feb 23, 9:59pm 1675328369

"The NZ family home is sacrosanct. It is an inherent and vital feature of our civilisation here."

I'd say the basis of our civilisation is bidding up prices for shelter then relying on the govt/banks to transfer wealth to us to make the sacrifice worthwhile.

As the govt slowly goes broke it will reluctantly go after all the wealth that is left - the equity in those expensive, sacrosanct little temples of civilisation. Oh well.

by lostinawoods | 3rd Feb 23, 4:03am 1675350220

Lol. Glad to hear that old kiwi exceptionalism is still alive.

by Foxglove. | 2nd Feb 23, 6:06pm 1675314374

TK salvo! Bravo!

by kiwikidsnz | 2nd Feb 23, 6:17pm 1675315061

Spot on, I agree with everything you've said (a first ;)).

Bottom line is its still the same house with the same market value compared with others. Money is simply the medium of exchange & its relative price in $ irrelevant & set by factors outside the homeowners control.

by Justa comment | 2nd Feb 23, 6:34pm 1675316075

yeah NOT on the family home for sure.

by rastus1 | 2nd Feb 23, 7:17pm 1675318654

Asset tax on very asset. Why should you home be exempt when the renters savings aren’t?

by HSL | 2nd Feb 23, 7:57pm 1675321028

Happy to pay capital gains on my house, but be able to claim r&m, depreciation etc. only problem is, the socialists won’t allow that…just another tax grab.

by Te Kooti | 2nd Feb 23, 7:59pm 1675321181

I believe certain US States CG tax primary residence but also allow interest rate deductibility on the mortgage.

by rastus1 | 2nd Feb 23, 7:16pm 1675318569

It’s a bs tax. Every other house goes up by same % - so can’t buy like with like as tax man has just lopped off a hunk.

by Carlos67 | 2nd Feb 23, 4:14pm 1675307656

Not sure how you can have a "Corruption perceptions index", I mean take JA for example the perception overseas was she was the bees knees but here in NZ the perception was entirely different leading her to quit. Overall corruption is pretty low here but at the same time you wouldn't want it to be any worse.

by solardb | 2nd Feb 23, 4:17pm 1675307861

I don't think they asked Brazilians for their perception of the government in NZ. Presumably , it is based on the opinion of NZ business ????

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 4:23pm 1675308208

How about cronyism? I reckon NZ has a lot of that, as opposed to out and out corruption.

by J.C. | 2nd Feb 23, 4:41pm 1675309307

How about cronyism? I reckon NZ has a lot of that, as opposed to out and out corruption.

See my comment below HM

by Baywatch | 2nd Feb 23, 5:22pm 1675311740

Trying to understand your comment - your saying Jacinda is viewed as corrupt, is corrupt, and was pressured to quit due to this?

Good day for Bitcoin Carlos, ..must me those thieves and drug dealers buying up large ah?

by kiwikidsnz | 2nd Feb 23, 5:08pm 1675310928

Coincidentally the complacent perception of NZ corruption is being discussed elsewhere today.

https://democracyproject.nz/2023/02/02/bryce-edwards-3/

"New Zealand is the second least corrupt country on earth according to the latest Corruption Perception Index published yesterday by Transparency International. But how much does this reflect reality?"

by profile | 2nd Feb 23, 6:04pm 1675314284

"...But the huge problem with this Taranaki stadium job is that in pitching Mrs Stokes and Ms Paterson, Mr Robertson somehow failed to mention (we’ve seen the emails) both women already had some big jobs, just down the road with the Hamilton City Council.

We're not talking part-time jobs either. Ms Paterson, at the exact time of the stadium contracts being signed (October 2019), was already the full-time parks manager for the Hamilton City Council – on $25,000 a month. She and Mrs Stokes were also being paid an additional $150,000 to review the same Hamilton parks department."

https://crux.org.nz/crux-news/inside-the-cashed-up-world-of-the-queenst…

by Beanie | 2nd Feb 23, 7:27pm 1675319230

If there is any justice people will be going to jail and others losing their jobs over this.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 7:41pm 1675320085

I would like to say something but I will refrain as it’s borderline defamatory.

by nigelh | 2nd Feb 23, 9:59pm 1675328399

Wow. Didn't know the shenanigans extended to NP.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 4:20pm 1675308011

Well it took a few more months than I expected, but finally we see a big drop off in building consents in Auckland. 25% is pretty significant.

by Befuddled | 2nd Feb 23, 4:31pm 1675308711

I'm at the front end of it and really saw this happening October last year, but it was slowing down a few months before this (when the fone went from white hot to burning red, then cooled completely).

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 5:16pm 1675311366

Exactly.

I have been a broken record on it, mainly because there’s been hardly any discussion of it from all the ivory tower economists.

Yet, the slump in residential construction is going to bring the economy to its knees.

Go figure………..

by nktokyo | 2nd Feb 23, 5:29pm 1675312188

It was telegraphed months ago when sales off the plans went through the floor.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 7:03pm 1675317805

Yes. But where was it being written about?

Almost nowhere.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 7:26pm 1675319170

Know what's also rarely reported in the press?

Most things. There's only ever a small handful of storylines losely based on what's going on I'm the world.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 7:42pm 1675320150

Well that’s poor. And I have been disappointed that this website hasn’t really dug into it much.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 8:34pm 1675323260

What, how few new houses aren't getting commissioned? Where would this data come from? It's not like these companies want to share that in the coming months their businesses are going to suck a kumara.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 9:51pm 1675327880

Wouldn’t take much journalistic digging to be honest.

You don’t think a looming development sector collapse is worthy of some investigation? Even putting aside the economic impacts, it could generate significant social issues.

Do we only do post hoc journalism now? Stories only once the ambulance has fallen off the cliff or is in the final stages before descent?

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 9:56pm 1675328165

You could dig, but what is your article going to say. "Un-namable house builder claims no houses sold for months?". So then you cast aspersions over every company, no matter how perilous or not their position is?

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 10:20pm 1675329631

Just talk to a few people in the sector, including architects etc

There’s been several business confidence reports now with abysmal confidence readings in residential construction. It’s pretty clear that trouble has been brewing.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 10:33pm 1675330416

Hmmm ok, but only if we can have a photo of someone in the article with their arms crossed, looking sad.

by Befuddled | 2nd Feb 23, 6:04pm 1675314269

Auckland disaster to the rescue...

by nktokyo | 2nd Feb 23, 6:54pm 1675317281

Not really

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 7:04pm 1675317845

Only a short term boost for tradies

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 7:26pm 1675319214

Years is a decent amount of time.

It'll be a fair while till the majority of remedial work is even underway.

by nz-it-worker | 2nd Feb 23, 4:25pm 1675308346

Property grab: AFP smashes alleged $10 billion Chinese money-laundering operation

The AFP operation, and the fact that the organisation targeted is just one of several large money-laundering syndicates operating in Australia, will raise fresh questions about the role of foreign funds in inflating the nation’s property market and other legislative and policy gaps in the financial and migration systems that continue to be exploited by criminals.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/property-grab-afp-smashes-alleged-10-billion-chinese-money-laundering-operation-20230201-p5ch7k.html

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 4:32pm 1675308721

Oh I bet there’s plenty more of it in NZ too than we are aware of.

by J.C. | 2nd Feb 23, 4:43pm 1675309419

Oh I bet there’s plenty more of it in NZ too than we are aware of.

100%. There is a limit to how much Chinese can take out of the country. AFAIK, USD50K equivalent.

by J.C. | 2nd Feb 23, 4:39pm 1675309199

New Zealand is ranked second equal with Finland in the latest Corruption Perceptions Index,...These three indexes all survey business leaders – international and domestic - about their experience with public service corruption.

The idea that NZ is holier than thou when it comes to corruption is nonsense. First of all, you have to define what corruption is. And it's always the vested interests in Western countries that define this for their own purposes. The reality is that 'institutional corruption' in NZ is as bad as anywhere. And it's subjective. There are two books from Aussie 'Game of Mates' and 'Rigged' that I haven't read but want to. The issues in Aussie are more or less the same in NZ.

Every hour you work, thirty minutes of it goes to line the Mates’ pockets rather than your own. Mates in big corporations, industry groups, government departments, the halls of parliament and the media skew the system to suit each other. Corporations dodge taxes, so you pay more. You pay more for your house and higher interest rates on your mortgage, more for your medicines and transport, and more for your children’s education and insurance, because the Mates take a cut.

Rigged uncovers the pattern of political favours, grey gifts and information sharing that has been allowed to build up over two decades. Drawing on extensive economic research, it exposes the Game of Mates as nothing less than cronyism on a grand scale across Australia, and how Australia has fallen behind other countries in combatting it.

https://gameofmates.com/

by Foxglove. | 2nd Feb 23, 4:49pm 1675309785

Corruption is only applicable to those that get exposed. And even then, what about it if for instance, you refer back to the wine box saga that more or less disappeared up its own vortex.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 5:19pm 1675311576

Exactly. That looks a great read, with content very applicable to NZ.

This kind of matey cronyism is really dangerous. I see an awful lot of bad advice given and taken between ‘mates’.

by J.C. | 2nd Feb 23, 5:39pm 1675312750

This kind of matey cronyism is really dangerous.

And it's not seen as 'corruption' because it's institutionally legitimized. We can then move to KPMG, PwC, McKinsey, and the other ex-Gliding On people who have started their own consultancies.

by Poission51 | 2nd Feb 23, 4:43pm 1675309431

the update on the Adani saga is they pulled out of the 2.5B$ IPO,After Forbes shirt fronted the Adani group for buying shares in the IPO,as it was undersubscribed after allegation by Hindenberg of over leveraging and the purchasing of Shares in other IPO'S by related parties.

by J.C. | 2nd Feb 23, 4:53pm 1675310031

This is a cluster-duck of epic proportions. If you want to see how far cronyism, corruption, and fraud can go, the Adani sitn is all you need.

by nktokyo | 2nd Feb 23, 5:28pm 1675312129

The shift in attitude from the Fed was huge news.

by Justa comment | 2nd Feb 23, 5:35pm 1675312519

Interestingly the NZGBs for 2037 still went for 4.29%. The future and inflation is still very unclear in NZ it seems.

by Rob Reid | 2nd Feb 23, 9:19pm 1675325996

But the markets didn't shift their view that the Fed will totally pivot at any moment. Get ready to collect free money, everything is fine.

by HW2 | 2nd Feb 23, 5:52pm 1675313547

Boy Chuppie is 1000 times better than the last PM. A decent average guy, and not pulling stupid childish faces all the time. He was on prime news moving furniture and giving sensible comments. As opposed to ardern wrapping bear hugs around everyone and commiserating

If the UN offer her a job they better be careful.

Misogynist is a whitewash excuse.

by Zachary Smith | 2nd Feb 23, 6:39pm 1675316356

Thank goodness this era is now passing.

by JimboJones | 2nd Feb 23, 6:52pm 1675317136

How many times better than Luxon is he? And does that mean Labour are back in the hunt?

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 7:07pm 1675318020

I think he’s better than Luxon. But not necessarily much better.

But I want to see much more on policy and delivery before I even think of Labour.

by JimboJones | 2nd Feb 23, 9:10pm 1675325416

I’d say Hipkins is probably the best politician going around at the moment. 2nd best would be Seymour, he’s very good at debating but doesn’t really have any good policies going himself. After that probably green MPs like Chloe and Shaw. I don’t mind Chris Bishop either. Anyway that is just my opinion.

by rolande | 2nd Feb 23, 9:29pm 1675326592

Seymour is too inconsistent. He appears libertarian on national issues, but he's conservative in Epsom e.g. Property and school zoning.

by Foxglove. | 2nd Feb 23, 7:10pm 1675318228

Luxon can only be Luxon. By now it is obvious, well to me at least, that he has about as much charisma as a boiled egg. But boiled eggs are hardly of an unknown quantity and can be trusted by most diets. On that basis my advice would be for him to continue with developing a sensible, solid and respected persona and leave the flamboyance to others better equipped. He won’t trouble Hipkins in the house anymore than he troubled Ardern but his bench, the next level, certainly will and even more so will Seymour of ACT who has already done so on numerous occasions.

by IT GUY | 2nd Feb 23, 10:21pm 1675329717

That does worry me as JA was a baby at debating.....

by HW2 | 2nd Feb 23, 9:46pm 1675327600

Chris Lucks-in has Labour on the ropes. His popularity contributed to arderns downfall

by Macawsley | 3rd Feb 23, 7:12am 1675361549

Luxon's popularity (let alone lack of credible policy) will continue to drag National down .

National's media arm NZME will not criticize Luxon until it becomes apparent he can't win - then it will be all on.

The push to install Willis will become irresistible .

by Baywatch | 3rd Feb 23, 7:47am 1675363646

A decent average guy, and not pulling stupid childish faces all the time - yet you come up with this clanger "Boy chuppie"?

by Zachary Smith | 2nd Feb 23, 6:35pm 1675316119

It's cringe to have foreigners on such sovereign paper,

I doubt anyone gives it much thought at all. Who uses paper money anyway?

by profile | 2nd Feb 23, 6:51pm 1675317078

"The size of New Zealand's informal economy is estimated to be 10% which represents approx $26 billion at GDP PPP levels"

https://www.worldeconomics.com/National-Statistics/Informal-Economy/New…

by Zachary Smith | 2nd Feb 23, 7:15pm 1675318548

So, the people least likely to feel any cringe factor.

by profile | 2nd Feb 23, 8:58pm 1675324684

Cash is freedom bro. I don't want a threesome in my transactions.

by Rob Reid | 2nd Feb 23, 9:16pm 1675325766

Can't see you being a fan of CBDCs then. Like a threesome where the government is always on top, no discussion allowed.

by Audaxes | 2nd Feb 23, 8:11pm 1675321860

STRONG DEMAND FOR NZGB

Noticeable, that the interpolated mid IR swap yield traded 4.14 bps below the weighted average accepted yield for the 2.75% 15/04/37 tender candidate note. Swap dealers are demanding a premium to engage balance sheet capacity this far out.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 7:50pm 1675320651

Sharesies - restructure and redundancies likely:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sharesies-announces-restructure-red…

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 8:36pm 1675323395

Online retail share trading.

Sounds a nightmare.

by IT GUY | 2nd Feb 23, 10:03pm 1675328619

I was a founding trader on Datek part of the Island ECN, full your boots for $1000 usd a month... and we did, you could be on the actual bid and offer on nasdaq at the same time..... I was sitting on a backup 155mb wan link and my trades would go through in the us and it took 1.5 seconds before they appeared in the uk on Reuters.... back then it was 1/8 spread on CSCO or ORCL and you just played MM all day for 1k shares each way 1/8 was about $125 usd.... we would do hundreds of trades a day, human HFT

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 10:08pm 1675328897

Now you're making me try to remember the film where an investor pays some guys to design a network to do the same sort of thing but involving an algorithm as well as the time delay.

by IT GUY | 2nd Feb 23, 10:26pm 1675329978

it was a lot of fun.... i remember up days of 70k usd and worst down day 115k usd.... late finishes for the uk but most days a few k up and off to the dodgey late night venues clarkenwell rd..... browns for lunch earlier

by dumbthoughts | 2nd Feb 23, 8:52pm 1675324327

What did they expect was going to happen when they did away with their primary (only?) value proposition - making investing in shares cheaper.

If you suddenly make it a whole lot more expensive, and you've got no real competitive advantage any more versus other platforms, then having a cool and trendy interface and a Facebook group isn't going to save you (especially when everyone in the Facebook group has turned on you anyway).

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 9:07pm 1675325243

They had to raise their prices because their cheaper model would have been losing money.

So sounds like they raised their prices, and it's still not making money.

Shame, this is the highly productive enterprise the country is screaming for.

by IT GUY | 2nd Feb 23, 11:02pm 1675332160

SAXO and others where always a better value proposition.

by HW2 | 2nd Feb 23, 9:56pm 1675328161

WHAT THE FLIP ?? 27 new build houses to a single buyer. This would not have happened in 2022, confidence is growing.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/43003

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 9:57pm 1675328237

I suspect the buyer may regret that. Looks like a ridiculous price for what they are and where they are.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 9:59pm 1675328364

I think it only mentions the listing price, not the actual sales price.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 10:02pm 1675328523

Ok, yes maybe it was purchased for significantly lower.

by HW2 | 2nd Feb 23, 10:01pm 1675328477

I suspect you may regret your outlook 🤣

by IT GUY | 2nd Feb 23, 10:06pm 1675328782

can you officially call the bottom IN CAPITALS HW2 otherwise we will be listerning to this crap all year, please steak in ground I will do the same

2/2/23 THIS IS NOT THE BOTTOM

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 10:13pm 1675329182

He’s too much of a wuss to commit to anything tangible

by HW2 | 2nd Feb 23, 10:18pm 1675329505

According to you interest rates would have dropped by now. I won't be following your dumbo lead

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 10:22pm 1675329729

Gosh you are easy to trigger. I know you are worried, and are hiding behind the passive aggressive bravado.

by HW2 | 2nd Feb 23, 10:32pm 1675330322

Says the guy who calls me names. Reverting to ad hom youve lost already.

Its easy to give you raspberries back, for your lack of insight

Sleep tight

by HW2 | 2nd Feb 23, 10:21pm 1675329702

Good for you ITG. Whats your number for 2023

And you did not answer my question on the other thread, summer st etc

by IT GUY | 2nd Feb 23, 10:28pm 1675330114

sorry i go look and revert here been helping a guy on side of motorway with a blown tire on horsefloat

by IT GUY | 2nd Feb 23, 10:38pm 1675330715

it was on the wrong side of summer street, so sun on front, was a 3 dbl 1 single rm old villa. still got it for about 460 and it was cash flow pos with 10% down.... tenant died (long story) so moved in then went sailing in the pacific for a year off and while up there the gfc hit, got back and dumped it for about 800. Boomers have first world problems aye.... funny how being in the pacific with only SSB and Radio NZ on AM. personally i think you can have too much real time info... I actually think the reality is always staring you in the face, real time info is not that useful re property. its like a super tanker

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 10:31pm 1675330273

In all fairness the widespread tendency for many members on this site to try and "call it" is kinda irksome. All most people can do is try and establish where things will head and identify trends.

If anyone here had any reliable prowess in this realm, well then they probably wouldn't be on here.

by HW2 | 2nd Feb 23, 10:35pm 1675330539

You're the smartest guy here pa1nter imho

by IT GUY | 2nd Feb 23, 10:43pm 1675330984

I know a lot of smart poor people and a lot of rich dumb ones..... my partner tells me we could be a lot richer if i would just listen to her more, she is very good at seeing the bottoms, I excel at seeing the tops in property. I am also in charge of the finance.

by HW2 | 3rd Feb 23, 6:51am 1675360284

"IT GUY | 2nd Feb 23, 10:43pm

...my partner tells me we could be a lot richer if i would just listen to her more, she is very good at seeing the bottoms, I excel at seeing the tops in property. I am also in charge of the finance."

So your partner sees when the market hits rock bottom but you ignore her.

And whilst you're good at seeing the top of the market, you bought your 16ha across from the chicken farm in 2021. You cant have it both ways and blame your partner for that decision

Whats your partner saying now 🤣

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 9:58pm 1675328333

It'd be more interesting to know who the single buyer is.

Could be the council or government.

by HW2 | 2nd Feb 23, 10:02pm 1675328541

KO ??

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 10:12pm 1675329168

Maybe the only confidence is the knowledge more and more people are going to need social housing.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 10:02pm 1675328577

Yeah might be Kainga Ora potentially.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 10:01pm 1675328466

Just speaking to a mate who is returning to Sydney with his family in a few days. His parents’ place got quite damaged by the floods.

what he couldn’t understand is the lack of warnings issued as the storm approached. That surely enough weather data existed to suggest it was going to be a major event.

He said that in Sydney they would have been much more active on the warnings.

Any thoughts? His thoughts echoed mine, but maybe there is a good explanation?

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 10:11pm 1675329100

Weather predictions are still as reliable as flipping a coin.

I await the day when my phone beeps a warning every 30 seconds about whatever looming potential disaster is maybe going to take me out.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 23, 10:15pm 1675329350

Surely on the morning of that day they could have seen the big bloody thing coming towards Auckland?

I was working from home and recall it pouring down most of the day. I remember looking at the Herald at something like 2pm and there was bugger all about it.

I find it very odd.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 10:28pm 1675330111

They struggle to forecast rain occurring correctly at all.

I would have thought accurately forecasting the volume of rain was even harder again.

Im sure we will now get a disproportionately paranoid response mechanism, complete with colour coded gradient indicator.

by IT GUY | 2nd Feb 23, 10:49pm 1675331398

These rivers are not like old normal forecasting, normally the rain is focused around a narrow front but these things are nuts. Cannot remember these back in the 2000s while sailing, we used to be super focused on the squish zones between the High and the low as that could cause 90-120knot winds off the north island but these rivers of rain did not used to happen as much, neither did the warm sea temps driving then

by Pa1nter | 2nd Feb 23, 11:02pm 1675332134

People can reliably catch Snapper in my neck of the woods where previously you'd never see any. I too am also getting rain events that create surface flooding I've never experienced before, last year one of my bores blew it's stack given the huge amount of water in the aquifers.

So it may be the different weather environment makes forecasting even harder again because the models have changed so much.

by redcows1 | 3rd Feb 23, 6:46am 1675359965

Matata?

by IT GUY | 2nd Feb 23, 10:51pm 1675331480

Niwa had 126mm over the next 6 days for AKL at 9am on Friday..... but again you cannot really predict what these rivers will deliver..... the old models are based on quickly passing fronts