A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; some more retail rate changes, petrol cost up, commodity prices ease, livestock prices down, 90 day bank bill rate at 13yr high, swaps up, NZD recovers, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Co-operative Bank changed fixed rates (up short, down long). China Construction Bank (CCB) also changed rates in a similar manner.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
CCB also raised their term deposit rates, as did Finance Direct.

A SOFT START
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index eased -1.0% in the first month of 2023, extending the late 2022 falls. Movements were mixed. Meat, forestry and aluminium prices lifted, while dairy and horticulture prices eased. In local currency terms the index dropped -1.2%.

PETROL PRICE ANAYSIS
In late January, the petrol price monitoring (MBIE) showed a sharpish rise in the portion taken by the oil company importers/distributors (refining and distribution). It is now back above 80c/L. That compares with taxes (GST, excise, import) that are now at 99.7c/L Crude oil costs in NZ$ are little changed in the latest week compared to the prior week and are back to November 2022 levels after being lower than that in December and the first half of January.

PRICE TAKERS LOSE OUT
It is clear from current livestock schedule and saleyard prices that farmers will not be compensated this year for inflation. Almost all market prices are lower than those prevailing last year. You can check specific saleyard and processor schedule prices in the links in the RH menus here (desktop only). We get to know how the dairy industry is faring in tomorrow's updated dairy auction.

ANOTHER $½ BLN
ANZ New Zealand is looking to borrow up to $500 million through five-year bond issue that is unsecured, unsubordinated fixed rate bonds (and so ranks the same as deposits, savings or term deposits by the bank's retail customers). According to their last published Disclosure Statement as at September 30, 2022, ANZ NZ had $17.7 bln of unsubordinated debt which included $4.1 bln of Covered Bonds. (Note 14.) Retail depositors won't commit funds long term, but wholesale funders will.

EYES ON THE RBA
The Australian central bank releases its first 2023 cash rate target review for 2023 at 4:30pm NZT today. We will update this item if it is any different to the +25 bps rise to 3.35% that markets widely expect.

SWAP RATES TURN SHARPLY HIGHER
As fast as they fell last week, wholesale rates have risen to start this week. Wholesale swap rates likely jumped today with chunky rises across the curve all driven from international influences. The real action comes near the close however. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +6 bps at 4.95%. The last time they were this high was in January 2009. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.54% and little-changed from this morning. The China 10 year bond rate is also little-changed at 2.93%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.14% and up +18 bps in a substantial move higher, and now above the earlier RBNZ fix at 4.10% which was up +12 bps. The UST 10 year is now up at 3.63% as markets re-evaluate how the US Fed will see the strong US labour market data.

EQUITIY MARKETS MIXED & MUTED
The S&P500 ended down -0.6% on Wall Street at the end of its Monday trading. Tokyo has opened its Tuesday trading up +0.2%. Hong Kong has opened up +0.9%. Shanghai has opened up +0.2%. The ASX200 is little-changed in afternoon trade today. The NZX50 is down -0.4% in late trade.

GOLD STEADIES
In early Asian trade, gold is back up at US$1871/oz, up +US$4 from this morning.

NZD RECOVERS
The Kiwi dollar is at 63.2 USc, and up +½c from where we opened this morning. Against the Aussie we are still at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are a little lower at 58.9 euro cents. The TWI is now at 71.7 and up +40 bps during the day.

BITCOIN FALLS BACK SOME MORE
The bitcoin price has retreated further today, down -3.1% from this time Friday to US$22,837. Volatility has been modest however at +/- 1.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».