Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB cut fixed home loan rates for term longer than 1 year, but raised them for 1 year and less.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
UNEXPECTED & INTRIGUING
The BNZ-Seek Employment Report delivered a small +2% rise in January when another fall was expected along the lines that built in 2022. The rise was because of a +4% lift in Auckland. They noted: "it’s hard to conclude January’s jump as being significant. The national trend is still in decline. And it’s difficult to believe it will rev back up, when many of New Zealand’s leading economic indicators, including for the labour market now, are wavering. That said, January’s bounce in job ads does make it interesting to see what next months’ outcomes deliver."
UNEXPECTED BUT WOBBLY
ANZ's Truckometer monitor also delivered a [minor] surprise in January. The Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) lifted +0.8%. But overall ANZ says this activity data is just reverting to trend now, and some wobbly detail means you can't draw too many conclusions from this gain.
PONZI & PYRAMID WARNING
The FMA is warning about potential ponzi and pyramid activity currently underway in New Zealand. It has published a warning about a scheme that is seeking interest from NZ investors through webinars and events. We also reinforce this warning when people are considering attending events such as https://www.eventbrite.com/e/
A SMALL PREMIUM FOR BONDHOLDERS
ANZ confirmed that the interest rate for its offer of $500 mln five year unsecured unsubordinated fixed rate bonds has been set at 5.22%. That compares to the bank's 5 year term deposit offer of 5.00%. The bonds will be tradable on the NZX however, giving investors risk of loss if rates rise and gain if interest rates fall. But if investors hold either to maturity, the yield will be realised as indicated.
LIGHT DEMAND FOR THE 2027, HEAVY DEMAND FOR THE 2051
For the first time in a long time, a NZ Government Bond offer was not fully subscribed. The April 2027 $200 mln offer only attracted $188 mln in bids. All 28 bidders were awarded their offers. The average yield was 4.10%, up from the 4.02% for the last time this bond was offered two weeks ago. $150 mln was also offered for a new bond maturing May 2034 and that attracted $246 mln at 4.17% pa. The smaller $50 mln for the May 2051 was heavily bid attracting $148 mln in offers. It was all won by just one bidder who offered 4.24%, down from the average 4.32% two weeks ago.
A FASTER RECOVERY
Fitch Ratings has revised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2023 to +5.0%, from +4.1% previously, reflecting evidence that consumption and activity are recovering faster than initially anticipated after the authorities moved away from their “dynamic zero Covid-19” policy stance in late 2022.
UDC LEADERSHIP CHANGES
UDC chief executive Wayne Percival is stepping aside after more than seven years in the role. He will become a non-executive board member. During this time, UDC was acquired by SBI Shinsei Bank and the lending book rose from $2.3 bln to over $4 bln. Don Atkinson is the new CEO.
START PREPARING
Auckland Emergency Management has warned Aucklanders to prepare for Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle which may hit on Monday next week with more very severe rainfall and wind.
SWAP RATES STEEPEN
Wholesale swap rates likely rose again today but only at the short end. The real action comes near the close however. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 4.97%. (The last time they were this high was in January 2009.) The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.63% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 2.92%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.17% and down -1 bp, and still above the earlier RBNZ fix at 4.12% which was down -2 bps. The UST 10 year is now up at 3.61% down -6 bps.
EQUITY MARKETS MIXED YET AGAIN
The S&P500 ended down -1.1% on Wall Street at the end of its Wednesday trading as interest rate jitters came back into market thinking. Tokyo has opened its Thursday trading down -0.4%. Hong Kong isn't worried today and has opened up +0.6%. Shanghai has opened up +0.9%. The ASX200 is down -0.4% in afternoon trade today. The NZX50 is down a very minor -0.1% in late trade.
GOLD UNCHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$1877/oz, up just +US$1 from this time yesterday.
NZD FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is at 63.2 USc and again unchanged from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are +¼c firmer at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 58.9 euro cents. The TWI is now at 70.7 and back up +20 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price has slipped today, down -1.7% to $22,965. Volatility has been modest however at +/- 1.4%.
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84 Comments
NZX correlation with offshore markets is a lot less than say the ASX; however, overseas weakness or strength does follow here on our market. Predominantly the reason why NZX isn't as strong as we have a lot of utility companies like Mercury, Meridian, Spark etc that are a lot more stable as such and aren't affected by macro factors as much. Compared to ASX/US where a lot of companies are tech or mining etc they're driven completely by commodities, interest rates etc. (Not saying these don't move its just a bit less correlated that ASX).
Had an interesting chat with some other business owners about how much we have let the current government affect our mood. When you run your own thing, it's all on you and you're used to bringing your own energy. We all acknowledged that allowing outside influence to this degree is not a practical way to conduct oneself but I think the real surprise was that every single person there felt the same. I don't know if it's post-covid exhaustion or what. Anywho, just an observation for the collective.
Nothing wrong with a good old Labour beat up. Nor is there anything wrong with a good old National beat up either. Both are equally deserving of beatings in my book.
As a small business owner who spends his time in the company of other small-to-medium business owners, there are undoubtedly some who have let their blind hatred of Labour cloud their judgement.
I have a weekly coffee meeting with some ardent 'Two Ticks Blue' types. All nice guys, but it's tiring hearing that every problem is Jacinda's fault, or Chippy's fault, or that the Ghost of Khrushchev is in the box seat at the Beehive. They are also a bit "detached" insomuch that they are all well off; I am a peasant by comparison, and don't have the ability take two days off a week to play golf.
Equally, I break bread with some dyed-in-the-wool Labourites and lovey-dovey lefties, for whom any criticism of anything the government does is tantamount to heresy, and who would not understand the concept that tax revenue (that is redistributed to them via various avenues, e.g. generous civil servant salaries) comes from enabling productive enterprise, even if it struck them in the face with a baseball bat.
In both groups, I just keep my mouth shout and talk business only. There are more controllable aspects of life and business - I'll focus on those.
For what it's worth, I don't think Labour has negatively affected my business much. In fact, I've done better under Labour than I did under National (admittedly only under the tail end). However, on a personal level I feel worse off under Labour (some of this their fault, some of it not) and I don't like a lot of their social policy.
I think as a business owner you have to just take the political environment of the day on the chin and do your best with whomever is running the show. To do anything else is doing yourself a great disservice.
The exception/red line would be for me if you saw some of the more extreme anti-all business elements the further left parties come to fruition, in which case I am sure glad I have a business that needs a laptop, an Internet connection and nothing else.
I don't really hold any resentment for Labour, they don't really occupy much of my thoughts.
I have however come to a sort of fatal resignation that being an employer is a pretty marginal proposition. Every 6 staff usually requires one extra to oversee, if someone wants to slice a finger off you're liable, employment conditions are constantly changing, if someone's a basket case you can end up married to them.
I don't actually disagree with some regulation but the compliance costs are pretty crazy, in terms of impact into productivity.
I'm nearly fully retired now from a 45 career range of NZ SMEs & multinationals: while i almost always voted Labour it's highly likely the feeling is because of their unrelenting focus on grabbing & dividing the economic pie while make it as difficult as possible for those who have to create it in the first place.
There has only ever been a handful of Labour PMs who actually understood how the world works: Kirk & Moore in my voting lifetime (+Roger Douglas & Prebble for Cabinet completeness).
And I'm not saying that all National PMs understood it either.
I never mentioned business people. I just think there is a pretty good history of GDP growth under Labour, and part of that must be the redistribution of wealth. The rich can only spend so much at your business, if the government give some of that wealth to the poor then more will get spent overall.
In the last 2-3 years under Labour, NZs economy / GDP has been supported by $100B in additional borrowings (incl Covid support to businesses, the poor, education, tourism, journalists who agree with the Govts policies especially their ToW opinions, "special projects" such as the $50M cycleway study on Auckland Harbour bridge... the list is never ending. And it all = debt that someone has to pay back, ultimately dependent on efforts from private business enterprises.
Does it need to be paid back? Who needs the money back and why? Did the Government borrow $100b of NZD from China? Maybe that extra $100b will bring about a new normal, after prices/wages inflate in reaction to the stimulatory impact.
But then it'll all stagnate again as the money accumulates at the wealthy choke points. Like a car engine when the oil pick up line is blocked, the oil accumulates at the sump while the lifters and cylinders (parts that actually do work) go dry from lack of lubrication.
Heightist!
Actually the original post made two points: “grabbing & dividing the economic pie while make it as difficult as possible for those who have to create it in the first place.” I was just saying the first point was probably good for business. I didn’t mention the second. The right wing never try to do the first point.
I have met five PMs, Holland, Kirk, Muldoon, Lange & Moore. Each under entirely different circumstances. Quite honestly Mike Moore is the stand out by a country mile. Big, big heart for his country and countrymen (excuse the old terminology please.) If only NZ had had that same ideological honesty for the greater good from some of the others.
I bet if you met “Cindy” you would realise she does have a love for NZ as great as Moore. I know some people who have met her that say she was both very astute and very authentic. Her last year was not her best, maybe a bit like a cricketer who keeps playing after they have lost the passion.
There was a caption in the NZH not long after Ardern’s resignation which said something like “touch her, it’s like touching Jesus.” Regrettably that sort of fawning idolatry is as useless as it is pitiful. Some on here, but a lot more elsewhere, are never going to let it go are they. Seems to me that individuals that must have an identity on a pedestal to worship are under equipped to cope with reality.
Not at all house mouse, I just can’t help but respond to people who think Labour are some kind of evil when really they are pretty much the same as National. Labour are not my ideal party at all, pretty sure I voted green at the last election although I can’t actually remember. No party in NZ is anywhere near what I want.
While I don’t agree with everything Jacinda Ardern did, implying she was corrupt or incompetent or selfish is bullshit. She tried her best but the voters fell out of love with her, me included. I just don’t understand how people can’t see that the real corruption is at the right end of politics, the left are almost always trying to make things better (but are naive).
Do you honestly believe John Key was a better person, really loved NZ, tried his best to make it a better place?
Actually one of my favourite ex prime ministers is Jim Bulger. He never did anything for me when he was in power. But now he seems to be a good combination of the right and left: he knows that money is everything (the left often ignore this fact), but he also wants the best for NZ (and not his rich mates).
JJ. Mike Moore worked his way from a freezing works slaughterhouse to Prime Minister, to Chairman of the WTO and appointed by a National government to our ambassador in Washington. Ardern in comparison is an absolute lightweight, a naive student politician who will go down in NZ’s history as having a great ability for pathos but nothing more substantial than that. To attempt to equate her to Mike Moore is actually an insult not only to him, but all of us. You need to go and have another read of your junior woodchuck manual.
Anyone can be a decent person.
That said, there can also be a naive disconnect between having nice ideas and intentions, and walking the talk.
It's probably the housing that was the worst thing. Labour talked a huge game, realised too late how much more complicated and slow it is to get reform, and basically washed their hands of it. While having a political majority to do something about it.
Such an opportunity won't arise again for a while.
National isn't any better mind.
This does seem a little harsh.
Anyone who's had to wield even small amounts of responsibility can see the environment of 2020-22 was a pretty difficult one to make leadership decisions in.
While we did have the advantage of a decent moat, the government over that period made better decisions on average at speed than most other governments.
I think she’s a good person, and authentic, and was good in a crisis. She’s not highly intelligent but she’s sharp enough.
But she led a government that failed to deliver on so much policy, and she must bear a large chunk of the blame for that. Indeed, many of the decisions of her and her government made things like child poverty worse (law of unintended consequences).
And although a good communicator, I found her communication style increasingly irritating. To the point where in her last year or so at the helm, I turned the radio off every time she came on air.
Thanks for sharing nktokyo, know the feeling. Do surround yourself with positivity otherwise it's easy to miss upside opportunity. We don't hear enough on here from the SME owner/operaters. Some others have plenty of opinions haha. Takes guts to invest in your own business, make sure you give yourself a return for your risk!
The Federal Reserve has released a 31-page research report on the ol' rat posion. They conclude that BTC "shares most of the features of a store of value, such as gold", and “BTC is unresponsive to both monetary and macroeconomic news".
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr…
Buying gold requires me to source from a physical dealer at a huge premium and deal with storage costs and insurance.
I can buy bitcoin, wrap it, then provide liquidity to a decentralized exchange and earn a very substantial yield. I can do this using layer 2 solutions for ethereum so my transaction fees are pennies.
In fact, I can do this with tokenized gold too! (PAXG)
And I can sell a portion of it with the click of the button within seconds into any currency (or crypto asset) I want.
Well well. Here's how to lead a country. Wonder if they can deliver.
Singaporeans, now or in generations to come, will not have to worry about having an affordable home to call their own, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.
Giving this assurance in a Facebook post on Tuesday, PM Lee said the Government is working hard to ramp up the supply of flats, cool the resale market and keep Housing Board flats affordable and accessible to a wide range of Singaporeans.
“We are working hard at the problem, and are confident we will solve it,” he said.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/housing/singaporeans-will-not-ha…
Yeah it didn’t do much for me either.
It's a great place. Most Westerners barely get out of the tourist ghettos. Stay away from them. Stay in the gritty areas (Geylang is cool and off Little India towards the seedy part of the city). Explore the culture. Last time I was there I got to see a famous punk band from NYC at a live house at an industrial park.
You do know Singapore has the least human right treaty's compared to many developed countries. However it's extremely safe and they have HDB for their people.
It's not a liberal country. Things that I have seen and experienced. Protesters are only allowed only to go to a specific areas. (Which I agree).
There is the Asian manners attitude to elders and ancestors. Where in NZ it's common to blame everything under the sun on them.
Most of Asian culture values education. (I think it's extremely hard for the kids though). The education is not really geared to the arts or so called social sciences. Singapore is more practical in education. Top schools for the academics minds and practical schools for more hands on type of learning.
All the Men have to do national service.
The elderly without any savings have to work. Actually there isn't the same kind of welfare system at all.
You get caught smuggling drugs it's the death sentence. You commit crime and you are punished harder than western prisons. Less rights than NZ.
Singapore the law and Media focuses on Singapore citizens. They don't continue to focus on what race or sex you are. (Don't get me wrong there are people with prejudices).
The differences go on and on. Definitely not liberal.
If the country becomes more liberal, I think crime and poverty would increase. I'm fairly certain if new Zealanders were living in the size of Singapore, we would make it like a mad Max movie in a space of a month!
I saw some really good bands in Japan in the early to mid 90s, before the bands got really big. Suede and Garbage. More so Garbage in terms of not really breaking through at that stage as a major act. Me and about 150 others in a smallish venue in Nagoya.
It was quite funny seeing R.E.M. in Singapore in 94/95. Great concert, but the Singaporeans I was hanging with found Stipe’s queerness a bit hard to handle. Haha
Ahhh finally a question I have absolute confidence in answering.
Whilst it depends on what type of property office/industrial/retail and what location; yields in Auckland commercial and industrial are approx 6% at the moment.
This makes almost no sense whatsoever given commercial lending rates are almost 8% so I fully expect we will see property values drop to 7-7.5% range over 2023.
NB the banks will only lend 50% of the purchase price.
"Auckland Emergency Management has warned Aucklanders to prepare for Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle which may hit on Monday next week with more very severe rainfall and wind."
My meteorological prediction. A tropical storm with some heavy rain. Not a cyclone when it hits NZ.
It will be an ex tropical cyclone , once it leaves the tropics.Nothing to do with its power , just a meterological term. the key will be how much moisture it is carrying , and where it s path goes. The problem is a big high east of Nz stopping it from heading east .
but it could all change, though all 3 large forecasters are predicting the exact same path , which is unsusal , they usually have slight difference.
I recommend watching Philip Duncan' daily video forecasts at weatherwatch.co.nz , he is brilliant at explaining what is causing the weather , rather than just what is happening.
While I don't normally like linking to external sources, this is a decent watch outlying the potential fundamental change to money that a CBDC would bring about:
At the moment central banks and planning authorities have blunt tools and are working a lot in the dark.
We are already at a point where the government is popping bits of money in people's accounts and offering deductions off certain purchases, if you follow that through you can see there's a definite demand for a much more controllable money generation and distribution method.
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