What happened Thursday

Business / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; only minor retail rate changes today; a short forestry Inquiry, NZGB yields jump, swaps jump, NZD essentially unchanged, & more

23rd Feb 23, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today (although we did update Pepper Money rates).

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
General Finance raised rates today. Mutual Credit Finance did too. And Forsyth Barr raised their cash management rates as well, responding to the OCR.

CHECK BEFORE YOU BUY A USED CAR
Insurers are urging buyers to look for signs of water damage and to check Waka Kotahi’s written off vehicle register when buying a vehicle so they can make well informed decisions. Between 1 and 22 February, 524 vehicles were added to the register as write-offs with the water damage annotation.

PERVERSE INCENTIVES MAY OR MAY NOT BE INVESTIGATED
An eight-week Inquiry is about to start looking at land use that caused woody debris, including forestry slash, and sediment-related damage in Tairāwhiti/Gisborne and Wairoa during the recent series of Cyclones. No word however whether it will cause a re-think of the economic incentives the Government has given to convert livestock farms into pine forests so that we can all pay offshore 'investors' carbon credits - just so they don't have to cut back in their home markets (we are looking at you James Shaw and Ikea).

ANOTHER STEP COMPLETED IN SOPROLE SALE
Fonterra said it has received approval from the Chilean competition authority, one of a set of key pre-conditions for the sale of their Soprole dairy business to the local Gloria Foods. There are more pre-conditions that have to be worked through, but today's approval is a significant one.

THE NATIONAL COST OF VANITY
Some minor prep work has started (base sampling) for Auckland's boondoggle light-rail-to-the-airport project. It currently has a projected cost of between $15 bln and $30 bln for the preferred underground options, although a $9 bln "modest" above-ground remains on the table. It is a massive vanity project for the MPs electorates through which this service is projected to run (and is likely to set back national productivity significantly). Like the CRL and the Waterview Tunnel, both engineering marvels, these sort of grand statements deliver little for the extra cost they impose. The Waterview Tunnel could easily have been an above ground freeway extension. The CRL is a massive fixed rail project solving yesterday's issues. The world moved on, pretty much as many critics suggested it would. The benefits fall to a few, the costs to everyone..

TREBLING
Another major bank is making another 'big' increase in its support for flood-affected customers. Westpac initially gave $1 mln in $2,500 non-repayable cash grants to their small business customers affected by the late January flooding and Cyclone Gabrielle, and they have now increased the amount available to $3 mln. Another $1 mln is being given to local community organisations.

BIG GAINS
Meanwhile, Kiwibank has announced it has delivered a big increase in profits. A jump in net interest income has pushed their half-year profit to almost $100 mln, up +53%. (While this is big for Kiwibank, it is small beer compared to the big four Aussie banks).

INVESTORS GET +50 BPS IN 14 DAYS
Seventy-seven bids were received for the $400 mln NZ Govt bonds tendered today in three tranches. $807 mln was bid and 49 of them won something. The $200 mln April 2027 tranche went for 4.65% yield, up +55 bps from the same bond offer two weeks ago. The May 2034 tranche went for a yield of 4.67%, up +50 bps in two weeks. And the $50 mln May 2051 tranche went for a yield of 4.75%, up +51 bps in the same two weeks.

BRAZIL CONFIRMS MAD-COW OUTBREAK
We should note that the case of mad-cow disease in Brazil has been confirmed. Already, China has suspended imports. This may rock beef prices in the short-term.

SWAP RATES HIGHER AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are likely up quite a bit further for a second straight day, after the OCR implications sink in. But the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +5 bps to 5.08%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.90% and up a tad. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.94%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate however is now at 4.67% and up +13 bps and above the earlier RBNZ fix at 4.55% and up +6 bps. It looks like policy rates may be further away from the top than markets had been pricing and so there is some catchup underway. The UST 10 year is down -2 bps at 3.92% in a settling.

EQUITIES MIXED BUT NZX50 ON TOP
The S&P500 ended down -0.2% on Wall Street taking the two-day shift lower to -2.2%. Tokyo isn't trading today because it is a public holiday (Emperor' Birthday). Both Hong Kong and Shanghai have opened little-changed today. The ASX200 is down -0.3% so far in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 is up +0.5% in late trade today.

GOLD SLIPS FURTHER
In early Asian trade, gold is soft, now at US$1825 and down -US$13 from this time yesterday.

NZD UP SLIGHTLY AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this time yesterday at 62.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are +½c higher and now at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are firmer at 58.7 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at just over 70.3 and a +20 bps rise from yesterday.

BITCOIN SLIPS
Bitcoin has retreated again from yesterday to be now at US$24,164 which is a -1.0% fall. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.8%..

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

Select chart tabs

Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

95 Comments

by J.C. | 23rd Feb 23, 4:22pm 1677122560

Insurers are urging buyers to look for signs of water damage and to check Waka Kotahi’s written off vehicle register when buying a vehicle so they can make well informed decisions.

Can't remember exactly when, late 90s or 00s, but there was flooding in Nagoya and whole fleets of water damaged European cars (primarily Mercs and BMWs) were exported as used cars. Think some washed up on NZ shores. Think the cars were owned by a Yakuza-related company.

by Foxglove. | 23rd Feb 23, 4:43pm 1677123808

Recall vehicles ex the Wahine in 1968 were salvaged and sold. Friends of friends got one, a Ford Zephyr I think, and it did them quite well too. Different cars on tap in those days. Commonwealth Trading Preference Scheme saw British makes dominant except for the ever growing favourite Holdens.

by Uninterested | 23rd Feb 23, 6:29pm 1677130145

There would have been something like 10% of the wiring compared to modern cars. And no electronics.

by Foxglove. | 23rd Feb 23, 6:50pm 1677131443

True, but on the other hand, there was a heck of a lot more on them that was rustable.

by Rob Reid | 23rd Feb 23, 7:35pm 1677134129

The Wahine storm. My late Godfather was an Upper Hutt car dealer in '68, and the story I got is that the cops roped in car dealers with 4wd vehicles to come down to the foreshore to help with rescue and recovery. He ended up dragging bodies out of the surf, and had nightmares for years.

My Dad was also a car dealer, in WN. He'd sold a car and needed to deliver it that day, so prepared with a few tricks like packing paper into the grill to reduce the slosh into the electrics, then made his delivery. Joked that it was probably the only car delivered in WN that day.

They were both from the north of England and knew a bit about shitty weather.

by JamesM | 23rd Feb 23, 4:23pm 1677122604

Heard from 2 people today that all DuVal’s sites have been shut down. Rumour is that the main funder out of Singapore has pulled the plug and contractors are owed $.

Anyone able to verify or refute?

by Officebound | 23rd Feb 23, 5:10pm 1677125435

Cant confirm or refute, but this was one of my interest.co.nz predictions for 2023 :)

by Officebound | 23rd Feb 23, 5:25pm 1677126350

Reading https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/property/du-val-converts-mortgage-fu… it sounds plausible that they've gone under, plenty of red flags.

by nktokyo | 23rd Feb 23, 6:03pm 1677128615

You can follow the journey on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/jkenyonclarke

by nigelh | 23rd Feb 23, 6:18pm 1677129495

Fire sale coming up?

by burgleman | 23rd Feb 23, 7:48pm 1677134928

Yep, heard the same thing. Scaffolders have walked away having not been paid.

Rumour is Safari group are not far behind and also have Singaporean funders behind them…..

by HouseMouse | 23rd Feb 23, 7:51pm 1677135114

Might recall I said a couple weeks back that a couple of mid sized players were about to go bust

by Retail shop | 23rd Feb 23, 9:54pm 1677142493

Madam house mouse sees all. Let me look at your tea 🍃 leaves.

by oscar87 | 23rd Feb 23, 8:51pm 1677138666

How is this going to play out for the wholesale / sophiscated investors who put $ into DV's '10% guaranteed return' fund?

by Rob Reid | 23rd Feb 23, 8:56pm 1677139013

Asking for a friend?

by oscar87 | 23rd Feb 23, 9:52pm 1677142373

Na just curious, about 18 months ago I started noticing quite a few these 8/10% guaranteed return property funds propping up. It gave me 2007 vibes, when Bluechip etc were cold calling people for investments.

by Nzdan | 23rd Feb 23, 10:00pm 1677142849

Saw those ads all over Facebook and thought nah you can't be serious.

by JamesM | 23rd Feb 23, 10:03pm 1677143038

Officebounds link above explains it pretty well.

by Chaosinflesh | 24th Feb 23, 7:02am 1677175321

Yup. I remember learning in finance years ago - any company that has to advertise for new investors is in trouble - and you'll see their adverts ramping up all they way till they go bust. And anyone promising 'guaranteed' investment returns should be steered clear of with a 1000-ft barge pole.

It'll be interesting to see if the FMA takes a view on the NZ property ponzi companies, and attempts to claw back excess profits from investors already paid out same as it did with RAM.

by profile | 23rd Feb 23, 4:28pm 1677122882

Known before the covid fiasco but to mention it during the fiasco was verboten. Add to the long list of covid public health balls ups.

"The most rigorous and comprehensive analysis of scientific studies conducted on the efficacy of masks for reducing the spread of respiratory illnesses — including Covid-19 — was published late last month. Its conclusions, said Tom Jefferson, the Oxford epidemiologist who is its lead author, were unambiguous.

“There is just no evidence that they” — masks — “make any difference,” he told the journalist Maryanne Demasi. “Full stop.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/21/opinion/do-mask-mandates-work.html

by chebbo | 23rd Feb 23, 4:41pm 1677123695

Back in 2003 during the SARS outbreak, Australia was literally fining people for claiming that masks were effective protection against coronaviruses:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/farce-mask-its-safe-for-only-20-minutes…

by linklater01 | 23rd Feb 23, 4:56pm 1677124598

profile,

I am puzzled. Under Authors' Conclusions, it says this; "There is uncertainty about the effects of face masks" How does that square with a statement that there is no evidence that they make any difference?

by Beanie | 23rd Feb 23, 5:25pm 1677126335

I am waiting for him to say how much better his car goes without the air cleaner.

by solardb | 23rd Feb 23, 5:34pm 1677126880

And explain why Dentists and surgeons have been wearing masks for years.

by Three Veg | 23rd Feb 23, 5:52pm 1677127953

That’s an easy one. Masks are effective against bacteria as they are much bigger and easier to trap than viruses.

by profile | 23rd Feb 23, 6:29pm 1677130164

People working with viruses wear eye protection. Beanie puts air filters on the car head lights - just to be safe/kind. "The ocular surface can serve as a reservoir and source of contagion for SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted to the ocular surface through hand-eye contact and aerosols, and then transfer to other systems through nasolacrimal route and hematogenous metastasis."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33658750/

by Beanie | 23rd Feb 23, 7:10pm 1677132628

Haha you got me good there 👍

by profile | 23rd Feb 23, 5:36pm 1677126961

Read the next sentence? “The pooled results of RCTs did not show a clear reduction in respiratory viral infection with the use of medical/surgical masks. There were no clear differences between the use of medical/surgical masks compared with N95/P2 respirators in healthcare workers when used in routine care to reduce respiratory viral infection.”

by agnostium | 23rd Feb 23, 6:24pm 1677129857

David,

Please can Profile be banned from the comments section for continuously spreading misinformation? He is paid to do this.

These are the actual words used in the plain language section of the report he quoted under key messages.

"Do physical measures such as hand‐washing or wearing masks stop or slow down the spread of respiratory viruses?

Key messages

We are uncertain whether wearing masks or N95/P2 respirators helps to slow the spread of respiratory viruses based on the studies we assessed.

Hand hygiene programmes may help to slow the spread of respiratory viruses."

by profile | 23rd Feb 23, 6:39pm 1677130770

Well you are right about hand hygiene. There is no evidence in the pooled studies masks made any difference. The author was pretty clear about this. How do think masks stop ocular transmission of viruses?

"Its conclusions, said Tom Jefferson, the Oxford epidemiologist who is its lead author, were unambiguous.

“There is just no evidence that they” — masks — “make any difference,”

by agnostium | 23rd Feb 23, 6:59pm 1677131944

Based on the study outcomes, you could equally say that there is just no evidence that masks do not make a difference.

But you already know this. Your whole angle is to try to undermine scientific consensus with misrepresentation and misinterpretation.

David,

People have been banned from the comments for much less than this.

by profile | 23rd Feb 23, 7:37pm 1677134246

Given the obvious ocular transmission route there are seemingly obvious reasons why masks are ineffective. Not to mention human behaviour like touching your mask. Are you planning to whinge to the lead author, The Lancet and the New York Times about "undermining consensus"? Why stop with profile - go all the way!

by HSL | 23rd Feb 23, 7:45pm 1677134718

You are correct profile but I wouldn’t waste your time. Scared people will believe anything

by Gummy Bear Hero | 23rd Feb 23, 9:53pm 1677142412

.. it is the best interest of the current government to maintain the fear factor , keeping us sheepishly compliant .... and supporting them for " protecting " us from the nasty virus ..

Wakey wakey sheeples : Ardern / Hipkins / Robbo have all been lying to you : wakey wakey !!!

by agnostium | 23rd Feb 23, 10:17pm 1677143834

Nope, just you.

by agnostium | 23rd Feb 23, 10:21pm 1677144061

"Given the obvious ocular transmission route there are seemingly obvious reasons why masks are ineffective."

I'm not interested in your take on science. You posted a link to a scientific article and then tried to misrepresent what the article actual said by selectively quoting it. You do this a lot and that's why I think you should be banned.

by King of the whiners | 23rd Feb 23, 6:46pm 1677131194

You are so right agnostium, he is a serial misinformer, on everything from climate change to viruses.

This blows that Cochrane 'study' out of the water: https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/yes-masks-reduce-risk-spreading-covid…

by Gummy Bear Hero | 23rd Feb 23, 9:55pm 1677142540

I could equally ask David to have you banned for attempting to pervert the course of freedom of speech !

by Nzdan | 23rd Feb 23, 10:03pm 1677142991

There is no expectation of "freedom of speech" on a private individual's platform.

by nigelh | 23rd Feb 23, 6:22pm 1677129748

It gave me a comfortable feeling wearing one. I actually used two on occasion!

by Uninterested | 23rd Feb 23, 6:35pm 1677130508

Can you please advise us where you put the second one?

by nigelh | 23rd Feb 23, 6:57pm 1677131879

On top of the first one.

by Uninterested | 23rd Feb 23, 7:02pm 1677132134

I don't believe you.

by singautim | 23rd Feb 23, 7:01pm 1677132107

I'd been told face masks were useless or even counter-productive because we touch them with our hands. Then, when the govt managed to get a supply, I was told they were essential and later when I flew to the UK I was told they were essential except when eating dinner. My conclusion is to generally trust scientists but be very skeptical of government public relations and especially the media. This attitude has spilled over to other issues such as climate change.

I think they were useful because seeing someone approach wearing a face mask made me step away - being absent minded I probably would have forgotten without the face mask. Of course any indicator would have worked such as a flashing light on the top of the head. If there had been no face mask mandates in supermarkets and buses maybe the outbreaks would have been bigger but over with quicker. Given the number of spare beds and medical staff probably NZ did roughly the right thing but for the wrong scientific reason.

by dumbthoughts | 23rd Feb 23, 7:14pm 1677132844

They told me not to do that in sex ed at school.

by IT GUY | 23rd Feb 23, 8:28pm 1677137331

Learnt more on those dodgey river banks of the tukituki river then in sex ed

by KBKIWI | 23rd Feb 23, 7:49pm 1677134994

These sort of misinformation comment posts make this site are laughing stock. Moderate your comment section properly Interest.co.nz crew!

by IT GUY | 23rd Feb 23, 8:26pm 1677137209

lets see how many queue up for the next booster, was in AKL today did not see a SINGLE mask yet covid still more common then in lockdowns?

by HouseMouse | 23rd Feb 23, 8:45pm 1677138337

My wife just recovered from her second round of Covid

by Gummy Bear Hero | 23rd Feb 23, 10:06pm 1677143190

How do you and the babysitter feel about that ?

by Lanthanide | 23rd Feb 23, 10:50pm 1677145841

Unfortunately this Cochrane metastudy is not actually useful, there are 2 key things wrong with it:

1. They insist on only looking at randomised studies, where people are randomly assigned to a control group or a treatment group. During the COVID pandemic, very few such studies like this have been done, for fairly obvious reasons (ie, it's unethical to expose people to a deadly pandemic virus by preventing them from wearing masks).

2. Because of the above, they used randomised studies involving influenza, a much more mild and much much less contagious illness than COVID

So this unfortunately means the results aren't transit relevant to the efficacy of marks when it comes to stopping COVID transmission.

Sorry profile, but once again the detail of the data and the study at hand does not back up your conspiracy theories.

by AdamJay1990 | 23rd Feb 23, 4:36pm 1677123395

I hope the Banks don't drag their heels again when it comes to upping their savings accounts (and TD) rate post OCR increase. It's pretty shocking how long they all waited after the last hike..

by Justa comment | 23rd Feb 23, 7:11pm 1677132708

Yes no moves yet on the savings and call accounts, well under the odds.

by nzphoenix | 23rd Feb 23, 11:18pm 1677147491

They’ll be all waiting for someone else to blink first. Scum bags.

by HW2 | 23rd Feb 23, 5:24pm 1677126261

Imagine paying $1.7 million in rent on a pretty basic Auckland rental over your lifetime. An average house is probably worth 700,000. Its 'dead money' someone told me

595 pw from age 20 to 75. Not allowing for inflation as rents didn't go up this year.

Rents increasing at 3 percent means total payments to landlord $4.15 million. When you die sadly none of it will go to your kids or grandkids

by Officebound | 23rd Feb 23, 5:51pm 1677127885

Or spend a big chunk of your adult life paying more than rent, for a place you also have to maintain, insure and pay rates on.

They're both bad options.

by WellingtonInvestor | 23rd Feb 23, 6:37pm 1677130622

That wouldn't be very common though would it? Unless buying at the top of the market, after being sucked in by very low rates , and then rates rising and staying up. But many landlords who purchased investment properties maybe in that same situation, and as shown in Oz, rents are increasing as a result of the rising interest rates, pushing up inflation even more.

by IT GUY | 23rd Feb 23, 8:33pm 1677137612

Don't be a dork, wait and buy cheap, maybe off a failed developer in 3.... 2..... 1

by Officebound | 23rd Feb 23, 5:52pm 1677127923

Also, compounding rent increases, then expressing it in todays dollars shows your bias.

Try viewing things holistically and objectively

by HW2 | 23rd Feb 23, 9:33pm 1677141203

No not really, I showed you both sides, with and without minimal inflation. Use a spreadsheet and plug in best and worst case scenarios. Anyone who is not prepared to do that, is biased and refuses to keep their eyes open

What I would like to know is how much money a landlord will have if he simply invested all the proceeds. From a purely objective perspective it might be worth considering

by J.C. | 23rd Feb 23, 5:31pm 1677126696

Imagine paying $1.7 million in rent on a pretty basic Auckland rental over your lifetime. An average house is probably worth 700,000. Its 'dead money' someone told me

That would mean living in Auckland for your entire existence--very much a boomer mindset. Not something I personally would enjoy. But each to their own.

by Nzdan | 23rd Feb 23, 5:45pm 1677127533

Meanwhile if you increase mortgage payments alongside wage increases, you can easily get your loan term down to 15 years. No different than rent going up with wages. It's the years post mortgage discharge that really magnify the gains. $30k per year from age 45-50 not going on rent is $500-$600k for retirement.

Mind you, it's generally cheaper in the short term to rent, so people with a bit of risk appetite may want to invest the savings between rent and owning early on and make some good coin from compounded gains.

by DDDDebt | 23rd Feb 23, 9:10pm 1677139815

HW2 - Imagine not knowing when it’s cheaper to rent than own

Luckily Opes Partners the property investment education & property developer ticket clipper have created this handy tool for property investors

https://www.opespartners.co.nz/investment/property-investment/managing-…

It shows how much investors need to ‘top-up’ an average $769k mortgage over the next ten years - with $600pw rental income

Top-up means how much more investors need to contribute to cover the shortfall on their rental income

Of course, their numbers were based on Uncle Tony’s expert projections from 6 months ago of retail mortgage rates peaking at 4.5% - so you need to add another 50% in income shortfall if the OCR hits 5.5% like the RBNZ have promised

Also, I’m sure they haven’t allowed for increased rates and insurance so for calculations sake you might as well double it and say you’re saving about $15k+ per year renting the average property

And then chuck in another $10k compounding from your $200k deposit on term deposit, and you start to realise why HW2 is the only Spruiker left on here

Residential Property Investment has always been a mugs game without capital gains - it's always been about timing the market, not time in the market - everyone knows that right?

by Pa1nter | 23rd Feb 23, 9:13pm 1677139994

Anyone needing to pay for an education in investing in anything is a customer first and foremost.

If it's an easy script and formula then chances are there's no money to be made.

by HW2 | 23rd Feb 23, 9:32pm 1677141153

I am talking about over the lifetime of a tenant.

With very modest inflation. It costs literally multi millions to rent.

After a period of time, a tenant becomes stuck, with all the will in the world theyre unable to buy. Having kids in a rental is not a bright idea, as family demands and expenses eat your cash and reduce your income. After that they are too old and the bank won't lend.

Depressing huh

by DDDDebt | 23rd Feb 23, 9:57pm 1677142639

You've clearly not run the numbers

5%+ on term deposit is the game changer

www.theshapeofmoney.co.nz/general-resources/calculators/rent-versus-buy…

It's not depressing to rent if you have 0% capital growth/gains and run the numbers on rent vs own... it's enlightening and I wish more FHB's would understand this... roughly $750k+ saved over the first 15 years

If there is 5% capital growth per annum you still save $150k

Rates, Maintenance and Insurance are the thief in the night - every landlord with admit that.

Of course when property is falling -10%+ per year it's an absolute no brainer... the numbers don't lie.

by HW2 | 23rd Feb 23, 10:17pm 1677143870

The fact is that tenants pay a kings ransom and then have nothing to show for all that cost. Your blindspots are showing

I always run my numbers on a zero capital growth. I even did the rent at zero percent inflation which I know is ludicrous. I got accused of being biased by someone who closed their mind to an alternative possibility for inflation.

by DDDDebt | 23rd Feb 23, 10:36pm 1677144996

It's always about timing.

https://www.opespartners.co.nz/property-markets/waikato

How much capital growth was there in Thames between 2006 and 2016. Roughly none.

So you're happy to bet this cycle is different?

If you need to make it simpler, the only fact you need to know is a stagnate flat or falling market for landlords can't compete with 5% capital gains on term deposits for tenants. It's leverage in reverse.

The numbers don't lie. Don't let the blinkers from the old days of capital gains and 1% on term deposit confuse you.

by HW2 | 24th Feb 23, 3:39am 1677163146

DDDDEBT Why do you mention that about Thames, and what happened after 2016

I dont think I am betting anything, the figures above have showed more than I have ever seen been before that it is not TIMING as much as TIME-IN

You keep turning the discussion to landlords perspective

So you are biding your time and waiting it out? Is it possible you will miss the moment while you are waiting for 'right house right price right location' and how can you be sure. You mightn't have that long to wait but I think you are thinking it will be years away and put the money in TD and throw away the key

by Chaosinflesh | 24th Feb 23, 7:19am 1677176384

I'm 41, and I so far in my life, I've paid about $250k in rent. Heavily offset by being single in my 20's and flatting, and then having a family in my 30s now requiring a larger house than average - but we'll only need that till the kids leave home (and if they don't they'll be contributing towards the rent).

How much interest (dead money also), is the average mortgage owner going to pay over that time? There are significant advantages to owning, but without capital gains, a renter's investment will out-perform a house. With capital gains it may be another story, but the numbers haven't stacked up for us for years, so we keep choosing to rent. This market should've crashed long ago, but I underestimated how hard the VIB would work to keep it going.

by Nzdan | 24th Feb 23, 9:39am 1677184748

Depends on appetite for risk and what the individual sees as important. Invest the savings from rent vs own in the NZX50 8% p.a. (20 yr ave = 7.14%) you're on your way to some great compounded gains. Say mortgage is gone in 15 years, and the owner starts investing. By year 15 their returns will only be 40% of the renter's return AFTER rent is factored in.

Me personally, I'd rather avoid having my daughter potentially change schools at the whim of a landlord. "Sorry you had to change schools and make new friends, but look on the bright side, daddy is set up for retirement".

by elmoboy12 | 23rd Feb 23, 5:26pm 1677126365

Another 700,000 hectares slated to go into pines, much of it replacing sheep and cattle farms that were one of our biggest export earners. Many thanks to the Green Party for their legislation that made this possible. We can see the result with all the pine trees clogging waterways after the cyclone.

by HW2 | 23rd Feb 23, 5:28pm 1677126501

We are screwed

by HW2 | 23rd Feb 23, 9:40pm 1677141639

While nz sheep population is declining, aussie sheep are increasing up to around 70m. They have a lot of merino and the fine wool is worth more than our coarse wool

We can turn the Aussie sheep shagging jokes back on them

by solardb | 23rd Feb 23, 5:36pm 1677126997

most of the farmland going into pines is supporting 1 stock unit per Ha, I doubt the impact to production will be major. People forget if we don't plant trees , we import carbon credits in the future.

by False economies | 23rd Feb 23, 6:28pm 1677130091

I'd be careful blaming it all on forestry (although they certainly deserve a lot of flak). Take a look at the article here https://www.nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-today/news/flight-over-hawkes-bay-coast-reveals-severe-landscape-damage/3Q2VPHBF2ZFL7NZEHH5A5K3ECY/

Trees cut down to grow sheep and cattle causing massive erosion...

by solardb | 23rd Feb 23, 5:39pm 1677127167

Carbon forestry does not create slash , it reduces silt runoff on steep farmland that should never have been cleared. https://scontent.fakl4-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/331974799_64219013…

The slash is coming form prouction forestry been harvested.

Any links to transport experts ( not road transport adovcates) that claim " The CRL is a massive fixed rail project solving yesterday's issues. The world moved on, pretty much as many critics suggested it would".

by Tom Joad | 23rd Feb 23, 5:46pm 1677127568

The Waterview Tunnel could easily have been an above ground freeway extension.

Which would have involved the destruction on 100s of homes and slicing Mt Albert/Avondale in two.

by Squishy | 23rd Feb 23, 6:11pm 1677129062

I thought that story about the South Korean fertility rate slipping to 0.7 births per woman was interesting. If the replacement rate is 2.1 I guess it means that the next generation will be only a third the size of the current generation. Talk about a demographic squeeze!

by nktokyo | 23rd Feb 23, 6:40pm 1677130828

Japan's population declining by circa half a million a year now.

by singautim | 23rd Feb 23, 7:05pm 1677132334

And that means empty houses. Same will happen to NZ in another generation. I must remind my children not to buy investment properties.

by Uninterested | 23rd Feb 23, 6:27pm 1677130047

Couldn't agree more on your comments on the light rail debacle.

One way the dorks are talking about part paying for it is "value uplift". ie Those who live near it will have to cough up cash "if" their properties become more valuable. "If", because it's a falling market. Plus it could become less desirable to live in that area as it becomes increasingly dense with housing.

Also, I don't want to think about how long it would take to get to the airport on it!

by JimboJones | 23rd Feb 23, 6:53pm 1677131613

I couldn’t agree less. David hates public transport for some reason, I wonder if he has ever travelled to London or Tokyo. I doubt they wish they had spent all their money on roads like we have.

by J.C. | 23rd Feb 23, 7:03pm 1677132202

I doubt they wish they had spent all their money on roads like we have.

Japan's roads are a dream to drive on. The highway system is out of this world.

by JimboJones | 23rd Feb 23, 7:08pm 1677132525

I doubt they’d be that great if they shut down the trains.

by agnostium | 23rd Feb 23, 7:08pm 1677132502

I respect David's editorial line on many things but with transport he is way off but it's not unusual in New Zealand.

New Zealander's attitude to car travel is very similar to US attitudes to carrying guns. Anyone else looking in can see how crazy the policies are but New Zealander's just can't see the problem.

The solutions are congestion charges, higher parking fees, less public subsidies for driving and parking, investment into making alternatives to driving more attractive and safe, building more houses closer to public transport links and closer to main centres.

It's all well established and proven best practice abroad but it appears we a doomed to go through the same arguments other more advanced societies went through 40 years ago rather than learn from their experience.

by JimboJones | 23rd Feb 23, 7:17pm 1677133039

Yep. Even the Act party doesn’t see the harm in socialising roading costs even though they are staring us in the face.

by Noncents | 23rd Feb 23, 9:22pm 1677140543

In defence of David, he is right, AKL Light rail is a) not a worldclass metro system (Tube, MRT, Subway) and d b) not a world class rail network (Shinkansen, Europe) train network.

An article on the news tonight compared it to the DART in Dublin. Having lived there and used the DART Regularly. It is apples and oranges. , the AKL one will be nothing like the DART.

One serves a densly built up city and a purpose built business park housing the European head offices of many of the worlds biggest tech firms.
The other will connect a functionally dead CBD with an Airport.

Our car policies are indeed crazy...to a point. But one should note, that all of these countries with top notch public transport, all have equally top notch roading systems.

We have shit roads, and worse public transport. First world dreams reliant on third world exports.

by agnostium | 23rd Feb 23, 10:38pm 1677145139

The trench/underground version is a dog, you will not find many transport experts who would suggest it is a good idea. Surface option is sound, it will be an important part of an overall system.

You are right though, public transport is not as good as it should be in Auckland. This is mainly because Auckland decided to actively undermine it and promote car use instead. This was a stupid idea and we now live with the consequences of those actions. We're also in denial about the changes that are required to fix those decisions and the cost of implementing them.

Auckland's councils' refused to invest in proper solutions in order to appease "ratepayers" who couldn't bring themselves to face the consequences of their decisions. I think it's a bit rich to complain about public transport being rubbish and then also complain about improvements to public transport, and having to pay for improvements to public transport.

I don't know what you mean by functionally dead CBD.

As others have said the airport is not the main reason to do it. In fact you could cut it short of the airport and get most of the benefits. The airport bit is to appease the rich business travelers who also happen to sit on some of the most influential boards.

by HouseMouse | 23rd Feb 23, 7:29pm 1677133749

Yeah he does. As stated before he’s a very curious mix of climate change denier / public transport skeptic / Trump hater / Dem Party supporter / Aussie basher / NZ patriot

edit: climate change denier is probably unfair. Perhaps more like a denier of any notion that we can do anything meaningful about it. Which I have some time for as a notion.

by JohnfromtheTron | 23rd Feb 23, 8:30pm 1677137425

Shut down 1 lane each way of State Highways 1, 16, 20, 20A and 20 B and build a loop railway system on top of the road. Car parks near by the train stops. Could be used by commuters as well as Airport users. It would cover a large amount of the Auckland population. If it was efficient enough you wouldn't miss the highway lanes as so many people would use it. Bet that wouldn't cost (Auckland rate payers) $30billion.

by agnostium | 23rd Feb 23, 10:43pm 1677145432

The Mayor will not even consider removing a few unused car parks on arterial roads to help improve bus travel times and reliability. There is no way in hell he would support that.

Waka Kotahi will not even consider removing one lane of traffic over the harbour bridge to let people cross by foot or bike even though it's been proven that it will have no impact on traffic flows. There is no way in hell they would take a motorway traffic lane.

Car is sacrosanct.

by nktokyo | 23rd Feb 23, 6:40pm 1677130800

What's wrong with improving the existing heavy rail and having that run to the airport?

Why make something new?

by Firstclass | 23rd Feb 23, 6:56pm 1677131796

" Auckland's boondoggle light-rail-to-the-airport project. It currently has a projected cost of between $15 bln and $30 bln for the preferred underground options, although a $9 bln "modest" above-ground remains on the table."

$9 billion that is slower than a bicycle, outstanding ... geniuses.

I noted after the Ed Sheeran concert what a mess the public transport in Auckland is.

by JimboJones | 23rd Feb 23, 6:57pm 1677131826

Because it would only add one or two new stations, and contrary to popular belief, airports are not particularly busy stations. The main goals of light rail are to provide good public transport to the central isthmus, onehunga and Māngere, the airport is just a bonus.

No one ever said such a comment about the south western motorway.