Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None to report here either (although there will be a good rise to report tomorrow).
TREADING WATER
Today's dairy auction was a disappointment, mainly because an expected rise didn't happen. And there was a very bid fall for cheddar cheese which took a significant hit, easing nearly -US$500/t on average with the commodity’s lowest price since mid 2021. In a little-changed environment, demand from China was unremarkable, but even so without it the result would be even more of a disappointment. Westpac notes that this result brings in downside risk to their farmgate payout forecast.
TOPPING OUT?
Remember there was an unexpectedly strong January for job ads. The February data increased again, this time with a more modest rise. Auckland ad levels were steady after the late-January flood events. The they fell away in Hawkes Bay after their catastrophe.
NEW PRESS GALLERY REPORTER
We are (very!) pleased to announce that Dan Brunskill has joined our team of journalists, as our Press Gallery reporter and will be based in Wellington as we build up to cover the economic and policy side of the upcoming election policy debates.
STORMS AFFECT RESULTS & DATA QUALITY
The specific impacts of Cyclones Hale and Gabrielle are expected to be seen in the data Stats NZ collects and it will affect results from the March 2023 quarter. Readers should seek out the notes that discuss these impacts as each data set is updated over the next few months, and probably all of 2023.
ENTREPRENEURAL FRAUD
A former American developer who arrived here in 2016 in an entrepreneur residency visa has been jailed for tax fraud in relation to $1.5 mln in fraudulent GST refunds. Colin David Rath was charged under the Crimes Act with dishonesty charges relating to work on a North Canterbury vineyard business. He claimed for work done for others on property not owned by him.
REGULATORY INFLATION
In Australia, they are about to get reformed energy pricing regulations on July 1 to be announced very soon - and industry insiders say consumers may get a +20% bill-shock as a result. But perhaps they are used to this? They had an +18% rise last year too.
SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be marginally firmer today across the curve. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 5.19% which is +44 bps above the current OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.71% and down -8 bps today after the RBA commentary. The China 10 year bond rate is softer by another -1 bp at 2.90%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.66% and down -2 bps from yesterday and now back above the earlier RBNZ fix at 4.58% which was down -11 bps today in a 'catchup'. The UST 10 year is at 3.99%, and up +2 bps from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
In its Tuesday session on Wall Street, the S&P500 gave up ground increasingly as the day wore on and ended down -1.5%. Of course, Powell's hawkish testimony to the US Congress didn't help. Tokyo has opened its Wednesday session up +0.2%. Hong Kong has started down a very sharp -2.2%. (Hong Kong has a fixed exchange rate pegged to the USD.). And Shanghai is down -0.3%. The ASX200 is down -0.7% in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 is down -0.5% in late trade.
GOLD MUCH SOFTER AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down rather hard again from this time yesterday, now at US$1813/oz and down -US$35.
NZD SLIPS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is almost -1c lower than this time yesterday, now at 61.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are +¾c firmer at just over 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 57.9 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is down -30 bps at 69.7.
BITCOIN STILL BECALMED
Bitcoin has moved very little again today, now at US$22,242 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.4%.
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