Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None today here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None today here either.
DOWN, BUT HOW MUCH MORE BECKONS?
The March REINZ data was released today and it showed the peak summer real estate sales season finished on a 12-year low for a March month. Bank analysts are taking the position the bottom is near, but given we are going into tough selling period until September at the earliest, these do seem brave calls. ANZ suggests we are approaching a floor, Kiwibank says prices "won't fall forever". Westpac says "the market is starting to stabilise". Infometrics says "we expect the total peak-to-trough decline will hit 21% before house prices start to moderate." Nationally the peak-to-trough is currently -16.2%. For Auckland it is -23% (the peak was November 2021). Of course all these declines are nominal. We don't get the March CPI data until Thursday, but high current inflation will add to those making the 'real' inflation adjusted falls much greater.
MORE HOUSES COMING
Ellerslie Racecourse and Fletcher Residential have been granted fast-track resource consent with conditions for a housing development on racecourse land. They will build around 370 residential units. The proposed housing will include a mix of detached, duplex, terrace houses and apartments.
TRENDING DOWN
There is another dairy auction tomorrow morning. It will be awaited nervously, given that prices have declined in nine of the last 12 weeks. Two weeks ago it was down -4.7% from the prior event, down -35% from a year ago. A week ago a WMP Pulse event resulted in the WMP price falling another -1.6% from the last GDT auction. Certainly Chinese foodservice buyers weren't out for the Pulse event. The best prospects seem to be for SMP. Butter may take yet another hit.
LOWER BALANCES, HIGHER INTEREST COST
Bank settlement balances at the RBNZ (on which the RBNZ pays interest at the OCR level) have slipped to $45.8 bln as at the end of March. That cost the RBNZ more than $200 mln in interest alone. But the bank's balances at the RBNZ are now at their lowest since August. These settlement balances fell -$3.25 bln in March from February.
FX CURRENCY SWAP ACTIVITY SURGES
FX market NZD currency swaps surged in March, their highest since October 2014.
CHINA BOUNCES
China's bounce out of its pandemic lockdown raised their GDP by +2.2% in Q1-2023 from Q4-2022. This was the rise analysts expected. However from a year ago, their GDP is up +4.5% which was more than the 4.0% expected. This was all driven by retail sales which were up +10.6% with widespread revenge spending. Electricity production was up +5.1% with coal production up +5.5% and imported coal flooding back in. Industrial production rose +3.9% when +4% was expected. If you think about these changes, they don't actually suggest a very stable situation but that may just be their systems stuttering to reopen.
A RISKY POLICY POSITION
The latest RBA minutes show they are prepared to raise rates again, despite their recent pause, because they fear strong population growth and big public sector wage rises will push up inflation again. The pause was nervously agreed, these minutes show. Inflation is currently running at 7.8%. The policy rate is still only 3.6%.
SWAP RATES FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates are probably higher again today, probably about +10 bps across the curve. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.54% and 29 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.46% and up +9 bps from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.86%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.24%, and that is up another +7 bps from yesterday, and still above the the earlier RBNZ fix at 4.16% which is up another +1 bp and still in catch-up mode. The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.59% and up +8 bps from yesterday.
EQUITIES DIRECTIONLESS
The S&P500 ended its Monday session up +0.3% with a modest late rally. Tokyo has opened up +0.6%. Hong Kong has started its Tuesday session down -0.6% which Shanghai is little changed at its open. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 is down -0.4% in late trade.
GOLD SOFT
In early Asian trade, gold is softer from this time yesterday, down -US$7/oz at US$1997/oz. It closed earlier in New York at US$1995/oz and in London at US$1996/oz.
NZD HOLDS LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is still just at 61.9 USc and marginally softer from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are soft at 92.4 AUc. And against the euro we are still at 56.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is still at 69.8.
BITCOIN SLIPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price has fallen another -2.0% since this time yesterday, now at US$29,434. At one point it hit US$29,801. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/-1.7%.
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