We’re still adding jobs. Statistics NZ’s latest employment indicator data for March shows more than 9000 jobs were added in the month compared with February.
The figures have been seasonally-adjusted.
The largest improvement in filled jobs was seen in goods-producing industries, with more than 3,300 filled jobs in March compared to February, an increase of 0.7%.
Looking year-on-year, there was strength in the Covid-constricted accommodation and food services sector, with 12.9% more jobs in March 2023 when compared to March 2022. That accounted for more than 13,000 jobs.
Filled jobs in transport, postal, and warehousing also saw a decent rise of 7% year-on-year, or more than 6200 jobs.
The service industries added more than 6000 jobs, while primary industries added 196 jobs compared with February.
Statistics NZ’s February employment indicators showed seasonally-adjusted filled jobs rose 0.4%, or by about 8400 jobs compared with January. In the first month of the year, filled jobs rose 0.8% after hitting negative territory in December.
Westpac economist Michael Gordon said jobs growth seemed to have picked up pace, and there were more people available to hire due to a resurgence in migration.
Migrant arrivals for the year ended February 2023 rose 195% compared with the year ended February 2022, Stats NZ data showed. In February 2023 more than 21,000 migrants arrived in the country, a 641% increase on the same month in 2022.
Gordon said jobs growth had been pretty steady at about 2% annually in 2022. He said it had now kicked up to 3.6% year-on-year.
"That aspect is reflecting the growth in the workforce, and no softening in momentum."
Those looking for signs New Zealand had entered a recession wouldn't find confirmation in the data, which Gordon rates highly because it's drawn from tax returns and not a survey which he said made it "comprehensive". He said the employment indicator should give us a "fairly clean read on the direction of the economy".
"While there are more people around to hire, the overarching issue is that businesses are still hiring, that's not really a sign that the economy is already in recession," Gordon said.
New Zealand's latest Gross Domestic Product was weaker than expected, with a 0.6% contraction for the three months ended December 2022. New Zealand’s unemployment rate came in at 3.4% in the December quarter of 2022.
But the Reserve Bank has been on the warpath to attack inflation, and is expected to raise rates again at least once this year, bringing the Official Cash Rate to 5.5%.
Gordon said the Reserve Bank would need to see signs in the numbers soon that it had done enough to get on top of inflation.
"Today's numbers are not challenging the Reserve Bank's view [of another OCR increase]."
Gordon said where NZ saw a lot of jobs growth among teenagers in 2022, so far this year the growth in jobs had been more balanced across age groups.
Among those aged 65 and up, filled jobs rose 8.5% adding more than 9,764 jobs in March 2023 compared to March 2022. Young workers filled roles increased by 12.7%, meaning more than 16,000 jobs.
The next major labour market release will land on May 3.
ASB economists expect unemployment will come in at 3.5% for the first quarter of 2023. It was 3.4% in the December 2022 quarter, according to Stats NZ.
ASB said it expected the first quarter data would show slightly more hiring despite sharply lower base economic momentum, and slightly more spare capacity within the broader labour market.
"The demand for labour is expected to cool over 2023 as the economy slows. Firms are wary about the economic outlook and look to be re-evaluating their employment plans. Employment intentions from recent ANZ business outlook surveys have remained well into negative territory," ASB said.
ASB also saw a boost coming from immigration. It said net immigration flows, whilst highly volatile, were on a strengthening trajectory.
It said NZ should remain an attractive destination to live and work, although the economic slowdown could see some of this appeal wane.
Kiwibank is picking unemployment will remain steady at 3.4%, and said the "Kiwi labour market remains tight as a drum".
Alexia Osborne, Recruitment Operations Manager at Fonterra, said a competitive job market continued to be a key consideration for its recruitment team.
"We recognise that quality candidates will likely have multiple options open to them in the current job market, and we see this through an increase in counter offers from current employers, as well as a significant volume of concurrent offers from other employers, which can often extend the time it takes to fill our roles."
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