A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; the floating rate increases kick in, commodity prices sag, building slowdown arrives, swaps jump, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank raised its floating rate by +25 bps to 8.50%. Nelson Building Society (NBS) raised their by the same amount, but to 9.00%. WBS did too, rising to 8.50%. The Co-operative Bank raised most of its key fixed rates but only by about +5 bps.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank raised its Notice Saver rates by +25 bps taking its 32 day Notice Saver account to 4.80% and its 90 days Notice Saver to 5.35%. It also raised its call accounts by +15 bps.

LOW CHINA DEMAND SUPPRESSES COMMODITY PRICES
The ANZ Commodity price index hasn't moved much in May, but the moves it did make were generally lower. Dairy prices lifted but prices for meat, export logs and aluminium fell. Generally, a misfiring China isn't helping demand for commodities.

SLOWDOWN ARRIVES
There are early signs the predicted downturn in building activity is already starting to bite. The value of building work completed in Q1-2023 dropped by -$459 mln from Q4-2022.

BUYING MARKET SHARE
Ebos (EBO, #5) has said it will lose its NZ$1.9 bln contract with Chemist Warehouse Australia from July 2024, a bit less than 20% of its overall revenue. The winner is Sigma Healthcare and they say it will be worth AU$3 bln in its first year to them. Chemist Warehouse has 450 stores in Australia. Sigma actually competes with them in the Australian pharmacy market with their own 'aligned' 1200 stores, branded Amcal, Guardian, Discount Drug Stores, and PharmaSave. Their franchisees may in for a rough rise from here.

LESS NEED FOR THE DAIGOU
Synlait Milk (SML. #49 ), the key supplier to A2 Milk (ATM, #9) has received approval from Chinese authorities to sell its China-label baby formula in China, removing a major concern for both stocks.

RBA ABOUT TO ANNOUNCE JUNE DECISION
The Reserve Bank of Australia has its monthly rate review at 4:30 pm today NZT and is widely expected to make to change at 3.85%. But there is a vocal minority that feels they can't wait to keep the pressure on their growing inflation threat. Update: They did pull the trigger, surprising many, raising their cash rate target by +25 bps to 4.10%.

SWAP RATES UP
Wholesale swap rates are likely firmer today and maybe by as much as +10 bps. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up a mere +1 bp at 5.69% and only +19 bps above the 5.50% OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.75% and up +2 bps from this morning. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.73%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is at 4.49% and up +12 bps, and that is still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix which leapt +17 bps to 4.44%. The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.70% with little-change from this morning.

EQUITIES MIXED
Wall Street closed with the S&P500 down -0.2% in its Monday session. Tokyo has opened up +0.4% after a soft start. Hong Kong has had a stronger start, up +1.1%. Shanghai has opened little-changed. The ASX200 is down -0.5% in afternoon trade today after yesterday's +0.9% gain. The NZX50 is down -0.7% in late trade today,

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1963/oz and up a marginal +US$3 from this morning. Earlier in New York it closed at US$1962/oz and London closed at US$1959/oz.

NZD UNCHANGED
The Kiwi dollar has recovered its Friday level, moving back up to 60.8 USc after a softish patch in between. Against the Aussie we have firmed slightly to 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 56.7 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 69.3 and virtually unchanged.

BITCOIN DROPS
The bitcoin price has stayed down after the US SEC action against Binance. It is now at US$25,679 and little-changed from where it was this morning, but down -5.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high at +/- 3.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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