Stats NZ reports a $472 million inflation-adjusted, seasonally-adjusted increase in volume of retail sales in September quarter with the increase dominated by rises in electronic goods and motor vehicle sales

Economists are taking much better than expected September quarter retail trade figures as a positive sign for the third-quarter GDP figures due to be released next month.

Statistics New Zealand is reporting that retail activity increased 1.9% ($472 million) on an inflation-adjusted, seasonally-adjusted basis in the September quarter - with the increase led by rises in electronic goods sales and motor vehicle and parts retailing.

Stats NZ's economic indicators spokesperson Michelle Feyen said the overall increase in retail activity was the largest since the December quarter 2021.

Eight of the retail industries had rises and seven had falls, according to Stats NZ.

Stats NZ said by industry the largest movements were:

• motor vehicle and parts retailing – up 7.2%
• electrical and electronic goods retailing – up 9.8%
• supermarket and grocery stores – down 1.4%
• food and beverage services – up 1.6%
• hardware, building, and garden supplies – up 1.7%

Other key facts supplied by Stats NZ comparing the September quarter with the June quarter included:

• total volume of seasonally adjusted retail sales was $26 billion, up 1.9%
• total value of seasonally adjusted retail sales was $31 billion, up 1.7% ($521 million)
• 14 of the 16 regions had higher seasonally adjusted sales values
• total value of actual retail sales was $30 billion, up 5.0% ($1.4 billion), compared with the September 2024 quarter
• total value of actual stock as at 30 September 2025 was $9.2 billion, down 0.3% ($26 million) compared with 30 September 2024.

Stats NZ says actual values are in current prices and not adjusted for inflation or price effects. Seasonally adjusted values have had typical seasonal patterns removed. Volumes have had price changes removed and are expressed in September 2010 quarter prices.

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said that the 1.9% rise in retail activity for the September quarter was "much stronger than our own and market forecasts for a rise of around 0.5%".

"Much of September’s rise was related to increased spending on motor vehicles and household appliances. Those are both categories that can be ‘lumpy’ on a quarter-to-quarter basis (for instance, most people don’t buy a new car each quarter), so we could see some of those gains easing back later in the year."

He said, however, looking at under the surface, spending in discretionary areas more generally has been trending higher over the past year.

"This is an encouraging sign. The past year has seen large falls in interest rates, including another 25bp cut from the RBNZ yesterday. And as those falls in borrowing costs have been rippling through the economy, we’re starting to see households dusting off their credit cards." 

Westpac economists are forecasting GDP growth of 0.4% in the September quarter.

"Today’s result was ahead of our expectations, though much of that will relate to imported goods. We’ll take a closer look at how our forecast for GDP growth is shaping up over the next couple of weeks as additional data on September quarter activity is released," Ranchhod said.

ASB economist Yen Nguyen said third quarter retail spending came in much stronger than expected "and, together with other indicators, points to a positive GDP growth for the third quarter of the year, following a decline recorded in Q2".

"The results provide further evidence that monetary policy easing is filtering through the economy. It appears that the worst may be behind us, and we are looking forward to a more pronounced recovery over 2026, though there are still lingering headwinds facing the retail sector. With the recovery underway, we expect a more pronounced rebound in these previously restrained areas of spending, with clearer evidence likely to emerge as the year progresses," she said.

September quarter GDP figures will be released on December 18.