Retail NZ says while there is slightly more willingness by households to pull out the wallet, 'shoppers are remaining cautious about how much they are spending'

Retail industry body Retail NZ is welcoming new figures that showed retailers experienced "a much-needed uptick in consumer spending" to start the New Year.

Stats NZ’s latest electronic card transactions for January 2026 show actual core retail card spending (not including fuel and motor vehicles) rose by 1.1% year-on-year. It follows December’s 0.5% drop in spending on the year earlier. 

Retail NZ chief executive Carolyn Young says the spending figures from January show retailers have received "a small spending boost to start the year, which will have been particularly welcome after a muted sales period in the traditionally-strong December Christmas spending rush".

"While durables experienced a decline in card spending of of 1.5%, all other core retail sectors experienced a rise, which will have been particularly well-received by the struggling apparel sector with their 1.4% boost compared to the previous year."

Stats NZ's seasonally adjusted figures comparing January with December showed that total retail sales fell 1.1% ($78 million), while spending in the core retail industries decreased 0.9% ($60 million).

"In actual terms, cardholders made 177 million transactions across all industries in January 2026, with an average value of $55 per transaction. The total amount spent using electronic cards was $9.8 billion," Stats NZ said.

The $55 per transaction figure was in fact down on a figure of $56 per transaction for the same month a year ago.

And Retail NZ's Young noted that while there is slightly more willingness by households to pull out the wallet, "shoppers are remaining cautious about how much they are spending".

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod suggested that some of January’s seasonally adjusted falls "might be payback for the gains in spending that we saw in categories like furnishings through the final months of 2025".

He said looking to the year ahead, the pieces are in place for a pickup in household spending, though it might be gradual in the near term.

"Average borrowing costs are still dropping as many borrowers continue to roll off earlier higher mortgage rates and on to lower ones. Export commodity earnings remain firm, boosting incomes in many parts of the country. Consumer confidence is on the rise. Fuel prices have fallen. And population growth looks like it has reached a low. 

"But while there are a range of factors that will help to support spending over the coming year, we’ve continued to see softness in the labour market, with unemployment rising to 5.4% over the past year. The related softness in disposable income growth is likely to remain a drag on spending for a while yet."

Young said that surveys have been reporting a lift in consumer confidence in recent months, "and retailers will be hoping that those green shoots are now starting to filter through to the shop floor".

"However, our members are reporting they have been adjusting sales targets and stock levels to better reflect the recent behaviour of shoppers, who have been deeply impacted by the high cost-of-living." 

In an "About the Data" note with the latest electronic card transactions data release, Stats NZ says that the figures "are based on aggregated administrative data generated in the process of administering New Zealand-based electronic transactions". 

"Stats NZ does not control how data providers classify their merchants, and we are unable to see which merchants sit within each industry. 

"Some transactions cannot be categorised by data providers and are therefore excluded from ECT results.

"The ECT figures reflect the data provided, which can change over time. For example, when merchants switch to data providers not covered by Stats NZ, coverage may shift and reported totals may change."