ANZ’s analysis of traffic in New Zealand during May shows a loss of momentum in vehicle traffic on our roads.
The latest edition of ANZ’s Truckometer – a set of two economic indicators that uses real-time traffic data from around the country – found traffic dipped in May across both of the indexes the Truckometer tracks.
The bank's economists describe Truckometer data as an “extremely timely” barometer of economic momentum. Traffic data is a good indicator of economic activity because a large proportion of freight in New Zealand is transported by road.
The Truckometer’s Light Traffic Index (LTI), which looks at cars, vans and motorbikes, fell 0.2% in May.
ANZ NZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said the LTI traffic shows a “marked loss of momentum”.
The LTI typically leads gross domestic product (GDP) by six months. On a yearly basis, the LTI is up just 0.4% compared to May 2025.
The latest Selected Price Index (SPI) figures out of Statistics NZ in May found that from March to April, petrol prices jumped 12.6% while diesel prices increased 36.6%.
The Truckometer’s Heavy Traffic Index (HTI), which tracks mostly trucks but also buses, fell 1.3% in May. The HTI was still up 1.9% year-on-year in May.
The HTI typically paints a picture of production GDP in real-time, although this data is more volatile than the LTI.
March quarter GDP figures are set to be released on June 18, which is Thursday next week. In its May Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), the Reserve Bank said “timely indicators” have suggested the economy will have continued to expand in the March 2026 quarter.
The Reserve Bank’s GDP nowcasting model, Kiwi-GDP, which integrates information from the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) and the Performance of Services Index (PSI) as well as data from a broad range of other indicators, suggests the economy grew 0.5% in the March 2026 quarter.
New Zealand’s economy grew 0.2% in the December 2025 quarter. Although the figure was down on a downwardly revised 0.9% GDP figure for the September 2025 quarter, the March quarter data meant NZ has now recorded three quarters of growth in the past four quarters.
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