Doug Steel
BNZ economists are the latest to lower their milk price forecast for the current season - to $6, which is below Fonterra's forecast range of $6.25 to $6.50
3rd Dec 18, 3:01pm
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BNZ economists are the latest to lower their milk price forecast for the current season - to $6, which is below Fonterra's forecast range of $6.25 to $6.50
US dollar has pushed higher across the board, arresting its slide over the past week; plunge in oil prices continues; NZD opens this morning close to its overnight lows around 0.6810; US interest rates traded a narrow range
21st Nov 18, 7:43am
US dollar has pushed higher across the board, arresting its slide over the past week; plunge in oil prices continues; NZD opens this morning close to its overnight lows around 0.6810; US interest rates traded a narrow range
Equity markets oscillated around flat before pressing lower, likewise US yields; oil prices have recovered a small amount of recent heavy losses; NZD is at the top of the G10 leader board
15th Nov 18, 7:54am
Equity markets oscillated around flat before pressing lower, likewise US yields; oil prices have recovered a small amount of recent heavy losses; NZD is at the top of the G10 leader board
ASB economists now see a milk price for this season of $6.25 per kilogram of milk solids, down from a previous forecast of $6.50; see farmer net earnings as about $240 million lower
17th Oct 18, 2:10pm
ASB economists now see a milk price for this season of $6.25 per kilogram of milk solids, down from a previous forecast of $6.50; see farmer net earnings as about $240 million lower
Economists say milk production levels this season will be crucial, with the strong start already putting pressure on prices
3rd Oct 18, 4:40pm
Economists say milk production levels this season will be crucial, with the strong start already putting pressure on prices
BNZ senior economist Doug Steel sees Fonterra's $6.75 milk price forecast as difficult to achieve without an improvement in international product prices
27th Sep 18, 4:16pm
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BNZ senior economist Doug Steel sees Fonterra's $6.75 milk price forecast as difficult to achieve without an improvement in international product prices
The June PSI data is "more worrying from a growth perspective" and may bring into question the basis to an upside option for the RBNZ and its policy interest rate
16th Jul 18, 11:52am
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The June PSI data is "more worrying from a growth perspective" and may bring into question the basis to an upside option for the RBNZ and its policy interest rate
President Trump continued with plans to impose tariffs on an additional $200b of Chinese goods; equity markets, US bond yields, and commodity prices generally fell; AUD and NZD continued to press lower overnight
12th Jul 18, 8:10am
President Trump continued with plans to impose tariffs on an additional $200b of Chinese goods; equity markets, US bond yields, and commodity prices generally fell; AUD and NZD continued to press lower overnight
The sharpest fall in global dairy prices for over a year raises questions about whether the current level of forecast milk price for farmers this season will be achievable
4th Jul 18, 1:15pm
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The sharpest fall in global dairy prices for over a year raises questions about whether the current level of forecast milk price for farmers this season will be achievable
ASB economists expect Fonterra next week to give a 'healthy' milk price forecast of $6.50 or better for the new season
16th May 18, 3:35pm
ASB economists expect Fonterra next week to give a 'healthy' milk price forecast of $6.50 or better for the new season
NZ rates outperform US equivalents. Markets price next RBNZ hike in May 2019. Eyes on FOMC minutes seeking signals on how inflation signs are being read
20th Feb 18, 8:29am
NZ rates outperform US equivalents. Markets price next RBNZ hike in May 2019. Eyes on FOMC minutes seeking signals on how inflation signs are being read
Markets starting to accept the US Fed will be raising rates, ahead of Fed minutes release. Local rates follow. Local migration data unlikely to move markets
22nd Nov 17, 8:09am
Markets starting to accept the US Fed will be raising rates, ahead of Fed minutes release. Local rates follow. Local migration data unlikely to move markets
Equity markets rise in improving outlook. Local liquidity factors weigh on our rates with loan demand soft. Eyes on RBA speech
21st Nov 17, 7:49am
Equity markets rise in improving outlook. Local liquidity factors weigh on our rates with loan demand soft. Eyes on RBA speech
Yellen expresses frustration over 'lots of speeches'. UST 10yr pulls back from 2.40% level, curve flatter. Eyes on US CPI and AU wage data. Local rates little changed
15th Nov 17, 8:10am
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Yellen expresses frustration over 'lots of speeches'. UST 10yr pulls back from 2.40% level, curve flatter. Eyes on US CPI and AU wage data. Local rates little changed
Further weakness in the latest global dairy auction has prompted economists to drop their forecast milk price from $6.75 to as low as $6.30
18th Oct 17, 8:25am
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Further weakness in the latest global dairy auction has prompted economists to drop their forecast milk price from $6.75 to as low as $6.30
Oil price fall supports rise in bond prices, despite US PPI inflation. NZ yields fall across the curve in sympathy. Eyes on US, China and AU data
13th Oct 17, 8:23am
Oil price fall supports rise in bond prices, despite US PPI inflation. NZ yields fall across the curve in sympathy. Eyes on US, China and AU data
GBP has had a wild ride overnight on the ebb and flow of Brexit talk headlines; NZD and AUD have performing strongly; US dollar index currently sits flat on the day, halting a four day decline
13th Oct 17, 8:13am
GBP has had a wild ride overnight on the ebb and flow of Brexit talk headlines; NZD and AUD have performing strongly; US dollar index currently sits flat on the day, halting a four day decline
Local rates will meander sideways until next Government is revealed. US Fed decision awaits US CPI reading, most analysts expect a December rise
11th Oct 17, 9:05am
Local rates will meander sideways until next Government is revealed. US Fed decision awaits US CPI reading, most analysts expect a December rise
USD traded lower overnight, down moderately against all majors; European currencies rose overnight, reflecting a soft USD; NZD has generally underperformed, up just 0.1% against a weaker USD
11th Oct 17, 8:01am
USD traded lower overnight, down moderately against all majors; European currencies rose overnight, reflecting a soft USD; NZD has generally underperformed, up just 0.1% against a weaker USD
European 10yr bond yields ease 1-3 bps; local rates movements all within a basis point across the swap curve; NZ government bond yields did push 2 to 3.5 basis points higher across the curve
10th Oct 17, 8:03am
European 10yr bond yields ease 1-3 bps; local rates movements all within a basis point across the swap curve; NZ government bond yields did push 2 to 3.5 basis points higher across the curve
NZDUSD opens this morning around 0.7070, while NZDAUD sits close to 0.9110; GBP gained some support; EUR up 0.2% to close at 1.1750
10th Oct 17, 7:57am
NZDUSD opens this morning around 0.7070, while NZDAUD sits close to 0.9110; GBP gained some support; EUR up 0.2% to close at 1.1750
USD DXY index was up 0.7% as broad based gains were made on better than expected GDP and employment data; NZDUSD closed at the bottom of its recent 0.7190 to 0.7300 range; NZDAUD tested the 0.9070 support level to currently trade at 0.9110
31st Aug 17, 8:26am
USD DXY index was up 0.7% as broad based gains were made on better than expected GDP and employment data; NZDUSD closed at the bottom of its recent 0.7190 to 0.7300 range; NZDAUD tested the 0.9070 support level to currently trade at 0.9110
Eyes on US employment data, but S&P warns on US debt ceiling brinkmanship. Risk aversion eases. Local rates 'void of broad direction'
31st Aug 17, 8:21am
Eyes on US employment data, but S&P warns on US debt ceiling brinkmanship. Risk aversion eases. Local rates 'void of broad direction'
North Korea fired a missile towards Japan yesterday, which soured risk sentiment; risk sentiment recovered later in day as markets speculated that tensions will not escalate; NZD followed the global risk sentiment moves to trade at 0.7250 USD this morning
30th Aug 17, 8:25am
North Korea fired a missile towards Japan yesterday, which soured risk sentiment; risk sentiment recovered later in day as markets speculated that tensions will not escalate; NZD followed the global risk sentiment moves to trade at 0.7250 USD this morning
Markets fret about US debt ceiling, North Korea, US tax reform. And adopt a risk off view. Low long end yields continued recent NZ curve flattening
30th Aug 17, 8:08am
Markets fret about US debt ceiling, North Korea, US tax reform. And adopt a risk off view. Low long end yields continued recent NZ curve flattening