Stuart Ritson
US labour market data shows resilience despite the elevated policy uncertainty. Treasury yields sharply higher as Fed easing expectations are trimmed. Further signs of an easing in US-China trade tensions supports risk sentiment
9th Jun 25, 7:41am
US labour market data shows resilience despite the elevated policy uncertainty. Treasury yields sharply higher as Fed easing expectations are trimmed. Further signs of an easing in US-China trade tensions supports risk sentiment
Weaker than expected data supports rally in US treasuries. US Services ISM contracts. Equity markets less impacted with the S&P500 modestly higher and global stocks reaching a record high
5th Jun 25, 7:48am
Weaker than expected data supports rally in US treasuries. US Services ISM contracts. Equity markets less impacted with the S&P500 modestly higher and global stocks reaching a record high
US manufacturing ISM softer than expected reflecting the uncertain economic backdrop. Crude oil prices climbed more than 2% despite news that OPEC+ had agreed to increase oil output
3rd Jun 25, 7:28am
US manufacturing ISM softer than expected reflecting the uncertain economic backdrop. Crude oil prices climbed more than 2% despite news that OPEC+ had agreed to increase oil output
Further macro uncertainty after a US court invalidated Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs. An initial S&P500 rally following the decision faded. Soft US economic data brought lower US Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar
30th May 25, 7:43am
Further macro uncertainty after a US court invalidated Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs. An initial S&P500 rally following the decision faded. Soft US economic data brought lower US Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar
Trump threatened aggressive tariffs on the EU contributing to volatility in risk sensitive assets. S&P500 partially recovers from initial losses. Euro Stoxx down close to 2% and German bunds rally. US dollar broadly weaker
26th May 25, 7:20am
Trump threatened aggressive tariffs on the EU contributing to volatility in risk sensitive assets. S&P500 partially recovers from initial losses. Euro Stoxx down close to 2% and German bunds rally. US dollar broadly weaker
US PMIs resilient despite economic uncertainty. Euro-area PMIs soft. US dollar makes broad based gains. Modest increase in the NZGB borrowing programme forecast at the Budget
23rd May 25, 7:50am
US PMIs resilient despite economic uncertainty. Euro-area PMIs soft. US dollar makes broad based gains. Modest increase in the NZGB borrowing programme forecast at the Budget
Growing fiscal concerns and a weak UST 20-auction contributed to a large rise in long end treasury yields. Surge in yields weigh on US equities. UK CPI higher than expected. GBP/USD reached a 3-year high with less BOE easing priced
22nd May 25, 7:39am
Growing fiscal concerns and a weak UST 20-auction contributed to a large rise in long end treasury yields. Surge in yields weigh on US equities. UK CPI higher than expected. GBP/USD reached a 3-year high with less BOE easing priced
The RBA cut rates by 25bp to 3.85% as expected and moved to a more dovish stance. The market priced additional easing and NZD/AUD gained. A weak government bond auction contributed to a surge in long end JGB yields
21st May 25, 7:55am
The RBA cut rates by 25bp to 3.85% as expected and moved to a more dovish stance. The market priced additional easing and NZD/AUD gained. A weak government bond auction contributed to a surge in long end JGB yields
Initial weak risk sentiment linked to the US credit rating downgrade reverses. US 30-year yields reached 5.04%, the highest level since late 2023, before retracing. US dollar broadly weaker
20th May 25, 7:46am
Initial weak risk sentiment linked to the US credit rating downgrade reverses. US 30-year yields reached 5.04%, the highest level since late 2023, before retracing. US dollar broadly weaker
US consumer sentiment falls to historical lows, inflation expectations shoot higher. Trump's tax bill fails early in the process, a rare event. Moody's downgrades US credit rating. NZ inflation expectations rise; domestic rates market underperforms
19th May 25, 7:24am
US consumer sentiment falls to historical lows, inflation expectations shoot higher. Trump's tax bill fails early in the process, a rare event. Moody's downgrades US credit rating. NZ inflation expectations rise; domestic rates market underperforms
US asset markets look ahead to trade talks between the US and China. US claims ‘substantial progress’ in the negotiations. Chinese exports were surprisingly strong in April. Currency markets subdued overall
12th May 25, 7:24am
US asset markets look ahead to trade talks between the US and China. US claims ‘substantial progress’ in the negotiations. Chinese exports were surprisingly strong in April. Currency markets subdued overall
US Fed held rates steady and indicated the risk of higher inflation and unemployment had risen. More signs of a de-escalation in the trade war. China announced range of measures of economic support
8th May 25, 7:52am
US Fed held rates steady and indicated the risk of higher inflation and unemployment had risen. More signs of a de-escalation in the trade war. China announced range of measures of economic support
US economy contracts in Q1 amid a pre-tariff implementation surge in imports. Absolute moves in financial markets relatively small despite the economic data deluge
1st May 25, 7:47am
US economy contracts in Q1 amid a pre-tariff implementation surge in imports. Absolute moves in financial markets relatively small despite the economic data deluge
Positive risk sentiment continued despite conflicting news on tariff developments. The S&P advanced 0.7% extending its weekly gain to almost 5%. US treasury yields declined with limited economic data to provide direction
28th Apr 25, 7:29am
Positive risk sentiment continued despite conflicting news on tariff developments. The S&P advanced 0.7% extending its weekly gain to almost 5%. US treasury yields declined with limited economic data to provide direction
US dollar under pressure with higher UST yields not providing support. The USD index fell to a three year low. The Michigan consumer sentiment survey expectations index slumped to the lowest level since 1980 while inflation expectations continued to rise
14th Apr 25, 7:28am
US dollar under pressure with higher UST yields not providing support. The USD index fell to a three year low. The Michigan consumer sentiment survey expectations index slumped to the lowest level since 1980 while inflation expectations continued to rise