Economic growth
[updated]
The economy shrank in the three months to March, contrary to the expectations of the Reserve Bank, which had forecast 0.7% growth
16th Jun 22, 10:54am
203
The economy shrank in the three months to March, contrary to the expectations of the Reserve Bank, which had forecast 0.7% growth
NZIER's latest consensus forecasts show GDP growth in future years of only about 2%, while inflation's expected to now be more persistent
13th Jun 22, 2:33pm
8
NZIER's latest consensus forecasts show GDP growth in future years of only about 2%, while inflation's expected to now be more persistent
This week's release of March quarter GDP figures is likely to reflect the impact of the surge of Omicron - but the immediate prospects are for a future slowdown in any case
13th Jun 22, 10:16am
15
This week's release of March quarter GDP figures is likely to reflect the impact of the surge of Omicron - but the immediate prospects are for a future slowdown in any case
David Malpass urges policymakers to focus on five areas in order to avert a prolonged period of high inflation and low growth
8th Jun 22, 9:55am
8
David Malpass urges policymakers to focus on five areas in order to avert a prolonged period of high inflation and low growth
Alison Brook is wondering if we about to get a bullwhip sting, where an amplified demand surge is followed by an amplified plummeting of demand - and a global recession
18th May 22, 12:50pm
28
Alison Brook is wondering if we about to get a bullwhip sting, where an amplified demand surge is followed by an amplified plummeting of demand - and a global recession
Alison Brook isn't dismissing the stagflation fears. Our debt is skewed towards housing, so fast-rising interest rates could slam consumer demand and set the foundations in place for stagflation
16th Apr 22, 9:39am
71
Alison Brook isn't dismissing the stagflation fears. Our debt is skewed towards housing, so fast-rising interest rates could slam consumer demand and set the foundations in place for stagflation
The economy bounced back in the last quarter of 2021 from the lockdown blues - but the bounce was nowhere near as strong as economists thought it would be
17th Mar 22, 10:58am
33
The economy bounced back in the last quarter of 2021 from the lockdown blues - but the bounce was nowhere near as strong as economists thought it would be
This week's December quarter GDP figures will show a recovery from the sharp fall in September but all eyes will be on what the figures point to in the more problematic months ahead
14th Mar 22, 8:55am
4
This week's December quarter GDP figures will show a recovery from the sharp fall in September but all eyes will be on what the figures point to in the more problematic months ahead
Nouriel Roubini warns that the invasion of Ukraine will have steep stagflationary effects, even in otherwise strong economies
26th Feb 22, 10:12am
24
Nouriel Roubini warns that the invasion of Ukraine will have steep stagflationary effects, even in otherwise strong economies
Nouriel Roubini lists the policy, geopolitical, and systemic risks that investors will need to consider this year
9th Jan 22, 12:13pm
26
Nouriel Roubini lists the policy, geopolitical, and systemic risks that investors will need to consider this year
Country sees second largest ever quarterly fall in GDP - but the result shows increasing resilience in the face of lockdown restraints
16th Dec 21, 11:00am
25
Country sees second largest ever quarterly fall in GDP - but the result shows increasing resilience in the face of lockdown restraints
This week's GDP figures expected to show a drop - but by nothing like the sort of drop economists earlier expected
13th Dec 21, 10:18am
14
This week's GDP figures expected to show a drop - but by nothing like the sort of drop economists earlier expected
Reserve Bank wary of households' sensitivity to interest rate changes in a tightening environment
25th Nov 21, 7:37am
100
Reserve Bank wary of households' sensitivity to interest rate changes in a tightening environment
Alison Brook wonders if public policy makers have the patience to deleverage through a mix of cutting spending, reducing debt, transferring wealth and printing money to avoid a disastrous end to the debt supercycle
25th Oct 21, 10:00am
70
Alison Brook wonders if public policy makers have the patience to deleverage through a mix of cutting spending, reducing debt, transferring wealth and printing money to avoid a disastrous end to the debt supercycle
Yu Yongding considers the likely impact of the energy crisis and the Evergrande debacle on China's growth prospects
23rd Oct 21, 10:45am
15
Yu Yongding considers the likely impact of the energy crisis and the Evergrande debacle on China's growth prospects
Alison Brook wonders if persistently low interest rates may be doing more harm than good. They lead to debt accumulation, increasing asset prices, and ultimately limit the economy's ability to grow
2nd Oct 21, 9:55am
51
Alison Brook wonders if persistently low interest rates may be doing more harm than good. They lead to debt accumulation, increasing asset prices, and ultimately limit the economy's ability to grow
The 2.8% June quarter GDP rise beat market expectations of 1.2% and was up from a revised 1.4% in March
16th Sep 21, 11:01am
69
The 2.8% June quarter GDP rise beat market expectations of 1.2% and was up from a revised 1.4% in March
Another big lockdown has once again changed the economic picture enormously, but GDP figures for the past quarter will still tell us some important things
13th Sep 21, 10:35am
2
Another big lockdown has once again changed the economic picture enormously, but GDP figures for the past quarter will still tell us some important things
Alison Brook says that to reverse our poor trade performance over the past 20 years, we need to set goals to build private savings, and champion the benefits of trade
1st Sep 21, 8:10am
Alison Brook says that to reverse our poor trade performance over the past 20 years, we need to set goals to build private savings, and champion the benefits of trade
Yu Yongding predicts that, even with looser fiscal and monetary policy, China's economic performance will disappoint
26th Aug 21, 11:27am
6
Yu Yongding predicts that, even with looser fiscal and monetary policy, China's economic performance will disappoint
With our working age population past its peak, immigration stunted, and scepticism towards adopting technology for productivity, Alison Brook suggests New Zealand will struggle to expand its economic base and living standards
7th Aug 21, 9:17am
34
With our working age population past its peak, immigration stunted, and scepticism towards adopting technology for productivity, Alison Brook suggests New Zealand will struggle to expand its economic base and living standards
Willem Buiter offers an estimate of the remaining US output gap in light of the pandemic's lingering effects
29th Jul 21, 9:43am
Willem Buiter offers an estimate of the remaining US output gap in light of the pandemic's lingering effects
Fitch Solutions says the New Zealand economy is on the path of a strong recovery
18th Jun 21, 11:53am
37
Fitch Solutions says the New Zealand economy is on the path of a strong recovery
ANZ economists now forecast the Reserve Bank will start increasing the Official Cash Rate in February next year following the stunning 1.6% GDP rise for the March quarter
17th Jun 21, 11:05am
78
ANZ economists now forecast the Reserve Bank will start increasing the Official Cash Rate in February next year following the stunning 1.6% GDP rise for the March quarter
Economists have been upwardly adjusting their economic forecasts in recent days in the face of stronger-than-expected data and the major bank economists now see first quarter GDP producing a positive figure - IE economic growth
14th Jun 21, 9:57am
11
Economists have been upwardly adjusting their economic forecasts in recent days in the face of stronger-than-expected data and the major bank economists now see first quarter GDP producing a positive figure - IE economic growth