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The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Friday, September 4, 2015

Currencies
The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Friday, September 4, 2015

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.6395 (mid-rate) this morning.

Yesterday Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade deficit of A$2.46 billion in July – a 19% increase on June. Retail sales in Australia were down a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in July, well shy of forecasts for an increase of 0.4%.

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits rose more than expected in the week ended August 29th. Initial jobless claims climbed to 282,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level of 270,000.

The US Trade Deficit was notably narrower in the month of July coming in at USD 41.9 billion. This was down from a revised USD45.2 billion in June. The deficit was the smallest since February.

Investors will now shift their focus to the release of the U.S. Employment report (Non Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate) for August, released tonight. The result may prove crucial to the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates in September.

The European Central Bank left its interest rates unchanged overnight as recent data suggests that economic recovery is continuing, albeit at a sluggish pace, while lower oil prices, stronger euro and the Chinese slowdown pose risks to the outlook.

The ECB said it was ready to extend its quantitative easing programme beyond the September 2016 deadline, if needed.

British services sector expanded at its weakest rate in over two years, casting doubt about sustainability of economic growth into third quarter.

Global equity markets are higher except China & Hong Kong : Dow +0.24%, S&P 500 +0.19%, FTSE +1.82%, DAX +2.68%, CAC +2.17%, Nikkei +0.48%, Shanghai -0.20%, Hang Seng -1.2%

Gold prices are down $8 trading at  $1,125 an ounce, WTI Crude Oil has gained 1.3% currently trading at $46.78 a barrel.

Indicative mid rates:

  NZDUSD           0.6395        0.9%
  NZDEUR           0.5750        2.0%
  NZDGBP           0.4190        1.2%
  NZDJPY             76.70          0.7%
  NZDAUD           0.9115        1.1%
  NZDCAD           0.8430         0.2%


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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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