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The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Thursday, October 22, 2015

Currencies
The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Thursday, October 22, 2015

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.6730 (mid-rate) this morning.

Australian Leading Index fell 0.4% for the month of August, following the 0.3% increase in July.

Interestingly though during the six-month period through August, the leading economic index decreased 1.2%, which is a reversal from the growth of 1.1% (about a 2.1% annual rate) over the previous six months.

Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 114.5 billion yen in September - a decline of 88.1% from the previous month! The headline figure was well shy of forecasts for a surplus of 87.0 billion yen following the 569.4 billion yen shortfall in August. The adjusted trade balance showed a deficit of 355.7 billion yen, missing forecasts for a shortfall of 63.4 billion yen following the downwardly revised 373.5 billion yen shortfall in August (originally -358.8 billion yen).

As expected, the Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%. Following the announcement, the loonie pared its recent gains against its major rivals - NZD/CAD up 0.8%.

Central banks of China and the U.K. agreed to extend the existing reciprocal sterling/renminbi currency swap line for a further three years. The maximum value of the swap line was increased to RMB 350 billion from RMB 200 billion, when the original 3-year swap was agreed in June 2013.

Data Releases overnight include: UK Retail Sales, ECB Official Cash Rate announcement and ECB Press Conference, US Unemployment Claims, and US Existing Home Sales

Global equity markets are mixed : Dow +0.03%, S&P 500 -0.34%, FTSE +0.05%, DAX +0.89%, CAC +0.46%, Nikkei +1.91%, Hang Seng -0.38% Shanghai -3.06%.

Gold prices are down 0.6% at $1167 an ounce, WTI Crude Oil is down 0.3% at $45.24 a barrel.

Indicative mid-rate pricing:

NZDUSD           0.6730       -0.2%
NZDEUR           0.5931       -0.3%
NZDGBP           0.4635        0.0%
NZDJPY             80.74         -0.1%
NZDAUD           0.9316        0.2%
NZDCAD           0.8823        0.8%


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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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