The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Friday, September 29, 2017

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.7233 (mid-rate) this morning.

The NZD finishes the week down 96 points or 1.3% from Monday’s open, but is relatively unchanged with the majors overnight.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand yesterday morning kept the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 1.75% and reiterated the view that monetary policy would remain accommodative for a considerable period.

Excellent German Consumer Sentiment will not continue unabated in September. GfK consumer climate for October fell to 10.8 points, the first drop since March, but still near record highs. Both income expectations and propensity to buy decreased. On the other hand, economic expectations increased slightly.

U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in the Q2 of 2017 and by 1.2% in Q1 2017 according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In the week ending September 23, the advance figure for U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Initial Claims was 272,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 259,000 to 260,000. The 4-week moving average was 277,750 which is the highest level for this average since February 6, 2016 when it was also at 277,750. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma impacted this week's claims.

U.S. Preliminary Wholesale Inventories rose to 1.0% in September compared with a 0.6% rise in August. Market expectation was for a 0.4% rise. When inventories rise companies are less likely to purchase goods to replenish stock and therefore rising inventories is negative for the currency.

Global equity markets are higher except China:  Dow +0.22%, S&P 500 +0.13%, FTSE +0.13%, DAX +0.37%, CAC +0.22%, Nikkei +0.47%, Shanghai -0.17%.

Gold prices are up $3 or 0.2% trading at $1,287 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices plunged 1.3% trading at $51.45 a barrel.

Current indicative rates:

NZDUSD    0.7233     0.2%
NZDEUR    0.6133     -0.1%
NZDGBP    0.5381     -0.1%
NZDJPY      81.31      0.0%
NZDAUD    0.9207     0.2%
NZDCAD    0.8983    -0.2%
GBPNZD    1.8581    -0.1%

Upcoming Data releases (NZST):

  • 10:45am - NZD - Building Consents m/m

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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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