The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Monday, October 2, 2017

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.7203 (mid-rate) this morning.

A quiet end to the quarter saw the NZD trade tight ranges against all its rivals. The NZDUSD closed out the week just above 0.7200 down nearly 2% since the September 24th election.

Friday’s US economic data releases which were once again mixed, had little effect on dollar. Stronger than expected Chicago PMI data was countered by disappointing personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and consumer sentiment reports. The Chicago business barometer spiked to 65.2 in September from 58.9 in August surprising economists who had tipped the index to dip to 58.5. The PCE index which had been forecast to rise to 0.2 in September up from 0.1 in August, came up short with a 0.1 reading, while consumer sentiment deteriorated by slightly more than previously estimated in September with the index falling to 95.1 from the preliminary reading of 95.3.

End of month European data releases disappointed with German retail sales and European flash inflation data releases printing below their respective forecasts. German retail sales decreased by 0.4% (exp +0.5%) in August, while Euro-zone inflation remained at 1.5% in September. Economists had expected inflation to edge up to 1.6%.

The UK gross domestic product expanded in line with forecasts, growing 0.3% in Q2 while consumer confidence in the UK showed a slight improvement with the index reading -9 for September ahead of the forecast -11 reading and up from August’s -10 result.

Expect a quiet start with the majority of Australia enjoying a long weekend, and an absence of any local economic data releases.

Global equity markets closed out the week on the rise - Dow +0.11%, S&P 500 +0.37%, FTSE +0.68%, DAX +0.98%, CAC +0.68%, Nikkei -0.03%, Shanghai +0.28%.

Gold prices edged lower on Friday closing out the week at $1,279 an ounce, WTI Crude Oil was little changed on Friday, closing out the week at $51.67 a barrel.

Current indicative rates:

NZDUSD    0.7211     -0.3%
NZDEUR    0.6115     -0.3%
NZDGBP    0.5389      0.1%
NZDJPY      81.25      -0.1%
NZDAUD    0.9205      0.0%
NZDCAD    0.8997      0.2%
GBPNZD    1.8556     -0.1%

Upcoming Data releases (NZST):

  • No Local data Releases
  • Australian Bank Holiday

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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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