The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Friday, November 30, 2018

The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Friday, November 30, 2018

By Dan Bell

The Kiwi opens at 0.6849.

FED FOMC minutes from the November 8 meeting just out:
- Almost all policy makers say rate hike warranted ‘fairly soon’.
- Many said it might be appropriate at some upcoming meetings to begin putting greater emphasis on evaluating incoming data.
Nothing else of note, and very little movement initially from it.

Yesterday the big news was the USD sell off after Powell’s speech, which stole some of the Meeting minutes thunder, with the highlight being the comment that they are just below the neutral rate. As the Market digested this yesterday the USD came back a little, as traders wondered if it got a touch ahead of itself.  Previously the Fed has stated that it is likely to go a bit above neutral anyway, so if the neutral rate is circa 2.5-3.5%, by definition we are indeed just below that. One hike this year and four next year still only takes us to a 3.5% Federal Funds rate, so maybe the comment was not as dovish, and not as big a change in the Feds thinking as it appears.

NZ Business confidence came out at -37.1, the same as last time. At the extremes this was really market moving, but for now has fallen somewhat to the background.

Australian Private Capital Expenditure missed, but it is a volatile data point, and there was little reaction.

Teresa May is out saying the analysis shows the negotiated Brexit Deal is the best deal, and the EU has made it clear it is the only deal. A fairly healthy dose of scaremongering one expects, and a few more headlines like this from May before the December 11th vote will be no surprise.

Nothing too major on the economic calendar for the weekend.

Global equity markets are mixed, Dow -0.24%, S&P 500 -0.19%, FTSE +0.49%, DAX -0.01%, CAC +0.46%, Nikkei +0.39%, Shanghai -1.32%.

Gold prices are up 0.2% trading at $1,224 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices have bounced from their lows, currently up 0.2% on this time yesterday trading at $51.88 a barrel.

Current indicative rates:

NZDUSD 0.6879 1.3%
NZDEUR  0.6045 0.6%
NZDGBP 0.5358 0.6%
NZDJPY 78.11 1.1%
NZDAUD 0.9398 -0.1%
NZDCAD 0.9115 1.0%
GBPNZD 1.8664 -0.6%

Upcoming Data releases (NZST):

  • 13:00 - ANZ Business Confidence

 

 

 

 

 

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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at xe money transfer in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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USD 
NZD
End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

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