Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Avanti Finance advised some rate changes today, with their floating rate rising +25 bps to 9.15%. They also advised that they have trimmed the upper limit of their car loan rate range to 10.70% - 24.20% (was 26.20%) and shifted up their secured personal loan rates slightly to 16.50% - 25.70% (was 16.25% - 25.45%)
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here today.
A VERY MIXED BAG
ANZ released some internal transaction data today, a new series of June data that tracks merchant spending. It showed "tourism-related spending continues to be, for the most part, significantly stronger than a year ago; Housing-related spending continues to be under pressure, though there’s some evidence DIY is holding up; Discretionary spending is mixed; Clothing retail is struggling; Counter-cyclical retail is outperforming as households look to cut costs; Goods retail is a mixed bag. Price changes dominate some categories, eg fuel (lower prices) and insurance (higher prices); Business services are also mixed. Spending on printing is well down; In the services space, education is an outperformer as foreign students make a comeback; and the relative decline of online shopping is evident in courier services."
BUSINESS RECOVERY & ADAPTION
ANZ has established a fund of $250 mln to support a new low-interest lending initiative for business customers impacted by extreme weather events "now and into the future". The fund will be available initially to customers impacted by the North Island extreme weather events (NIWE) and will be extended to provide support for businesses impacted by future adverse weather events as these increase keep coming due to climate change. ANZ's scheme is in addition to the Government’s NIWE Loan Guarantee Scheme and Primary Producer Finance Scheme. ANZ's scheme allows customers to borrow up to $300,000 at a special fixed rate of 3.49% for three years. The loan can be used to replace assets and rebuild.
COUNTDOWN TO REBRAND AS WOOLWORTHS
Woolworths NZ says its Countdown supermarkets will rebrand to use the Woolworths name from 2024. A "transformation programme" will also include a refreshed loyalty programme with the launch of Everyday Rewards, and some $400 million investment planned over the next three years to renew the store network, with a focus on older stores. Woolworths is also promising more convenient eCommerce shopping options, a deeper connection to grassroots community activities, and further commitment to fruit and vegetables with a state-of-the-art Christchurch Fresh Distribution Centre opening in 2024, alongside the Auckland Fresh Distribution Centre which opened in 2022.
WAITING
Yes, this is a shortish version today. There are only minimal items on the economic calendar, ahead of tomorrow when we will get the next dairy price update (when prices are "expected" to rise +1.9% in an unusual change), and the all-important Q2 CPI data (where inflation is "expected" to recede marginally to 5.9% from a year ago, and running in the March to June period at a 4% annualised rate).
AUSSIE RATE HOLD MAY NOT BE REPEATED
In Australia, their central bank released the minutes of its meeting on Tuesday two weeks ago (what takes them so long?) and they flagged further rate increases might be needed, but "this depended on how the economy and inflation evolve" - which includes their June-quarter inflation will be reported on July 26. The sense is that the July 'hold' might be be the unusual bit as they wait for the impact of all their prior rises.
SWAPS ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged again at 5.65% and still +15 bps above the 5.50% OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp from yesterday at 3.98%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.68%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged from this time yesterday at 4.55%, but still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix which also fell -1 bp to 4.51%. The UST 10 year yield has fallen back by -1 bp to just on 3.80%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The S&P500 ended its Monday trade on Wall Street up +0.4%. Tokyo has started its Tuesday trade up +0.3%. But Hong Kong returned after the typhoon trading halt in a bad mood, and is down -1.7% in their early trade. Shanghai is down almost -0.5% at their open. The ASX200 is down -0.5% in afternoon trade. The NZX50 is down -0.2% in late trade.
GOLD ON HOLD
In early Asian trade, gold is little-changed from yesterday, up a mere +US$2 at US$1955/oz. Earlier it closed in New York at US$1955/oz too, and earlier still in London at US$1950/oz. So things are quiet on this front.
NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is about -¼c lower, now at just on 63.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are almost -½c lower at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are soft at 56.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is down almost -50 bps at 70.5.
BITCOIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED
The bitcoin price is virtually unchanged from this time yesterday at US$30,221 with less than a -0.1% net adjustment. You have to wonder where all the so-called TradFin interest went. Volatility has been modest at just under +/- 1.1%.
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51 Comments
Waiting for ASB to offer up the same, so we can hopefully get some funds to relocate our farm entrance and stock yard, both of which are still inaccessible by truck. Every time we think it's drying out there's yet another heavy bout of rain, and everything turns to mud again.
46% of "high income households" in Aussie claim they would struggle with an unexpected expense of around a few thousand dollars. Not much different from middle income h'holds, but rises to 64% for low-income h'holds.
Make of it what you will.
https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1681155007859793925
On one hand there’s her 6 million dollar property portfolio, and on the other hand, her desire to see tens of thousands of workers made unemployed in pursuit of a 4.5% jobless rate
Yes. But there's also the high-income h'holds with million dollar abodes who claim they would struggle to afford the clean-up after the spa pool overflows into the home while they're down at the shopping.
Doesn't add up.
Scary stuff.
In the 2022–23 financial year, 2,170 construction businesses have gone into administration, 69 percent more than in 2021–22 .
Overall, 7,764 insolvencies have been recorded in 2022–23, 58 percent higher than the previous year, including 1,086 in accommodation and food services, and 449 in manufacturing, a 148 percent increase
These stats do not reveal the full scale of the damage. For example, when Porter Davis fell over in March 2023, nearly 1,700 homebuyers were affected.
Visited a couple of factories in the past couple of weeks. One has just dropped overtime for the first time in two years. The second has dropped a shift each week and has also massively shrunk their lead time as they deliver on the backlog but are not receiving enough orders to fill that backlog.
Make of it what you will.
These stats do not reveal the full scale of the damage
That's right, we have little additional info. We dont know if these are substantive businesses or paper businesses, and historically the current numbers are still lower than for most of the 2010s.
Likely though, the sum total isn't very high, because you would expect some sort of commensurate change to employment figures.
I imagine the Greens policy might be Chris Trotter column territory?
I disagree with Nationals latest episode of landlord-enriching, explosive brain flatulence, but to your point there are some serious implications to what the Greens propose that are worthy of discussion.
Dont tarnish the good name of this site likening it to Stuff or the Herald however, that I object to.
Aside from that what is of relief is the absence on here so far for this election run up of the the coven of leftist posters that spring up, enrol in a lump, post, admire, head nod and up tick one another with all the gay abandon & skill set of any adolescent. Straining the memory here, but from 2021 some were Jolly Albert, Fat Penguin and the leader DCWetc. Hope it lasts.
Sycophantic, far too much of it. You would almost start to wonder if it’s in the realm of lucre. Some might recall that at the first lockdown podium lecture by PM Ardern, the very first question from the media present was something like - how much is the package for the media going to be and when are we going to get it.
"You have to wonder where all the so-called TradFin interest went."
Ever since the XRP decision came to light, interest in BTC has dwindled. ETH is still doing fairly well, but the huge moves are in alt coins. So I say money is rotating out of BTC (short term only - ETF decision are in August) into higher risk moves.
Some of my gains today:
LOOT = +270% (my highest ever gain on one token since 2019)
EXTRA = +47%
OpenExchange = +34%
Unibot -= +18%
Don't forget that XRP itself jumped 90% almost right after the court decision.
With that in mind, even the 85% year to date gains of BTC look small.
Have noticed more rentals in north Auckland too. A couple around $1,000 p.w.. 3/4bdr. These would have gone easily last year but are sitting on the market for weeks.
Have noticed a few batches being rented too.
Also noticed a new terraced house from Matakana go on the market. Would need to top up a fair bit of it has debt behind it.
Luxon says he’s ready for years in opposition 😂
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-labour-laughs-as-c…
Noted but not that surprising as he isn’t exactly a polished orator…
Question for you HM… which rancid government do you think will cause more damage if elected… the question is framed in that - and the answer must reflect - the government would be made up of either one of two coalitions (1) Labour, Greens, TPM (2) National, Act.
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