A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; business sentiments lifts slightly, ComCom active, lending picks up, savers chase higher interest rates, swaps soft, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Nothing to report.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
WBS has raised its TD rates today by +10 bps. But that takes their one year rate to 6.15% now.

'RUNNING AN ORANGE LIGHT'
According to the ANZ survey, Business confidence lifted another 5 points in July but is still negative although the July level is the highest since September 2021. The 'own activity' measure eased 2 points to +1. The economy is slowing, but certainly not coming to a sudden stop, notes ANZ. Inflation indicators mostly crept slightly lower, but cost expectations lifted, and the proportion of firms expecting to raise wages increased.

AUSSIE GIANT GETS NZ REGULATOR TO FINE LOCAL OPERATOR
The Commerce Commission has won a $500,000 penalty against the Mitre10 MEGA operator in Tauranga for trying to block a Bunnings Warehouse from opening nearby. This is a big win for the giant Australian Bunnings group (revenue AU$18 mln and part of the Wesfarmers Group. revenue AU$31 bln) against the very much smaller individual local Mitre10 local business (probably revenue of ~$175 mln). It will enable Bunnings to pick them off one-by-one.

REGULATING BANK TRANSFERS
In more activity from the Commerce Commission, they are eyeing regulation to boost options for making in-person payments directly between bank accounts. They say regulating bank transfers could level the playing field for new entrants to offer services for making in-person bank transfers.

RBNZ, TREASURY CONSULTING ON INCOMING DEPOSIT INSURANCE SCHEME
Treasury and the Reserve Bank have opened consultation on the funding approach and levies for the incoming bank deposit insurance scheme. Set to launch late next year, the scheme will mean that, in the event of a deposit taker failure, depositors will be eligible for compensation up to $100,000 per depositor, per institution. The scheme will be funded by an industry levy set by the Minister of Finance. Treasury says its first consultation focuses on the approach to building the Depositor Compensation Scheme fund, the estimated costs of the fund, determining a target size of the fund, if any, and a timeframe for reaching any target. The Reserve Bank says taking a proportionate approach to regulation means balancing its costs and benefits for deposit takers and the public. Treasury's consultation paper is here, the Reserve Bank's is here. And there's more on deposit insurance in our Of Interest podcast here.

TWO NEW TSB DIRECTORS
TSB has named Darren Linton and Liana Poutu as new directors. Linton is the CEO of GoSee and ex-CEO of Yellow NZ. Poutu is the representative on the board for TSB's shareholder, the Toi Foundation. The two new directors follow the retirements of Dion Tuuta, Anne Blackburn, Harvey Dunlop and Peter Dalziel. Other board members include chairman Mark Darrow, deputy chairman Mike Schubert, Mel Templeton, Natalie Pearce and Kevin McDonald.

MORE LENDING BUT SLOWER
Mortgage balances rose to $350 bln in June, (a new record high) with banks upping their share by +$1.26 bln and non-banks conceding -$85 mln. That is twice as fast a rise as in April. But year on year, the overall percentage rise was +3.1% the lowest such gain since November 2011. Banks also raised their loan books with business by +$0.5 bln and with the rural sector by +$0.3 bln. More here.

HIGHER INTEREST HONEYPOT
On the other side of the ledger, customer deposits rose +3.1% as well, to $437.4 bln (not a record high), of which $232.8 bln was in household deposits (which was a record high). Household term deposits were up +$2 bln or more per month for the fourth month in a row to $116.8 bln, and up +$25.6 bln in a year. But half that is because money has moved out of transaction balances (-$10.2 bln) and savings accounts (-$5.0 bln). Higher interest rates continue to motivate savers.

THE NEXT LIST IS OUT
The Labour Party list is out for the 2023 Election today. Review here.

CHINA'S FACTORIES STILL CONTRACTING, SERVICES EXPANSION MINIMAL
China's official factory PMI survey contracted the least in July in the last four months of contraction (49.3). But their official services PMI fell to its weakest level of the year, now with only a tame expansion (51.5). The private Caixin version is out tomorrow for factories, and Thursday for services.

SWAPS A BIT SOFTER
Wholesale swap rates are probably a bit softer today. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.67% and now +17 bps above the 5.50% OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps from this morning at 4.01%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 2.71%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -7 bps from this morning at 4.73%, and still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix which was down -10 bps at 4.63%. The UST 10 year yield is up +2 bps from this morning at 3.98% today.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
The NZX50 is up +0.3% late in its Monday session. The ASX200 is unchanged in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.5% in morning trade. Hong Kong is up +1.5% today in early trade. Shanghai is up +0.6%. This is built on imminent stimulus announcements in Beijing and it is surprising that the ASX200 isn't reacting in advance. The S&P500 futures are up +0.4% in weekend trade.

GOLD STEPS BACK AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1956/oz and down -US$3 from where we opened this morning

NZD MARGINALLY HIGHER
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Friday but up +20 bps from this morning's open, now at just on 61.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are off slightly at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we firmish at 56.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is up slightly to 69.9.

BITCOIN STILL STUCK
The bitcoin price is little-changed again from where we opened this morning, now at US$29,456 which is up a minor +0.2%. Volatility has remained low at just over +/- 0.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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