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American data eases; Country Garden warns of default; Toyota to build 10 mln+ vehicles in 2023; EU inflation sticky; Aussie power stress imminent; UST 10yr 4.12%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 59.7 USc; TWI-5 = 68.6

Economy / news
American data eases; Country Garden warns of default; Toyota to build 10 mln+ vehicles in 2023; EU inflation sticky; Aussie power stress imminent; UST 10yr 4.12%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 59.7 USc; TWI-5 = 68.6

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news there are worries the Aussie energy transition is falling short and they could face tough choices as early as this summer.

But first, US mortgage applications rose +2.3% last week from the prior week and mortgage interest rates held steady at a very high 7.31% plus points. It was their first rise in six weeks and doesn't really interrupt the lower track this market has been on.

US pending home sales also ticked a minor +0.9% higher in July from June (in just a 'noisy' change) to be -14% lower than a year ago.

The pre-cursor report to the Saturday (NZT) non-farm payrolls report, the ADP employment report, revealed a +177,000 jobs gain by private employers for August. This was slightly less than the +195,000 expected. They said this level is consistent with the pace of job creation before the pandemic. After two years of exceptional gains tied to the recovery, they are moving toward more sustainable growth in pay and employment as the economic effects of the pandemic recede. +170,000 more jobs are expected for the non-farm payrolls report.

The second estimate of US Q2-2023 economic growth was market down slightly to an annualised +2.1% from the first estimate of +2.4% growth. In Q1-2023 the growth rate recorded was +2.0%. This latest markdown was because both consumers and government spent slightly less in the period than originally estimated. There will be a third and 'final' estimate in about a month. This same data release has PCE inflation running at +2.5%, well down from the Q1 rate of +4.1%.

In China, things for Country Garden just get worse. They announced a gigantic loss today and warned of default (pg9). The country's overall property crisis is deepening.

And elsewhere we have been noting the rise and rise of the Chinese dairy industry. But there are limits and China seems to be bumping up against them now. Demand for meat and dairy is increasing the need for production of feed grains as arable land grows scarce.

Japanese consumer confidence dipped marginally in August when a continuing improvement was expected. Prior to July it had risen for eight straight months. The dip was minor however.

And staying in Japan, Toyota told suppliers it may produce more than 10 mln vehicles in 2023, a new global record, 3.4 mln in Japan and 6.8 mln overseas. And this is despite a -15% fall in production of its vehicles in China. (Although they have higher revenue, Volkswagen Group produces about 9 mln vehicles per year.)

The German CPI inflation rate is proving to stubbornly high, not continuing the fall we saw from January to April. For four months now it has held at +6.1% and a long way higher than policy makers need it to be. Other countries around it are reporting similar stories for August. This sticky inflation problem has investors betting that the ECB will raise rates again soon. Their next meeting is in about two weeks.

In Australia, their energy regulator says this summer could be hotter than normal and electricity demand higher than planned. Major stress looms for South Australia and Victoria. A hot dry summer with low wind, along with the failure to replace ageing coal plants with clean power fast enough, could bring widespread blackouts at a time of heat stress. This is a far grimmer assessment of what lies ahead than their last review six months ago.

Australia's July monthly inflation indicator rose 4.9% from a year ago, a rate that is down from 5.4% in June. Annual price rises continue to ease from the peak of 8.4% in December 2022. Even though they came in lower than expected, the July levels are still far higher than the RBA needs them to be, but it will probably lock in a rate pause there because it is going in the right direction.

And staying in Australia, their residential building consents fell at an -8.1% rate in July from June to be down -10.6% from a year ago. The private sector components are more negative than the overall results. Interestingly, these are falling faster recently than in New Zealand and both are fast month-on-month falls.

The UST 10yr yield will start today at 4.12%, unchanged from this time yesterday. Their key 2-10 yield curve is unchanged at -77 bps. But their 1-5 curve inversion is a much shallower at -114 bps. But their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is little-changed at -128 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.03% and down -4 bps from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.60%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.00% and down -6 bps.

Wall Street is up +0.4% on the S&P500 today. Overnight, European markets were all little-changed at +/- 0.1%. Yesterday, Tokyo ended up +0.3%. But both Hong Kong and Shanghai ended essentially unchanged. The ASX200 ended its Wednesday session up a strong +1.2% while the NZX50 slipped a very minor -0.1%.

The price of gold will start today at US$1944/oz and up another +US$7 from yesterday.

And oil prices are +50 USc higher at just under US$81.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now at US$85/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today fractionally firmer than yesterday at just on 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 54.7 euro cents. That all means the TWI-5 is still at 68.6 and essentially unchanged.

The bitcoin price has fallen back somewhat today after yesterday's big jump and is now at US$27,164 which is down -2.6% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.8%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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124 Comments

NZ’s current account now worst in the OECD and worse than the GFC

https://thefacts.nz/economy/current-account/

Up
24

Any why would any one be surprised. 

We are spending like a drunken sailor as if there is no tomorrow. 

God save NZ 

Up
17

What we need are tax cuts so we can spend even more. And pay for it by gambling overseas, and building huge houses on productive land to sell to foreigners. Let's raid the ETS while we are at it, so we can pay more in the future to buy overseas car on credits.

Up
25

What is undeniable is that Labour has been an absolute economic nightmare.

Can National fix it?  Not sure.  Can they do worse?  Probably not.

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19

Least worst option. Perhaps.

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7

Selling more or NZ's assets (houses + land) overseas and funneling more money to landlords sure ain't a step forwards.

Oh that's right, they want to get back on track. Back to a time when landlords were making out like robber barons, with houses earning more than the people living in them.

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18

LOL landlords are getting shafted at the moment but as you are obviously not one you could not know.  Still, I guess motels will make the healthy homes standard, so there's that :).

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2

oh please, Im pretty sure its the landlords doing the shafting

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4

Your ignorance with showing, anyone with basic maths knows the numbers don’t add up as a landlord at the moment.

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2

We’ll I guess the answer to that is don’t be a landlord. 

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5

They are doing gods work you know.

Up
0

The numbers never added up. Buying rental property was all predicated on infinite capital gain.

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6

Reality is that tax cuts only changes WHO is spending that money. 

SB... Why do u think it creates new spending ???

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1

I'm starting to feel sorry for Nat if they win the election.  How do you tell Kiwis that the Govt has maxed out their credit cards and we are in for lean times.

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14

That's terrible, NZ worst of the 42 countries   :-(    Can't blame Covid either, because the other countries ahead also had to deal with Covid.  This is sadly squarely on Labour.

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25

Not really a surprise. Since the introduction of the 'free market' economic policies in 1984 successive governments have exported 98% of our manufacturing industry and the jobs that went with it, are ideologically averse to supporting any sort of support to rebuild it, are blind to the lessons from COVID on our over reliance on global supply chains and national resilience, and think importing 10s of thousands of cheap labour and tourists is an effective fix.

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27

One of our larger fishing firms only has one boat now, and the rest of their quota is being fished by foreigners, on foreign boats, being processed on the boats. So maybe 5 cents in the dollar is going through NZ.

But now you'd be hard pressed to bring it back onshore

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24

Would that be the one that Maori have a large interest in?

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8

Remember all those fishing training  schemes and so on…all M youth were about to be fisherman, fishing their own quota. 

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0

So you would be happy to have continued paying inflated prices to protected privlaged NZ businesses, rendering NZ totally uncompetitive globally.

 

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0

Yes I would and I would have every globalist who sold our country down the river beaten severely with nightsticks for proposing any other selling out.

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10

So you would be happy to have continued paying inflated prices to protected privlaged NZ businesses, rendering NZ totally uncompetitive globally.

The problem is that what's actually happened is much of the increased benefit, either via revenue or margin, isn't directly benefitting NZ anymore. We are instead just a franchise arm of a much larger machine.

The multi-nats have deep pockets and are thinking in terms of multiple decades or even centuries. NZ could have likely funded the same sort of expansion and investment themselves, but we only seem to think in 3-6 year periods. Now most of the easy stuff has already been cut up and sold off.

Up
5

What manufacturing industries are you talking about Murray?  NZ has never had any, like... never.  Tiny, tiny manufactures like Tait etc are niche at best.  Our main "industries" in the 70's were the local composition of foreign products (cars and trucks mostly).

We have always been a primary produce exporter, and with the advent of jet travel a tourist destination, that's it.

Very recently we have had some brief dabbles with tech startups but these are quickly moved off shore.

We have not made more of location-independent opportunities such as becoming a research base for science, and we have a green power supply so our ESG creds for hosting data centres etc should be an advantage.  Our closeness to silicon valley (there is a 4 hour working day overlap) and our significantly cheaper day rate is another opportunity(I know of two NZ software houses currently making good money at this).

Up
7

Just one example, a fairly recent one at that; where are F&P's whiteware manufactured now?

Are you saying it is too hard and we should never try? Are you saying there is nothing we can do to improve our national resilience and be less dependent on global supply chains, especially in times of crisis?

What then would you do?

Where did places like America, Japan, Taiwan and China start from?

Up
7

"Where did places like America, Japan, Taiwan and China start from?" their massive domestic market funding their scale & innovation leading to competitive advantage.

I worked in NZ mfg for 45years, both SMEs & multinational local divisions, mainly chemical process & FMCGs. I watched their consolidation since the 1980's (removal of import protection & subsidies) & offshoring since 2000 (driven by the internet connectivity enabling realtime global supplychains). Neither Labour or National cared for over 30 years.

Up
6

Your second paragraph is my point. Greed for easy money got in the way of national health and resilience. That attitude is sinking us. Trade treaties are contributing and we either need to withdraw or renegotiate some of them.

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4

What would I do? I already suggested a couple of things (data centres, near-shore software development, science centres of excellence, continuing to grow from our existing competence in biology) above. I would add the potential for us to grow our space industry into satellite manufacturing.  We could grow the existing and successful model of tourism ownership that TGH are following in the Waikato to other regions, taking a larger slice of this pie.

Our national resilience is an issue I agree, but there is actually a very diversified set of suppliers so its not so much supply that is a concern but inflation getting away on as per Argentina.

 

 

 

Up
1

And how would you provide employment and a reasonable living standard for the ordinary kids who come out of school with no particular talent or skills? How would you ensure they have the means to provide for themselves and a family, to a reasonable standard of living and be able to save for retirement. Or don't they matter? Are you happy with $billions being spent on social welfare, and people getting frustrated and angry and then $billions being needed for prisons?

 

Up
2

Ordinary kids will fill the same jobs as they have now, service industries, infrastructure projects etc.  I am not wringing my hands at their plight, I wish them well of course. 

Our education system will provide us with western-culture enabled young adults.  This means they will be highly literate in social media, have a clear read on the rights and wrongs of identity politics etc.  They will be able to slot neatly into the welfare system we already have and that NZ'ers seem happy with.  Where is the problem?

 

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2

Did you forget the Sarc tag?

I simply cannot believe you are serious.

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3

Currently their are 352k working age people receiving a benefit out of the 4.2 million working age population. So 92% of the working age population do not require a benefit - that percentage has remained rather static over the last decade. The amout spent on these benefits is a small fraction compared to the giant moeny suck that is the non-means tested superannuation available to everyone over 65 years of age, which is the true major cost driving the governments debt spiral in New Zealand. 

With minimum wage now set at a significantly higher rate, the opportunity for our unskilled/non-educated working age population is not as grim as it once was. Living in a shared flat, 2 or 3 full time minimum wage workers can have a nice lifestyle and could start saving for their retirement early if they wanted too. If they choose not to that is on them.  

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2

So you and JAO believe it is OK that many Kiwis are struggling to survive?

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2

You should travel Murray, it will open your eyes to what it means to struggle to survive.

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1

I've done plenty of travelling and am well aware of what it is like in other countries. But that doesn't mean I am satisfied with the mess that has been created in our country. I firmly believe we can and should do much better, and refuse to accept the endemic, creeping corruption of the entitled. Democracy means everyone should be able to participate. Not everyone can go to university, not everyone can have a high tech job. But those other jobs are still essential for our communities to be safe and healthy and the people doing them deserve to be paid a decent wage for their efforts. They do not deserve to be dismissed or diminished because that is all they can do.

Up
3

The only one diminishing/dismissing those people appears to be you? I’m happy that minimum wage was increased substantially under labour, providing vastly higher income boosts for those on minimum wage than any other demographic over the last 6 years. I’m also happy for the government to continue supporting the 8% of the country currently claiming benefits, and did not mind at all the large benefit increases that happened under labour, along with all the other programs which benefited low income families. Ditto public housing, I’m a big believer in it (love the Singapore model). However you know who has received almost no help over the last 6 years? Middle income taxpayers. 6 years ago this wasn’t an issue, but here we are 6 years later inflation in necessities, tax bracket creep plus housing costs (either mortgage rates or rent) has vastly dented many middle class households ability to comfortably cope. They haven’t received commensurate pay rises to cope, and earn over the amount set to receive any sort of accommodation supplement etc, especially if they don’t have kids (WFF means nothing to the majority of New Zealand households). Labour screwed the pooch on this and lost the swing middle income voter.

Up
0

Try living on a minimum wage as it is now. Simply not survivable. You're coming across as patronising. I am a middle income earner, past retirement age but working as I cannot afford to retire. I live in the regions and see the lack of opportunity for ordinary kids, and really believe we must do better. As to the middle income failings I totally agree.

What I cannot understand in this country is the attitude that seems to ooze from government. Middle and lower income and wealth are supposed to be thankful we're just alive and able to serve. The upper income and wealthy are who should be sucked up to. Weird kind of entrenched attitudes that seem to have deep roots.

Up
0

$750 take home a week for 40hrs on minimum wage. That isn’t living, it’s existing.

Im not sure of my point here, I think the minimum wage is at the perfect price point at the moment and it’s up to the individual to climb the pay ladder. 

Rent - $200

Bills - $100

Food - $250

Petrol/transport - $100

 

 

 

 

 

 

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0

Who is spending $250 a week on food for one person? $100 is way more accurate.

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0

Nothing about their post is accurate :P

Who spends only $200/wk on rent, who then spends $100/wk on petrol?

Many industries don't have the ability to 'climb the payscale' - take teachers for example, who's pay scale is largely based on experience, and starts with a requirement (degree) that puts the starting rate less than minimum wage in-the-hand - with no allowance for local variance in living costs, so your early career teachers in Auckland are stuffed.

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0

Min wage is meant to be temporary- not a life career. It’s called upskilling. 

Up
0

yeah right.

"A 2020 UNICEF report found that only 64.4% of 15 year olds in the country have more than a basic proficiency in reading and maths, meaning 35.4% - over a third - struggle to read and write."

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2

Cadbury in Dunedin.  Very profitable as a stand alone.  But closed as it did not fit the objectives of the vast multinational.

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1

...they are moving toward more sustainable growth in pay and employment as the economic effects of the pandemic recede.

Forecast was 195k according to Bloomberg, that said wage growth at 5.9% for those staying in jobs and 9.5% for those changing jobs seems pretty healthy overall.

 

It seems the US is ploughing onwards economically and the rest of the OECD is getting left behind.

Up
4

Russo-Ukraine war has benefited the US, but not the rest of the OECD countries where the EU countries make up a substantial portion of the OECD

Up
2

Very impressed with Nicola Willis on Breakfast this morning.  Calm, knowledgable and a nice person, a future PM in my opinion.

Up
12

They've noticeably softened up her image in the past year...grooming her for the top job?

Up
5

I hope so, whist probably being a better "behind the scenes" operator Chris does not have her charisma or her bravery.

Up
3

Bravery..is she a war hero or something? 2IC in opposition is hardly brave.

Up
4

Bravery is not exclusive to our war heros, there are likely more than 2 or 3 people in NZ that are brave.

She is brave in her defence of National's position, she is direct and concise when correcting or interrupting.  Chris is too soft, too laid back.  Years of being trained to not offend has made him less effective.

Up
5

"Is it truly a wise notion to sell off parts of our country to foreign entities? 

Considering the option of selling off the belongings I left in my house to gain some personal benefit seems like a favorable idea?

I hold reservations about permitting foreigners to purchase portions of our national assets (a mere 15% seems far from prudent, it should ideally be 100%). However, the elimination of other tax incentive schemes appears to be a positive step.

Many other nations enforce stricter regulations to safeguard their assets. In contrast, our approach seems excessively lax."

Up
5

"I didn't like..."

Nguturoa, the vast majority of your posts come across as negative, I do hope you can find some positivity and happiness in your life.  

Edit; I see you edited your post since my reply.

Up
1

Yvil, I do hope you find some modesty, empathy and humility in your life.

Up
19

I hope so too HM, as these attributes are not my strengths.  Still my post to nguturoa was genuine, I hope he/she finds some happiness in their life.

Up
2

C'mon Yvil. Nguturoa is challenging National's policy on selling houses to foreigners, and you criticise him for being negative? Are you going to vote for National because you like Willis or because you have considered their policies? 

For too long our politicians have offered no vision and are driving us into a hole from which we will struggle to emerge. If this continues our only salvation could well be to became a state of Australia, China or the US. None of our parties seem to be able to see this.

Up
29

Another pointless comment from Yvil, just like this comment is from me to you.... pointless.  Perhaps restrain yourself next time.

Up
21

Wishing someone can find positivity and happiness is pointless...?  I beg to differ.

Up
1

Thanks kind Sir. I will certainly bring positivity to my life. 

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4

Wonderful, life is too short to be miserable.

Up
0

I thought being a "nice" was frowned upon here? Must be only be nice to some people is what you mean?

Up
3

A nice person of the female gender with a English Lit degree...last time we had someone similar,she was denigrated,now we are celebrating.."nice"

Up
5

Actually she was widely appreciated - within her own echo chamber. Which deflated.

Up
4

It's just the deeply rooted political tribalism in this country.  We haven't been to war for a long time, so our enemies are no longer in a country halfway around the world, they're our neighbors who vote for a different political party and made us feel like losers because our team didn't win the election.  

Up
4

That tribalism has been an issue for generations in a country with strong blue collar roots, but the problems runs deeper. Along with trying to make people feel like 'losers' when their party doesn't win the election, those who did win it then blame the other parties for the shambles their party inherited, when their party doesn't do anything to fix it either! They are all of an ilk, the only difference being the colour of their scarves!

Up
3

Depends if you listen with blue tinted hearing aids...Hosk gave her a bit of a grilling...what I got out of it was that she was confident they would get the additional tax income from offshore gambling sites & foreign buyers...when Hosk asked how could she be sure that income would be forthcoming...no answer.

When asked what plan B was if it didn't come in...no answer.

Up
6

"Depends if you listen with blue tinted hearing aids."

I'm not going to vote National.

Up
1

Good for you...I'm still deciding...seems to be a case of swapping one clown show for another at this stage..

Up
5

I'm voting Act, vman, probably not what you were hoping for.

Up
0

I don't waste energy 'hoping' whom someone might vote for,to each his own. 

Up
4

TPM?

😂

 

Up
1

To quote Stealers Wheel..."clowns to the left of me jokers to the right.."

Up
10

"TPM?" 😂 indeed!

Up
0

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/124044/national%E2%80%99s-self…

 "The fiscal plan also appears to have had no input from the National’s Revenue spokesperson Andrew Bayly. Mr Bayly knows that GST has been collected from online casino operators overseas since 2016 at a rate of about $37.8 million per year because of a recent Parliamentary question he asked,"  Edmonds said.

"We also challenge National to provide the costings for the claim that an average of $179 million per year could generate revenue of $716 million over the forecast period. As Andrew Bayly knows, in the seven years since GST has been collected, only a total of $170 million has come from online casinos," added Edmonds.

A bigger problem?

Tax specialist Terry Boucher said either National's numbers were optimistic or gambling was a much bigger problem than anyone realised.

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6

Yup. Pie in the sky numbers.

Up
10

She is pleasant, well spoken and at least seems competent enough. But she’s certainly not the sharpest intellect from what I have observed in parliament. I am far from convinced but it’s certainly time for a change and let’s see. 

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3

Yes this seems a hole in their policy defence.  This is not simple but quite achievable, the issue will be the administration.  The banks and telcos will have to come to the party and the Govt will need to manage the naughty list of sites (which will be most of them) that do not pay.

Up
1

Infintiely better than potato head Luxon. If national lose this election by a close margin, hindsight will say they could have courted that small amount of extra middle & female voters needed if they had been sensible and chose the much more personable Willis as leader.

Up
3

Be good if National could get there calculator up and running so I can work out exactly what I will be getting.

https://www.nationaltaxcalculator.com/2023 

Up
2

Yeah. Maybe if I get breadcrumbs from them, less than I thought, I may not vote in self interest. One thing is for sure, I won’t be voting Labour.

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2

It is much better for national if they dont get this calculator up - The numbers for most people / families will be a lot less than the “$250 a fortnight” billboard advertisements say (which will only apply if you are a dual income family in the perfect sweet spot). 

Up
2

The price of gold will start today at US$1944/oz and up another +US$7 from yesterday.

Back over the AUD3K price. In Kiwi pesos, more or less back at all-time highs

Your bank won't be offering you gold for your notes any time soon.

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2

Most of them don't even do foreign exchange anymore.

So I don't know why people would expect them to deal in alternate stores of wealth.

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2

From what I can tell our family will get a whole $25 a week from National's tax cuts, quite a distance to the advertised $250 (which they quite cleverly make per fortnight to make it sound better). 

Is it worth selling my soul to the devil for? In exchange we will get the following evil policies:

  • Reinstate interest deductibility
  • Remove clean car discount and other environment policies
  • Less house building (in the rich areas) with watered down NPS
  • Even more immigration on our stretched infrastructure
  • Higher house prices and rents
  • No new rail in Auckland, just more roads we don't need
  • Reduction in public services (there is no way selling houses overseas will pay for tax cuts)
  • No free buses for kids

Maybe we are better off with the useless party than the evil party! Or maybe I need to vote for the evil party to dilute the power of the truly awful ACT party. What a great election this has turned out to be. 

Up
24

JJ,I feel the same re who to vote for.Also agree this is a very slickly marketed package ,headline the $250 per fortnight,when did we start doing per fortnight?

Having worked for a company that Mr Luxury has worked for,it is similar to the old airline trick but in reverse,advertise $50 airfare to Oz,then work your way through the booking,+return,+taxes,+bags etc...end up at $800 fare.Then get on board to find reduced seat pitch,smaller meal offerings etc.

This reverses it: $250 per F/N-per week=$125,earn above $78k,reduced again,no kids,reduced again..now down to $25pw...or $1300p/a.Then real world,rates rise due to fiscal hole for Akl Council,$30 p/w lost through loss of free buses for under 13yo's,etc,etc...

Jeez,at this rate I'll be back voting for the handbrake.

Up
11
  • Up to $250 more per fortnight for an average-income family with kids
  • Up to $100 more per fortnight for an average-income household with no kids

Where did the $150 difference come from? Our kids don't pay any tax, how do they get a tax cut? Is it a really beefed up WFF? Last time I looked at WFF you had to be on min wage and have a dozen kids to get a cent. 

Up
0

Completely wrong. WFF is quite generous to levels quite far above minimum wage.

Up
5

From my reading it stops at $102,501 gross family income for 2 kids. 2 min wage earners earning $94,432 gross get a whopping $49.00 a week, anyone earning 10% more than min wage gets nothing.  Generous you say? Or am I reading it wrong?

Up
3

In fact, the ironic thing about working for families, is if you have one kid you can't possibly get it unless one adult is not working. Two full time min wage earners are not eligible as I read it. 

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2

The difference comes from their childcare subsidy policy

Up
2

Yes I see that now. Which they have conveniently called a tax cut.

What about "average-income family with kids at school", which is probably the average family considering daycare is only a small proportion of a child's life? False advertising is fine at election time.

Up
7

But the cost squeeze, as a generalisation, is much greater when kids are at daycare rather than primary school.

Up
0

True, but how long do people have multiple kids at daycare? And if you have 2 incomes in excess of 80k are you really that squeezed? 

You must admit the $250 a fortnight is pretty misleading, especially when they have mixed free daycare into their tax cuts policy. Most families will get less than $40 a week. 

Up
4

I was noting that yesterday. It is very misleading.

In tax cuts is $25 per week per person.

Unless you have daycare age kids, then you get the extra '$75' subsidy - $150 per fortnight. But if you have two year olds, that is offset by losing the free 20 hours for them that Labour promised. So then, at a cost of about $8 per hour, you are $160 per week worse off.

Bit miffed that media (including interest.co.nz) seem to fall for the $250 per fortnight for the average family tag line.

Up
4

How has "Mr Luxury" not been used by the media? That is a great name for him.

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4

Some good points and questions. 
Their package certainly will help the genuinely struggling middle, though. That’s good, and needed.

I think you and me are well above the ‘struggling middle’.

Up
1

From what I can tell, to get the full $125 a week you need to have:

1) 2 incomes in excess of $78,100

2) Be paying $300 a week in childcare and earn less than $140,000

How many families fit that description? Is it actually possible to get the $125 considering the above criteria?

Up
4

Maybe not , their middle is 120k, a number come about by including "investment" income. actual salary middle is $79k. Obviously these middlee and the squashed bottom are not getting much, if anything.

The message is clear , if you wern't smart enough to buy "investment" properties, you lose . In a lot of cases, big time. 

Up
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  • No new rail in Auckland, just more roads we don't need

Just on this, the NW busway they are proposing is either buses or light rail - they've said they'll pick whichever is best for the corridor. The firm commitment to actually build it is  avast improvement over what we have had for the last six years waiting for the Light Rail we were supposed to get. This is a vast improvement for anyone who actually has to deal with traffic in NW Auckland. 

As for 'more migration' - I'm not entirely sure that's fair, that seems to a mess already. Not sure that could get much worse as things stand. 

And the NPS on key transport routes only was a smart move, it concentrated development on where there were services to support it, not just where land was cheapest. The fact Labour couldn't add anymore rapid transit routes to save their lives was the main problem there. 

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Voting for Labour is like voting for another punch in the face.  Some like it I guess.

Interest deductibility is to save the rental market, admittedly at the cost of FHBs.  You can have the FHBs whining or more beneficiaries in the remaining Motels we have available a poor choice admitedly.

Between 31 October 2017 and 30 June 2022 Labour have built a total of 6,568 houses (Kāinga Ora) (as reported here - https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/10000-more-permanent-public-homes-a…).  Net migration in 2017 ALONE was 70,000 people! you do the math on how successful this clown show has been. (https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/net-migration-of-70000-in-december-2017-…)

There is no new rail in Auckland because it is a bad idea poorly implemented.  It needs to be put down in sympathy.

A reduction in the size of government is well, well overdue.  You mentioned a reduction in public services but perhaps you were joking, under Labour New Zealand has the highest youth suicide rates in the OECD yet the wait times for youth mental health services (non-urgent) are almost triple that of other age categories. 

National can simply not do worse.

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"Interest deductibility is to save the rental market": We have had interest deductibility forever yet rents are outrageous. Since Labour removed it rents have gone up less than inflation. 

You seem to forget that National did just as bad in their last term. People think they can fix and build things but JK and BE just broke everything. 

By the way I am not defending Labour, just saying that while they have done bugger all and increased spending, apparently that big increase in spending is well less than $25 a week per tax payer earning over $80k (most of National's tax cuts are actually funded by overseas house buyers). 

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Charging 15% on Foreign buyers does seem light but it is getting a revenue stream going that is untapped now.  If people think foreigners are not still buying our top end houses please simply take a walk about Remuera.

Nationals cuts are also funded by ending the Labour gravy train, and I think they are taking it easy by instructing departments to remove only $594 million/yr.  As someone who has worked in Welly for decades this could be achieved in a quarter let alone a year.

Scraping commercial building depreciation rules for $525 million/yr seems clever, however its likely to increase commercial rents over time.

ETS was a joke with no real ESG outcomes (big government stupidity) this is will be better directed now.

As someone not defending Labour you seem pretty consistently to do so lol, but families will benefit from this tax package.

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I think Act will push them harder on cost savings in all the ridiculously bloated ministries, they should be doubling those savings 

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Scraping commercial building depreciation rules for $525 million/yr seems clever, however its likely to increase commercial rents over time.

Labour actually announced this in their package, fail to see how either of them can be classed as clever.

Commercial rents are currently eye watering, however they do tend to follow the market, so they will be taking a bath over the next 24 months.

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I think one of the reasons rents haven’t gone up so much is because of the massive volumes of townhouse building. That’s a result of the Unitary Plan, which was a National Party initiative. Also we had almost no immigration for more than two years.

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"That’s a result of the Unitary Plan, which was a National Party initiative" - actually the Unitary Plan was a requirement of the amalgamation of the Auckland Council, so a Rodney Hide initiative. Bill English did give the council a couple of threats which I will give him credit for. 

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Ok.

The Nats made huge submissions which resulted in development capacity (and hence potential housing supply) doubling or tripling?

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Where would rents be without the Unitary Plan?

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I don't understand your thinking on building/rentals. New are already exempt .

"National can simply not do worse."

National caucus..... Challenge accepted.

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My thinking is that net-new rentals are a very, very small part of the market.  The majority of rentals are existing, over-priced stock that now operate at a loss due to the increase in interest rates.

If National do treat us to a "hold my beer" moment of spectacular and inventive incompetence then there is always Australia.

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"National can simply not do worse"

i think a lot of people will be surprised after the election and we may have a few ministers moved on in short order when they get found out they have no clue what they are doing, its easy in opposition to take pot shots but when your in charge who you going to take pot shots when things do not change but get worse,   the department head your in charge of? you can only blame the previous government for so long something labour forgot and people get tied of hearing 

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And those KO numbers are gross. Once demolition is factored in, the net numbers are pretty average.

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Yes I think people earning over 78k will basically get $25 extra pw. 

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If Labour were claiming a $250 tax cut but delivering a $25 tax cut, you would be outraged

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Ridiculous comment.

It’s pretty clear that some are getting $250 per fortnight (if childcare), but many aren’t. Is there anywhere you can point to that implies that everyone is getting ‘a $250 tax cut’?

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Its up to . 

OAP's tax savings are only $ 2 -3  a week .  But they are claiming they will get more because their benefits are based on after tax wages, so will go up. but where is the costing for that in the figures??? 

they will slip that over to the PREFU induced deficit forecasts, and blame it on Labour.

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"A family with children, on the average household income of $120,000, will be up to $250 a fortnight better off".  Don't you think that most families that have an income of $120,000 would expect to be getting something near $250, when in reality the vast majority will get less than $100. They could have said "A family with 2 children in daycare" but chose not to. Who would expect to need kids in daycare to get a tax cut? I consider it deliberately misleading and annoying to find out our family get so much less than that. 

Lotto may as well say "A family with children, on the average household income of $120,000, will be up to $25,000,000 better off if they buy a lotto ticket". Sure some might, but the vast majority wont. 

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You are right that it is quite misleading. At the very least painting a distorted picture.

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The second estimate of US Q2-2023 economic growth was market down slightly to an annualised +2.1% from the first estimate of +2.4% growth.

Add Q2 GDP To List Of Economic "Data" Revised Sharply Lower By Biden Administration

Finally, the BEA reported corporate profits decreased 0.4% at a quarterly rate in the second quarter after decreasing 4.1% in the first quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased 12.1% after decreasing 2.3 percent. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased 0.9% after decreasing 5.0 percent. Profits from the rest of the world (net)increased 4.4 percent after decreasing 2.0 percent. Corporate profits decreased 6.5 percent in the second quarter from one year ago.

Needless to say, all this is a far cry from the rebound in corporate profits that companies themselves reported in their various GAAP and non-GAAP metrics, which is to be expected in a world where there is now an uncrossable chasm between economic data and its government fabrications.

And now we wait for the Altanta Fed to slash its Q3 GDPNow estimate from 5.9% to 1%, because at this rate the final Q2 GDP revision next month will print well below 2.0%

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Putting billions into a development where you have not actually had the tax credits agreed/signed off that the business case relies on seems incompetent.  Share write-down on executive competence I suspect.

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I suspect those in charge took a gamble on the supposed never ending supply of green subsidies in one form or another. Unreliables and their cost chickens are slowly come home to roost. I also strongly suspect that net zero by 2050 in the EU countries and bar a few states in the US is taking a back seat, not withstanding any babble you hear from politicians and the CC alarmists.

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HISTORIC: Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro uses 100% Chinese-made components, incl’ chips. It was released the day US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo — behind sanctions stopping China importing certain chips — visited Beijing. Sanctions against China will only bite Washington’s ass.  Link

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Nope.  The Kirin 9000S (5 nm) CPU is an ARM design which is manufactured by China’s SMIC.  Unless China is going to ignore IP rights (which admittedly they have been relaxed about) they are still on the hook.

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So a chip made in China, at a Chinese factory, by a company part owned by the Chinese Government, is not a Chinese made chip? righto.

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If you want innovation you have to compete for it against other tax regeims, I think we need to remove excise tax on the first 300kl   we need a small cheese industry, hell we produce the milk well, incentivise the next 100 small cheese makers..... 

beat the aussies at their own game, remove tax from gaming companies but require them to  use NZ companies for music graphics etc....

More generous benefits to movies produced here, they bring employment to the regions.

how do we pay for it, reduce the waste, allocate healthcare based on need not race, look up the crims (jobs in prisons) its not hard..... but most of the political parties are so desperate they dont see the radical need to change, perhaps Bob Jones is right and Act will get 20%

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