A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; food spending leaves the rest of retail weak, fast rise in filled jobs, final GDP pieces in place, NZGB demand strong, swaps & NZD little-changed, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report so far today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today either.

FOOD GOBBLES UP HOUSEHOLD BUDGETS
Worldline (Paymark) reported that consumer spending in August through all Core Retail merchants (excluding Hospitality)was up +5.2% on August 2022, and up +17.8% on the same month in 2019. Higher spending on food meant that generally all other categories were down on the prior year. But spending spiked by around +$10 mln in the last week of August across several merchant groups, compared to the same days in the previous week, in a pattern most likely related to Father’s Day (3 September) – a positive kick-off to the spring and summer months ahead.

RETIRING AT 43 NOT OUT
Public Service Commissioner Peter Hughes today announced he will retire on 29 February, 2024. He turned 65 in May after 43 years in the public service.

LABOUR MARKET GIVES ECONOMY HEFT
Total actual filled jobs in the June 2023 quarter were 2.3 million. This was up from 2.2 million in the June 2022 quarter a rise of +3.7% which is a fast and accelerating rise, no doubt due to strong immigration. In the same year total gross earnings were up +8.7%, a +$13.1 bln boost. Healthcare payrolls rose by $1.8 bln (+10%), professional and technical payrolls by +$1.6 bln (+10%, and manufacturing payrolls were up +$1.2 bln (+7%).

SALES UP BUT NOT FINISHED GOODS STOCKS
Although manufacturing sales rose strongly in the June quarter from March, they were actually only marginally higher than year-ago levels (+0.4%) on a sales basis. But factories are running down stocks and have been on a year-on-year basis now for five quarters which is something of an unusual trend. But it should make manufacturers more resilient if a downturn is ahead.

A FEW MAKING GAINS
In the wider economy, most sectors aren't doing too well, but the averages are held up by good gains in business services, transport, construction, and the arts sector.

SOLID RELIABLE REVENUE GROWTH
One sector with stellar revenue growth is the local authority sector. Their rates and regulatory income was up +8.0% in the June quarter from a year ago, a level it has been maintaining for two years now.

MORE POLITICAL POLICY RELEASED
TOP has released election policy on Local Government, National on Tourism. You can find them compared here.

ALL ABOVE 5%
More than $1.5 bln was bid for the three NZGB bond tenders today with $500 mln on offer. The $225 mln May 2030 tranche was last offered ten weeks ago where the yield was 4.50% But today it went for a 5.00% yield. A similar yield (5.01%) was achieved for the May 2032 $175 mln tranche, but that was little-changed from two weeks ago (4.97%). The final $100 mln with an April 2037 maturity achieved a 5.13% yield today.

AN 18 MONTH LOW
For most non-oil countries, an +$8 bln monthly trade surplus would be something to celebrate. But not for Australia. Their trade surplus declined to +AU8.0 bln in July from a downwardly revised AU$10.3 bln in June, below market forecasts of a +AY$10 bln gain. It was the smallest trade surplus since February 2022, as exports shrank while imports rose.

SWAPS ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates were probably on hold today across the curve. But the real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp to 5.66%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up another +1 bp at 4.17%. The China 10 year bond rate is up another +2 bps at 2.68% continuing its rise. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps to 5.06%, and still above the earlier RBNZ fixing of 5.01% which was unchanged today. The UST 10 year yield is up +3 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.29%.

EQUITIES ALL LOWER
The NZX50 is essentially unchanged near today's close. But the ASX200 is down a sharp -1.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down a fractional -0.1% to start its Thursday trading. However Hong Kong is down -0.8% in early trade and Shanghai is down another -0.5% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session down -0.7%, uncertain about more rate hikes from the Fed.

GOLD SOFTER AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1919/oz and down another -US$6 from this time yesterday. Earlier it closed at US$1916/oz in New York, and earlier still in London it closed at US$1922/oz.

NZD MARGINALLY SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar has basically held at 58.7 USc from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are marginally softer 92.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 54.7 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 68.

BITCOIN IN TINY RETREAT
The bitcoin price is very little-changed from this time yesterday, now at US$25,755 down a mere -US$44 or -0.2%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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