Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
The Co-operative Bank has raised all fixed rates for terms 2 year and longer, but either +10 bps or +20 bps.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today.
STILL HIGH, BUT DECREASING
Supplier cost increases from suppliers to supermarkets, continued in August 2023, but the pace of growth continues to slow on an annual basis. The Infometrics-Foodstuffs Grocery Supplier Cost Index reports a +6.6% increase from a year ago in what suppliers charged supermarkets for goods in August. That is down from a sticky +10%+ in each of the six months through March.
BNZ MUST KEEP GLORIAVALE ACCOUNTS OPEN FOR NOW
The High Court's Justice Helen Cull has told BNZ it must keep Gloriavale's bank accounts open until substantive claims relating to the bank's desire to terminate its relationship with the christian community can be heard. Gloriavale has been unable to find alternative banking services since BNZ gave notice of plans to terminate the relationship in July 2022. Friday's ruling from Justice Cull keeps an interim injunction in place preventing BNZ from closing the accounts, pending resolution of the claims at trial. There are 16 Gloriavale entities with 83 BNZ accounts. BNZ moved to terminate the relationship because of human rights breaches. Both parties accept there hasn't been a breach of the contract terms by Gloriavale. At trial Gloriavale plans to claim breach of contract, breach of fiduciary duty and estoppel by convention. Justice Cull says there's a serious question to be tried on at least the breach of contract cause of action, thus Gloriavale's accounts should remain open pending final resolution of the claim.
DEMAND FOR NZGBs HIGH
Secondary market transactions in NZGB's are rising. There was $32 bln transacted last week, high but not as high as the $36 bln in the week before. NZGBs were included in the World Index from Nov-22 and around that time weekly transaction levels rose to as much as $59 bln as portfolios rebalanced to include them. Since, these levels settled down a bit but have stayed higher than before they were to be included in the World Index. It is a global appetite that will help distribution and demand if the PREFU indicates more NZGBs need to be issued. (But it won't save them from higher yields if that is the global trend.) The PREFU will be released "shortly after 1pm tomorrow (Tuesday, September 12, 2023.
MORE PARTY POLICY UPDATES
We have updated our Political Party Policy comparison service today with new policies from: ACT, on Housing, and National on both Health, and Social Housing.
CURRENCY OFFENSE
Bloomberg is reporting that Beijing is in full currency manipulation mode. The People’s Bank of China’s daily fixing was stronger-than-expected by a record margin and state-owned lenders were seen actively selling dollars, "according to traders who asked not to be named".
SWAPS RISE
Wholesale swap rates were probably higher today across the curve. But the real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.66%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps to 4.17%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.69%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +7 bps to 5.07%, and still well above the earlier RBNZ fixing of 4.95% which was down -2 bps today. The UST 10 year yield is up +4 bps from this morning, now at 4.30%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 is down -0.5% near today's close. The ASX200 is unchanged in early afternoon trade. Hong Kong is down -1.4% at its open, but Shanghai is up +0.5% (after Beijing leaned on its big insurers to 'buy'). Tokyo has opened its Monday trade down -0.3%. The S&P500 futures are actually quite positive, suggesting Wall Street may open more than +1% higher than Friday's close.
GOLD UP
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1923/oz and up +US$4 from this time morning.
NZD IN MINOR RISE
The Kiwi dollar has risen to 59.1 USc, and up +30 bps from this morning. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 92.2 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 55.1 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now just over 68.7.
BITCOIN BECALMED
The bitcoin price is becalmed, now at US$25,705 and only +US$20 above where we opened this morning. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.8%.
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