A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rate changes, mortgage lending turns up, truckometer not gloomy, benchmark rates jump, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
None to report today, so far at least.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.

A BOUNCE FROM A LOW BASE
New mortgage lending (C31) rose in August from a year ago, up +6.8% on that basis and confirming the rise in house sales transactions that REINZ earlier signaled. But it is first home buyers leading the return, with mortgage lending at more than +21% above year ago levels and up more than +10% above July levels. Existing homeowners are staying put though. Investors are coming back too, but more modestly. Having notes all that, none of the August 2023 data was anywhere near as strong as the August 2021 data. So yes, we are seeing a recovery, but from a lowish base.

NOT SO GLOOMY
The ANZ Truckometer monitoring threw up something of a surprise result - there was a "late winter flurry" of activity, belying the doomsters. Not only was that seen in more car traffic, the commercial traffic "rebounded" sharply in August from July. ANZ said they suspect the improvement is more to do with strong migration and improved tourism; individual households are still feeling the squeeze.

BUT AIRFARES WON'T BE GOING LOWER
Although it has had a successful trading period so far, Air NZ (AIR, #22) today declined to give investors any guidance of what its current year results will be. "Given the uncertainty and volatility of some of these macroeconomic factors, the airline will not be providing guidance at this time." The upcoming cost of fuel is a major concern. "Although we reported our annual results only four weeks ago, fuel prices have risen substantially higher, and the cost to purchase that fuel in USD is even more expensive due to the weaker New Zealand dollar. Inflation continues to bite, driving increased costs across the whole business." AirNZ shares have slipped slightly today but they are down -11% from September 4.

MORE ELECTION POLICY RELEASED
Labour has released new policy on Social Housing, and on Climate Change. The National Party released its "speed up the traffic" policy, as well as more on Benefits and Income Support, including reintroducing some sanctions. You can find these and much more in our policy comparison tool.

YIKES
In Australia, farmers are flooding markets with sheep, trying to offload them ahead of the expected stress from the El Nino weather change. The pressure is so strong, Meat & Livestock Australia said it will now report on all sales from AU$1/head, down from the previous low bound of AU$10/head. Most are not selling that low of course, but the MLA market monitors can see the change coming, and fast.

SWAPS JERK HIGHER AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are probably very much higher today and across the whole curve, especially at the long end. But the real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. However, the 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.71%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up a very sharp +12 bps from yesterday to 4.44%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 2.73%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +8 bps to 5.29%, and still well above the earlier RBNZ fixing of 5.20% which was up +4 bps today. The UST 10 year yield is up another very sharp +11 bps to 4.57%. The UST 2yr has risen on +2 bps, now at 5.14% so there is a strong curve steepening going on (or more accurately, a strong unwinding of the inversions).

EQUITIES MOSTLY WEAKER AGAIN
The NZX50 is little-changed near the close. The ASX200 is down -0.5% in early afternoon trade. Hong Kong has opened down -0.9% to start its Tuesday trade after falling -1.9% on Monday. Shanghai has opened down -0.2%. Tokyo is down -0.7% to start its Tuesday trade. The S&P500 ended its Monday trade up +0.4% in defiance of the bond market moves.

GOLD SOFTER
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$1916/oz and down -US$8 from this time yesterday.

NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is slightly firmer from this time yesterday, now at 59.7 USc and building on its recent gains. Against the Aussie we are up at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up at 56.4 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is up over 69.6 and a new 45 day high.

BITCOIN SLIPS A BIT MORE
The bitcoin price is marginally lower today, now at US$26,234 and down a mere -0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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